Those of us following the stock market read or hear the words, “Consumer Sentiment” almost every week. What is consumer sentiment? In the present, it’s what’s happening now. In the past, it may have been “irrational exuberance”. In the future, it’s applied as a guess to what might happen “next year”. It can be good, bad or indifferent. Most of the time, someone is trying to read into it and predict the future. I say, “Good Luck with that.”
Well, it’s clearly “that time of year”. We go out with friends, neighbors, relatives, associates, and clients. When they get together with us, they always ask, “How’s the market?” Most of the time I say, “It’s complicated, but I’d love to schedule a lunch, coffee or a visit to the office and give it the time and attention it really deserves”. Sometimes, people think this approach is too serious. Personally, when someone wants to know about the market, there is a deeper issue haunting the conversation, and it truly deserves our time and attention.
Or, they could just tune in here every week and read some of my market opinions right here. Well, this weeks RANT is ready for you! WOW, all I can say is WOW. Last week, Denver’s Residential Market just shut down and took the week off. Except for the Under Contract numbers, every category was down by at least 50% over previous weeks.
New Listing (551) Down
Back On Market (185) Down
Price Increase (66) Way Down
Price Decrease (641) Off by 2/3’s
Under Contract (1004) Down about 25%
Withdrawn (195) Down
Sold (795) Down
Expired (203) Down, but not the worst
So, you’re all looking at your each other asking, “Well Tom, what does it mean?”
Here’s what I believe to be true. We had a mid-week Thanksgiving as usual, but Thanksgiving this year is what they say “came early”. People went “Home”, people came to your home, people traveled, people rested and as far as the residential market goes, people said, “We’re going to visit my _________, and if it is still available when we return, we’ll take another look.”
Well, “Consumer Sentiment” may be saying something different to all of us, but right now, the sentiment is clearly saying, “Let’s take a break from the Denver Residential Market”. Let me be clear, this is not a bad thing, it just slows the “inevitable” down a bit. Buyers that may have done something this year are already thinking 2019. Sellers are already thinking 2019 because they think 2019 is over already. As you can see above, buyers are still in the market, and the Under Contract numbers are not great, but it wasn’t a bad week!
Let’s keep in touch, let’s create a plan, let’s add some science to this process. Let’s discuss your sentiment…tc
Tom & Dee Cryer TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com 303-773-3399