The Uncorked Kitchen & Wine Bar is not just for adults. We had the good fortune to chauffeur our two granddaughters to and from their cooking class last week. This was 7 – 12 year olds. Italian Food was on the menu. The exciting part is, they came home every day after class with food for the whole family. Since our granddaughters are still 6, it was a bit of scramble toward the end of the week, but they did it, and we had Mushroom Linguine, Calzones, a gazpacho, and more. we had been there before for an adult class/birthday party, and they do offer a friday afternoon FAC too! Enjoy…
| Denver Market Watch |
| New Listing (1570) This is way down from two weeks ago. | |
| Coming Soon (108) Similarly, way down from 2 weeks ago. | |
| Back On Market (294) | |
| Price Increase (92) | |
| Price Decrease (2748) Pretty much unchanged. The sellers and listing brokers are pricing off sold properties from better markets with better interest rates. It’s not working. | |
| Pending (1337) Not fantastic, but not a bad week considering we are going into a holiday. | |
| Withdrawn (279) | |
| Leased (0) | |
| Closed (1409) This included the last week of the month which always has the most closings, but nonetheless, a very good week. | |
| Expired (751) |
This week took on a dramatic change from two weeks ago. Take a look at the number of new listings down almost 900 from two weeks ago.
Let’s see how this translates into Total Active Supply.
We are seeing the end of June close out with 11,143 Active Single Family Residential Listings. Although the growth of this pool of listings has tapered, and may even have peaked, but this is the highest we’ve been in the last 10 years. Buyers have choices and the new 7 and 10 year ARMs are finally looking atrractive for borrowing buyer right now.
If you have questions about the Denver Residential Market, or for that matter, any market, we can put you in contact with experts around the US and around the world. Where is your next stop?
MyTownCryer 
When will Denver’s growth in Active Listings slow down and turn the other way?
Predicting exactly when Denver’s growth in active listings will slow down and reverse is challenging due to the dynamic nature of real estate markets, influenced by economic conditions, interest rates, migration patterns, and local policies. However, based on available data and trends through mid-2025, I can provide an informed analysis.Current Trends in Denver’s Active ListingsSignificant Inventory Growth: Denver’s housing market has seen a substantial increase in active listings in 2025. For instance, May 2025 reports indicate a 48.5% year-over-year increase in active listings, with over 10,000 homes for sale in April, nearly double the typical spring amount. Another source notes a 65% surge in listings in April 2025 compared to the previous year.
Recent Slowdown in Growth Rate: A post on X from June 28, 2025, suggests that inventory growth has already started to slow, dropping from a 60% year-over-year increase at Easter to 38% by late June, with new listings aligning closer to 2024 levels over the prior 6-8 weeks. The poster expects post-July 4th growth to be “muted” compared to recent years.
Seasonal Patterns: Historically, Denver sees a spike in listings from spring through September, with a seasonal slowdown from late November to early January. This suggests that the current high inventory growth may naturally taper off as the market enters the slower winter months.
Factors Influencing a Potential ReversalBuyer Demand: Despite the surge in inventory, buyer activity has cooled due to high mortgage rates (around 6.6%–6.86% for a 30-year fixed loan in 2025), economic uncertainty, and elevated home prices (median around $580,000–$615,000). Increased buyer engagement could absorb excess inventory, slowing growth or reducing listings. For example, a significant drop in mortgage rates could boost demand and stabilize inventory levels.
Seller Behavior: The easing of the “mortgage lock-in effect” (where homeowners with low-rate mortgages are reluctant to sell) has contributed to the listing surge. If sellers become more cautious due to price stagnation or declining values (e.g., a projected 8–9.1% drop in home values over the next 12 months if trends continue), new listings could decrease.
Economic and Migration Trends: Denver’s market has been affected by slowed job growth and migration compared to the pandemic-era boom. If economic conditions improve or migration picks up, demand could rise, reducing inventory. Conversely, continued economic uncertainty or outbound migration could sustain high inventory levels.
Seasonal Trends: The typical seasonal slowdown in new listings during late fall and winter (November–January) could naturally curb inventory growth. However, if buyer activity remains low, standing inventory may still accumulate.
Projected Timeline for Slowdown and ReversalShort-Term (Late 2025): The growth in active listings is likely to slow as the market approaches the seasonal slowdown in late November through early January. The X post from June 2025 suggests that new listing activity may already be moderating, with growth expected to be less pronounced after July 4th. If this trend holds, the rate of inventory growth could decelerate by Q4 2025, potentially stabilizing around 3–4 months of supply (currently 3.3 months in June 2025).
Potential Reversal (2026): A reversal in active listings (i.e., a decrease in inventory) would likely require a combination of increased buyer demand and reduced seller activity. This could occur in 2026 if:Mortgage Rates Drop: A significant decline in rates (e.g., below 6%) could spur buyer activity, absorbing inventory.
Economic Stabilization: Improved job growth or migration could boost demand, reducing the months of supply.
Seller Caution: If home values continue to soften (e.g., a projected 9.1% drop by mid-2026), sellers may list fewer homes, especially if they face price cuts (27%–37% of listings had reductions in 2025).
Seasonal Recovery: Spring 2026 could see a balanced market if buyer activity picks up with the typical seasonal increase in demand, potentially leading to a reduction in active listings.
Estimated TimelineSlowdown in Growth: Likely by late 2025 (Q4), as seasonal trends reduce new listings and the growth rate moderates, potentially dropping below the 38%–48.5% year-over-year increases seen in mid-2025.
Reversal (Inventory Decrease): Possible in mid-to-late 2026, contingent on increased buyer demand driven by lower mortgage rates or economic improvements. Without these catalysts, inventory may remain high or grow more slowly, maintaining a buyer’s market.
CaveatsUncertainty: Forecasts are speculative and depend on unpredictable factors like Federal Reserve policies, national economic trends, and local developments.
Data Limitations: While 2025 data shows clear trends, projections beyond mid-2026 are less certain due to potential shifts in market dynamics.
Regional Variations: Neighborhoods like Highlands, Sloan’s Lake, and Park Hill may see different trends due to their desirability and price points.
RecommendationFor a precise outlook, monitor monthly reports from sources like the Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR) or REcolorado, particularly for updates on new listings, closed sales, and median days on market. If you’re a buyer or seller, working with a local real estate professional can provide tailored insights into when inventory trends might shift in specific Denver neighborhoods.
If you’d like me to analyze specific data points (e.g., neighborhood-level trends or updated mortgage rate impacts), let me know!
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