01/18/2022 #TestimonialTuesday #DejaVuAllOverAgain #BareShelves

Let’s take a look at what’s happened in Denver Metro over the last 7 days.

New Listing (566) This is shaping up to be less supply than 2021,,,
Coming Soon (124). Low
Back On Market (103). Low
Price Increase (216)
Price Decrease (170)
Pending (1101) Where are buyers even finding these Listings to buy?
Withdrawn (71)
Leased (45)
Closed (808) Once again, buyers keep finding their way to the closing table!!!
Expired (89)
Over the Last 7 Days in the 11 Counties Around Denver

Well, what else happed in the last week?

Time frame is from Feb 2021 to Jan 2022
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’,
‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

I can not impress upon the reader of this much more than I have in the past. We actually have 6 fewer active listings than last week. SUPPLY IS IN SHORT SUPPLY. In more contemporary terms, the Denver Residential Market has #BareShelves.

We can write about #BlackSwans and #Headwinds, but when the day comes to an end, it’s all about Supply and Demand. We have no Supply and Demand remains strong.

#TestimonialTuesday

“My Realtor gave me great information. Answered all my questions in ways that I could easily understand and available for any concerns I might have.She was really ahead of the game on information needed by me to make good decisions in the selling of my home. No problems whatsoever. The pictures of my home really were indicative of what a great family home it would be. I am very thankful Dee was my Realtor”

One thing you will see from our Testimonials on at http://www.thecryerteam.com is we care. Every transaction is different. What one buyer needs, another doesn’t. What one seller needs, another doesn’t. But what every one of our clients needs is our time, engagement and care.

Until next week, #Denver50…

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01/11/2022 #NotaBot #RollTideRoll(Not) #HowBoutThemDawgs

As we ROLL (Not) into 2022, I’m going to take a guess. “What’s the market going to do?” is everyone’s question at hand. One year ago, I wrote this…

“Participating in the acquisition of a residential purchase has its challenges. From the early stages of qualifying to the late stages of time spent at the “closing table”, by now, I think we have “seen it all”. That, however, is never true. There is always something over the horizon we’ve never seen before, coming our way. Maybe that’s what keeps this business so interesting thus keeping our interest, who knows? We love it, and we love serving our Clients and Customers “every step of the way”. There is one thing for sure, the sun does always come up tomorrow….”

Well the more things change… Let’s do this right now.

New Listing (531) This is a clear indiction of continues supply shortage!
Coming Soon (122) This is below what we need to balance things out for the buyer.
Back On Market (116)
Price Increase (193)
Price Decrease (157)
Pending (1027) Hard to believe the buyer can still find this much inventory!
Withdrawn (82)
Leased (47)
Closed (1037) Once again, where is this inventory being found. Buyers have it rough!
Expired (96)
Supply and Demand in the 11 Counties surrounding Metro Denver.

With this graphic we can only conclude, 2022 will follow along in the same tracks as 2021, but wait, there’s more. 2022 has some headwinds 2021 did not face. 2021 Had extremely liberal monetary policy. In 2022, rates will be higher. It’s that simple.

The Path of Inventory Over the last 12 Months.

As we start the year with little over 1,000 Active Listings, Rates will have to increase even more to build inventory to a level considered favorable to buyers. That’s correct, we are starting 2022 with 1,017 active Single Family listings in the 11 counties. That is an extreme shortage when considering this geographic boundary represents about 3.25M people.

Why is the supply so low? Millennials are creating families, Boomers are “aging in place”, Xers are moving up, and new construction where consumers want to live is well above average prices for the area. So, what does this mean? The Sky Is Not Falling, but don’t get caught with your pants down, and please don’t do what “Stupid” does!

Give us a call, we’ll put you on the right track as your Trusted Advisors.

Dee & Tom

Kentwood Real Estate
4949 S. Niagara St. #400
Denver, CO 80237
303-638-3202

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#01/04/2022 #SupplyChain #Shortage #NewYear #TestimonialTuesday #DenverMarketWatch

Let’s get right into this for our first post in 2022. 2021 Was another remarkable year. We cleared the market and left the shelves bare.

Let’s look…

Starting the year with 1011 Active Listings for the 11 Counties of Denver Metro.

I was writing last year about our shortage of inventory when we had 4,000 active listings, but now we only have 1,011 Active Single Family Residences. Properties are selling before the sign goes up. Buyers are driving popular neighborhood like “Sharks in the Water”. Storage Pod? Let’s knock on the door… And, so it goes right into 2022.

BUT, what does this look like from an historical perspective? Like this…

10 Years of SFR Inventory History in the 11 Counties Around Denver.

From over 14,000 to right at 1,000 in 10 years. WOW! Does it make sense now? My goal is to demonstrate to you how robust we are on the buyer side and how we do not have inventory to satiate this demand on the seller side, and demonstrate the cold hard fact this is not changing anytime soon. I can’t tell you how many buyers we interviewed at this time in 2021. The instantly became discouraged, couldn’t take rejection and didn’t want to pay the price. Now, its 2022, inventory is even lower, demand remains unchanged, and to throw salt on that wound, interest rates are up a half a point. If you can’t trust your Realtor, get a new one!

For us, 2021 was a great year. We were blessed with two new little grandsons, Townes and then 12 days later Wesley came into this world. The market also blessed us with some really amazing sellers and incredible buyers willing to fight the good fight in a crazy market. We have so much gratitude for the referrals and testimonials. Thank You!

In closing, we’d like to share some recent testimonials. It’s true, Deirdre Rocks!!!

“Tom and Dee were outstanding! Their experience and expertise were an immense help. We primarily worked with Dee after our initial meeting and her insight into what to look for and assessing value was amazing. Even more so was her diligent follow through on every detail regarding getting information from the seller and insuring every detail was handled correctly. Dee made a complicated process incredibly easy for us because of her tenacious and tireless efforts.”
Marcus C.


“Dee and Tom were extremely helpful and added tremendous value!”
Juan P.


“The Cryer team is a gem of a team in Kentwood. We were fortunate to have partnered with them in this journey. Dee has been extremely thorough, methodical and phenomenal buyers agent. She is extremely dependable and wins the customer trust with facts, focus, thought out process and intention. She reads and discusses very frequently making sure we are on the right path, leads us to the right path when sometimes buyers could be emotional and not logical. Brilliant experience. Makes the Realtors world a better place with agents like Dee & Tom for buyers/sellers. We need more of them to make a better impression to the realtor community.”
Anitha T.


“Dee & Tom are a dynamic duo! My family has used realtors to buy homes in five states. The Cryer Team were exceptional. Their attention to our style, interest, and needs made our search for a home while out of state and in a difficult market feel easy. The whole process was the most seamless, organized, and stress free house purchase we have made. Dee & Tom have a unique approach in helping a family find a home but their approach works. We are in love with our neighborhood and our house.”
Nicole

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Merry Christmas and soon, a Happy New Year!

All the best to every living thing, and in the new year random acts of kindness are welcomed…tc

and a Happy New Year…
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Elliot’s Brief Blog for Friday, December 24, 2021

Christmas costs more…???

Tom Cryer Tom@kentwood.com
303-638-3202
TheCryerTeam.com

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Elliot Eisenberg, the Bowtie Economist" <elliot@graphsandlaughs.net>
Date: December 24, 2021 at 10:33:19 PM MST
To: tomcryer@me.com
Subject: Elliot’s Brief Blog for Friday, December 24, 2021
Reply-To: elliot@graphsandlaughs.net



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12/21/2021derful

Working from my phone today, and having missed last weeks post due to family business, I’m at a loss for words.

I’m not going to write about Denver’s residential market today. No change to report, but I am excited about what the future will bring.

A Sunset From Home

My father once told me the secret to a complete life was “Something To Do, Something To Love, and Something To Hope For…”. A lot of wisdom in these few words, but at the time I had no reason to believe he wasn’t the source. Turns out, this is biblical.

I can tell you after a lifetime of these words echoing in my head on occasion, Homeownership provides access to all three. Surely a home gives one something to do. I love my home, so how about you? There is no question one’s home provides great hope! Having had the blessing of living in my home for 29 years now, the hope it’s given has been beyond anything I could have believed.

When I’ve felt the world was going “to hell in a hand basket”, there was always my home providing shelter from from the storm! It’s a good life.

I’ve done my best to teach my children and now their children the wisdom of personal responsibility. We always had an expression in our home, “Everything you do affects somebody else”. Apparently, these life lessons have not been passed along throughout this world.

The pendulum swings, and I truly believe we will see the pendulum swing back to more reasonable times. Homeownership encourages families to grow roots, participation in community affairs and responsibility!

I guess we could say, homeownership has its own circle of life…

Last but not least, my father also said, “Be brief and be seated…” If you want to make the world a better place, encourage homeownership!

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12/07/2021derful #DayofInfamy #FreedomIsNotFree #PearlHarbor #80

My father served in the Navy. He arrived in the Pacific shortly after #PearlHarbor. He served as a Radar Specialist on a Troop Transport. He rarely if ever talked about his time in the Pacific Theatre, but he did tell me once, just once, “War is bad, and Nobody Wins”.

The weekly activity continues to show no stopping demand, but supply has decided not to attend the party. Clearly staying home was the plan…

New Listing (609) Too few…
Coming Soon (74)
Back On Market (154)
Price Increase (216)
Price Decrease (306)
Pending (1192) Strong seasonal demand…
Withdrawn (94)
Leased (50)
Closed (1776) Quite shocking! This would be a great week during the summer season!!
Expired (267)
REColorado.com over the last 7 days, above.

Below, we’ll take a look at our supply of active listing over the course of this year. It is readily apparent, but we are currently sitting on about a third of the inventory we had during mid-year. Take a look.

Denver Metro 11 Counties Active Listing for 2021

This market of limited supply has brought out the best and worst of all participants in this market. Buyers are fuming anger when they lose, and praising their heavenly father when they win. Sellers are ecstatic with this new price paradigm, but some want even more. This dichotomy has us constantly coaching our clients away from the rim of the cauldron. The market is hot, and our goal is to not let anyone get burned. Anyway you count them, 1,601 Active Listings is too few for a market this size.

When you head into this market, prepare, consult, plan and study. Anything less will only bring failure. We had a new listing this week. We had nearly 60 showings over the weekend, and we received 19 written offers. Upon review, we did everything correctly. We studied the market, reviewed the comparables and personally scouted the competitive inventory. The anomaly we couldn’t account for was how impactful the lack of inventory would be on this listing.

I guess the moral of this story is, “The Market is not always kind”. Nothing could be more true. For buyers, nothing could be more true. Take the time to head into this market with a “battle tested” team of professionals. Your broker, your lender, your inspectors, and your partner should all understand the goal and carry laser focus. It’s not that hard, but it does take experience and professionalism.

Let’s talk… 303-638-3202

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11/30/2021derful #HennyPenny #SwimmingNaked #ForrestGump

The sky is not falling. Overextending oneself only serves to create problems when the tide goes out. “Stupid is as stupid does.”

I like to check in on Twitter. On Tuesday mornings when I’m writing this, I get inspiration from what’s trending. First, the media is going to do everything in its power to create a negative out of a positive, but the sky is not falling. Because a market goes up, it is not a bad thing. But, if you overextend yourself, we will see you “naked”. Following blindly into the abyss will certainly expose your stupidity.

Since we’ve explored the wisdom of a fairy tail, Warren Buffet and Forrest Gump, let’s see what the numbers are saying over the last 7 days.

New Listing (352) I’ve never seen this number so low. It’s a great time to put your home on the market; no question about it…
Coming Soon (94) One of these is ours, and I can tell you from experience, this is a great time to put your home on the market!
Back On Market (123)
Price Increase (103)
Price Decrease (183)
Pending (903) Seasonally low, and nothing to be concerned about.
Withdrawn (75) Off the market for the holidays… FYI “Over priced”.
Leased (50)
Closed (973) Once again, seasonally low.
Expired (107)
REColorado Denver Metro 11 Counties Over the Last 7 Days

The above chart tells a story, but it also forces us to ask questions. The chart below this will try to answer some of those questions.

Time frame is from Dec 2020 to Nov 2021
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

November is closed out for all intents and purposes right now. It is showing 1,648 Active Listings today. This is extremely low. It may set a record.

Why is the supply so low. Millennials are creating families, Boomers are “aging in place”, Xers are moving up, and new construction where consumers what to live is well above average prices for the area. So, what does this mean? The Sky Is Not Falling, but don’t get caught with your pants down, and please don’t do what Stupid does!

Give us a call, we’ll put you on the right track as your Trusted Advisors.

Kentwood Real Estate
4949 S. Niagara St. #400
Denver, CO 80237
303-638-3202

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11/23/2021derful #HappyBirthday #HappyThanksgiving #DenverNewsAlert #StalemateMarket #WhoYaGonnaCall

There comes a time in any market when buyers and sellers drift apart. Buyers always want last year’s prices. Sellers want next years prices. Our Denver market will drift closer and closer to this hypothesis. I use the term drift, because it will not be a flash overnight, but time will pass, and we will drift into this new “stalemate market”. But, we are not there yet, so let’s take a “look see” at what’s going on with the #DenverMarketWatch today.

Over the last 7 days, this is what has happened in Denver Metro.

New Listing (691) To Low!
Coming Soon (37) Even Lower!!!
Back On Market (171)
Price Increase (185)
Price Decrease (418)
Pending (1429) Simply Amazing Demand!!!
Withdrawn (128)
Leased (45)
Closed (1611) “Big Wheel Keeps on Turnin'”
Expired (152)
REColorado over the last 7 days Denver Metro.

As you can see above, strong weekly numbers continue to “amaze” in this market. With no inventory coming on the market, for me, this would be the perfect time to go Active in this market.

Let’s see how this looks year to date:

Time frame is from Jan 2021 to Nov 2021
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’,
‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

As you can see above, closed properties in blue, and active listings in green, demand is out stripping supply, and it is indicative of a market going into 22Q1 as an exact replica of 21Q1, and we all know what happened last spring. Crazy supply and demand ratios, and it will happen again in 2022.

#WhoYaGonnaCall

Dee & Tom Cryer, SCRP
Broker Associates
THE CRYER TEAM
Kentwood Real Estate
4949 S. Niagara St. #400
Denver, CO 80237
303-638-3202

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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11/16/2021derful #BuytheDip #WhoKnew #FoolsandNewcomers #BetterThanZillow?

This week is not much different from any week we’ve reported on this year. Too few new listings, strong under contract demand, and closings happening at an extremely high percentage of those contracts. Buyers and Sellers are still getting these deals to closing at an unprecedented rate. Take a look.

New Listing (732) The lowest I’ve observed all year.
Coming Soon (102) The lowest I’ve observed this year.
Back On Market (204)
Price Increase (102)
Price Decrease (508)
Pending (1517) A very strong number for this time of year.
Withdrawn (151)
Leased (60)
Closed (1536) This is a mid season number reflecting the buyers’ desire to complete the “Deal”…
Expired (148)
The MLS Over the Last 7 Days

Below is the trend of Listings over the last 10 years…

Time frame is from Jan 2011 to Oct 2021
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘
Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

As you can see, inventory/supply of Single Family Homes in our 11 county Denver Metro Market continues to shrink as we move into year’s end. This can only mean Q1’22 will be a Field Day for sellers. Putting one’s home on the market in early January will be a smart move. Putting one’s home on the market right now, might be even smarter…

The market has transcended into a neighborhood by neighborhood analysis for accurate value predictions. Comparing your home or shopping for a new homes with a Macro approach will not serve you well. Market’s are LOCAL. Never forget this. Location, Location, Location and Timing, Timing, Timing will always serve you well.

So, if we address the Hashtags above, There will be no dip very soon, We did, Predicting the future, and remember, even the best Algorithm is just that. If you’ve been searching for “Boots on the Ground”… Please let us guide you through the Market Fog. We’ll be there for you every step of the way…

Dee & Tom Cryer, SCRP
Broker Associates
THE CRYER TEAM
Kentwood Real Estate
4949 S. Niagara St. #400
Denver, CO 80237
303-638-3202
Th

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