12/06/2020 #Don’tQuitYourDaydream #Backyard #PlanB

Good Morning America,

When you hear or read “Homeownership is Dead”, do not believe it! Homeownership will outlive Blackrock’s home buying spree, and the #Daydream of ownership will survive! Who really wants to live without a #Backyard? Really???

So, #PlanB is really about the enjoyment of #homeownership. It’s not the size of the home, it’s the home in the home. Do you get me? Probably not. The backyard might be a balcony, the parking lot or the park down the street. Either way, you’re not the only one competing for ownership. Funds on Wall Street are buying houses, lots and apartments.

Americans for Financial Reform estimates that, as of June 2022, private equity firms owned real estate rented by around 1.6 million households. This includes at least 1,071,056 apartment units, 275,468 manufactured home lots, and over 239,018 single-family rental homes.Jul 27, 2022

But, I digress. What’s going on in Denver this week?

New Listing (744) No dramatic change from last week here.
Coming Soon (56)
Back On Market (246)
Price Increase (101)
Price Decrease (1202)
Pending (868) Actually, this is quite strong coming off a holiday week.
Withdrawn (278)
Leased (61)
Closed (1118) Wow, month end activity and December’s start is reportedly strong here!
Expired (676) Let’s quit for the holidays???

Based on the season, interest rates and inflation, I could argue this market is warding off everything thrown at it. It’s a great time to find “your neighborhood”…

Overall, Supply and Demand remain in check. There is not real damage being done for the time being by these higher rates. Keep in mind, whenever the market throws you lemons, look around for some sugar; lemonade can’t be far behind.

We have not seen inventory this low since late May or early June of this year. At 5,361 Active SFR Listings right now, the ratio of sales to inventory is predicting a Days on Market for December in or around 30 DOM. This is historically a very good market environment. I’m not reporting we have nothing to worry about, there is always something to worry about, but “Henny Penny” the sky is not falling…tc

We are here for your residential needs. We’re The Cryer Team, and Denver is our market… TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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11/29/2022 #FIFA #WorldCup #Broncos #Inventory

What do #FIFA and #Broncos have in common? I’ll leave the answer to you, but my goodness, watching a #Bronco Game is simply painful.

This week’s theme is #Inventory, or simply put, the lack of it. Additionally, we will talk about the demand side a little too. “Where have all the buyers gone, long time passing…”

Looking back over 2022, Sales vs. Listings we can learn a lot. More Listings, More Sales, Fewer Listings Fewer Sales. Is it just that easy?

First, the chart above is telling us, we are ending the year with about the same number of closings with which we started the year. This is healthy. In spite of interest rates, and elections, supply shortages and more, we still have a “healthy” market in Denver. As always, this is the 11 counties including Denver we consider as Metro Denver. Much maligned as rapidly growing inventory and over supply, we have about the same number of listings as we did in 2020, 2019 and 2018 going into December. No oversupply here, and quite healthy from a historical perspective. And, it is telling us that 2021 was really an anomaly where market conditions of incredibly low supply artificially altered the course of this market.

Denver Metro still has an incredibly healthy economy. No major layoffs announced here, hiring is still a thing, airport traffic is still strong, transportation/distribution still strong, tourism still strong, university student enrollment still strong, and population growth still strong. Let’s explore this over the last week now.

New Listing (426) This is incredibly low. AS you can see, about 50% more listings went Pending than came on the market.
Coming Soon (59) This will not help us next week; it’s just too low!
Back On Market (143)
Price Increase (75)
Price Decrease (763)
Pending (672) Considering the number of new listings coming to market, this number is incredibly strong!
Withdrawn (222)
Leased (58)
Closed (651) And, once again, Buyers and Sellers are finding their way to the closing table even during a holiday week. This is a good market!
Expired (200)

I will caveat all this by saying, BUYERS are scared. Interest rates and the market “topping out” are weighing heavy on their psyche. SELLERS on the other hand have a different problem. “Do I lower the price now, or wait till next year? Rates will be better then.” Decisions, Decisions, Decisions…

It’s a complicated market, it demands a lot from both buyers and sellers. This is where we come in. We’ve been there. Market cycles are constant in our market, but we still have buyers, we still have sellers and we are assisting both with their needs in a complex Denver Metro Market…tc

If you have questions, call us! Dee and Tom Cryer 303-773-3399 TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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11/22/2022 #NewTwitter #AtlasShrugged #Tyrus #HillbillyElegy

Good Morning Folks!

So much has happened in the last week! Taken all at once, it is mighty tough to take. As Warren Zevon wrote, “Send Lawyers, Guns and Money…”. Probably not the best metaphor, but…

Let’s start with #NewTwitter. With the advent of @ElonMusk in ownership, @Twitter is not the same! I have been a @Twitter user ever since I figured out what a #Hashtag was. It does a great job of aggregating current events quickly. It allows me to follow someone of my interest. It facilitates keeping in the know. I have to tell you, it is different now. I’ve seeing search results and tweets from topics and people I’ve never seen before. It seems wide open. The wild west if you will…

Books I recommend. I am going to recommend #AtlasShrugged ’til the day I die. I believe it is that important. Many believe if you read and like #AtlasShrugged it is unhealthy. They have not read it in the context of today’s current events. #Tyrus is a book about @Tyrus written by @Tyrus. The life and times of George Murdock. Not everyone had a childhood like me, and @Tyrus has his own story. Read it. Or, listen to it, he reads his own book. Finally, J. D. Vance wrote Hillbilly Elegy in an attempt to tell his story and the story of #Opioids and their impact on an entire community. It’s a good read. Much better than the movie. And, in current events, J.D. was just elected as a Senator from Ohio. I’m not one to preach, but if one was to read or listen to these three books, one would have a much better appreciation for current events. Remember, #AtlasShrugged was written in 1957. #JeffBezos is in it, #ElonMush is in it, recognizable people in politics today are in it, and the constant friction between economic classes is in it. It’s today written in 1957.

That’s enough of me #proselytizing. This week in Denver’s MLS System, the numbers are clearly heading into the Holiday Season!

New Listing (730) “Where have all the sellers gone, long time passing…”
Coming Soon (30)
Back On Market (208)
Price Increase (149)
Price Decrease (1253) Sellers and Brokers still finding their way, but slowly…
Pending (965) A pretty strong number. This is cleaning up year end inventory!

Withdrawn (260)
Leased (50)
Closed (1035) Buyers and Sellers finding their way to the closing table.
Expired (304) A few still giving up each week.

Long story short here; buyers are still looking and making deals; sellers are slowly giving up and hoping for next year to be something bigger. Tough call on these plans. Will rates be down. Will employment numbers in Denver remain strong. Will the prevailing interest in the market stay the same for both buyer and seller? Only time will tell. Stay Tuned!

Let’s take a fresh look at inventory one more time.

Let’s check in on how many Active Listings we have this morning.

And, year over year, it looks like this with just 5,467 Active Single Family Residences.

As you can see, we ended last year with unusually low SFR inventory, but we have been normalizing throughout the year. As noted above, 5,467 Active Listings is not only a healthy number for Denver, it represents a slight opportunity for buyers. If rates were to stabilize at a lower level than today, which they could, we will continue to see Denver as one of the most healthy markets around…tc

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

303-773-3399

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11/15/2022 #TuesdayVibe #Aggregators #MortgageRates #Homeownership #ElectionResults

Welcome, Good Morning, Ride Along!

As we move well into Q4, there is a lot to talk about.

First of all, #TuesdayVibe. In the Real Estate business, maybe more so than any business, there are “Coaching Legends”. Let’s see, Tom Hopkins, Howard Britton, Tom Ferry, Brian Buffini, and many more. What does this have to do with Tuesday? Some weeks, I sit down, and this post is finished in 15 minutes. This morning, after a fabulous weekend, I was at a loss for words. Then I saw this. “You don’t know what you’ve lost until its gone”…

And why is this? I don’t know, but as the Mandalorian would say, “This is the way”.

#Aggregators, whether you know it or not, are ruling your life. News, Data, Image, Entertainment, and just think about it; almost everything in our lives is ruled by aggregators. Your food? Yep! The grocery store you visit has brought together the items it feels you will be more attracted to while selling more items. News, yep! Keep this in mind. Even Real Estate is aggregated for you. Health Care, yep… You name it, it has been bundled and delivered to you in a manner the provider understands to be the most attractive and productive. Not all real estate aggregators are working for you!

#MortgageRates continue to be volatile, but this last week or so, they have been volatile in a downward direction. Having lived through a window of time where mortgage rates topped out at 17.5%, I hope our world does not have to do this again!!!

#Homeownership is important. If you follow us anywhere we post, you’ve seen our devotion to homeownership. I’m no political pundit, but I believe, I’m a great observer. And, I did not see a single campaign focus on #Homeownership! Not one. Did you know, over 90% of homeowners vote. Did you know only about 60% of non-homeowners vote. Whether you believe elections are rigged or fair, I believe #Homeownership brings people into focus with their neighbors, community, town, state and country. Over the next couple of years, let’s identify candidates who believe in #HomeOwnShip as much as we do!

Well, with all this blab out of they way, let’s talk Denver Real Estate.

New Listing (947) Similar to last week, not a lot here to bloat the market with competition!
Coming Soon (81)
Back On Market (211)
Price Increase (119)
Price Decrease (1567) Sellers still struggling with appropriate pricing right out of the chute.
Pending (935) This is a strong number on the same path as New Listings. Growth of Inventory still unlikely.
Withdrawn (296)
Leased (55)
Closed (811) Dropping off here may be a trend toward more inventory. We’ll just have to watch.
Expired (233)

Well then, what has happened with total SFR inventory levels?

We’ve observed all this confusion from midyear on, and the result is inventory of SFRs in Denver moving from 6,300 to 6,600. Still nothing here to see. I think the biggest thing to take from the numbers today is “Nobody is selling and Nobody is buying” is not true. Some are selling and some are buying is completely true. The market has a bit more balance today than it did during the early months of this year.

PREDICTION? Maybe we will get continued relief on rates; even a little would ease the anxiety of buyers committing to 30 years of something twice as high as just one year ago…

In the interim, as we always profess, residential real estate markets are complicated. If it was easy, all the online buyers would be making money. They are not, and some have even given up on the service of buying your home quickly for “Top Dollar”. Give us a call, 303-773-3399 or send us a note TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com and we will sit down with you, talk through your ideas, and you will walk away with a Home Buyer Plan or a Home Seller Plan. We’ve helped so many people this year, and it makes us proud to be of their service so many times. One family we helped Buy or Sell 9 times, another 7, another 6 and many of our past clients have worked with us 5 times. That’s the true #TestimonialTuesday…tc

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11/08/2022 #BuyDowns #Arms #PowerBall and #TheElection

It’s happening right here, right now and right in front of us. There will be more to come on this, but as we continue down this road of higher interest rates, we will once again, #What’sOldIsNewAgain, see Buy Downs as a commonly employed tool in the homesale arena. Builders are offering buydowns on their standing inventory, sellers are offering credits for buydowns so that their buyers will pay full list price (?), and of course lenders are stumbling over each other handle this type of transaction.

Along with buydowns, ARMs have risen from the dead and are now in play again. Adjustable Rate Mortgages can affordably provide a buyer with a lower rate for the first 1, 2 or 3 years of the mortgage, nad theoretically, rates are lower going into year for and the borrower refinances to a lower rate. Our tool box is full of fun things. Come take a look…

OK, this is too strange. POWERBALL??? When the bet is $2 for a chance at a billion, I had to buy a ticket or two,,,, Turns out, there is some sort of security protocol slowing down the announcement of the numbers last night. Sure that I will win, this has caused me some disconsternation to no end as I’m sure it has you too!!!

Finally, other than the #Astros winning a World Series, let’s talk briefly about the election. What ever happens over the next few days, let’s remember, “The Sun will come. up…” and life will go on. Dee and I will continue to bring the joys of home ownership to our clients, and life will be good.

So, what happened in the last week in our Denver MLS? And, all I can say is Holy Mackerel!!! 

New Listing (997) By far one of the lowest number of Listings in quite a while…!!!
Coming Soon (91) And, this doesn’t help much.
Back On Market (242)
Price Increase (74)
Price Decrease (1556) Wowser, Wowser, Wowser! Does anyone really know?
Pending (943) Keeping up with New Listings, but not much else.
Withdrawn (264)
Leased (63)
Closed (918) Buyers and Sellers still managing to get to the closing table!
Expired (567)

Anecdotally, we found a FSBO listing and closed last week. FSBOs are always so interesting.  But, add one more to that list above, so it’s really 919 at least.

Finally, The next two Charts will show you the number of Active Listings on the market and the direction of Average Price. Nothing but fun here today!

And now for Average Prices…

Now, I’d like to write and write and write like the national guys/gals do about the market is heading for catastrophe. The 1980s in Denver was a catastrophe. Brokers would take their signs down, because there would be too many on one street. Builders would walk away from entire developments due to the lack of sales activity. And, then there was 2008 when speculative borrowers and unassuming homeowners would just walk away from their property do to lack of rent or equity and a job offer in another city, and I could go on. This just doesn’t look like a market trending toward the edge of a cliff.

I could be wrong, and we are ready to discuss your goals and fears. Give us a call… TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com 303-773-3399 at your convenience…tc

Tom Cryer, SCRP
Broker Associate
THE CRYER TEAM
Kentwood Real Estate
4949 S. Niagara St. #400
Denver, CO 80237
303-638-3202
Tom@Kentwood.com

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11/01/2022 #Rates #Inflation #Election #Pots&Pans #Elon

Good Morning Everyone!

I was navigating the Arizona Strip last week. We had three days of absolutely no cell service. To the north of us one night at camp, one of the other camp parties had Elon’s new #Starlink satellite communications dish, and one of the campers was actually “facetiming” with his son before bedtime. I don’t care if you love him, or hate him, #ElonMusk delivers on innovation after innovation. Sleeping on his office floor is really paying off.

I was at Sam’s Club over the weekend, and the #Pots&Pans salesman was standing there alone, so I struck up a conversation. He was very clear and concise, “People are not ‘pulling the trigger’ like they were earlier in the year”. If that is not grassroots analysis, I don’t know what is.

Rates continue to inhibit residential sales activity. Our buyer clients from earlier in the year are thankful for the rate they have locked in, but frightened as to what may happen to values.

I was at a little Halloween Party last night with a largely Millennial population, and they are experiencing inflation for the first time in their lives. “Can you believe how much eggs have gone up?” On a side note, I paid $6.50 for premium in AZ last week! Anyway, it will be interesting to follow these new generations and their reaction to economic events unfaced before.

Finally, I can’t remember any election in my adult lifetime when a dramatic TV ad didn’t come on demonstrating the importance of an election. “This election is more important to our future than any election ever in the history of mankind.” Well, we will all wake up on 9th, the business channel will still be on, cartoons will still be playing and around 11 or 12 the mail will arrive. Life goes on. I visited the Mount Trumbull Schoolhouse last week. A one room schoolhouse 70 miles down a dirt road attended in 1900. I imagine the kids attending there a hundred years ago managed their way through life. We will too. My point? Elections are important. It is a good thing to be a well informed voter. It’s a good think to vote. Protecting the rights of homeownership is very important, and creating better pathways to homeownership can only strengthen our neighborhoods, our cities, our states and our country.

Let’s take a look at the last 7 days in Denver’s Residential Market. If this isn’t remensient of the malaise in the market almost always around an “important election” I don’t know what is…

New Listing (970) Nothing to buy, anywhere!
Coming Soon (111) Not much happening here either.
Back On Market (264)
Price Increase (80)
Price Decrease (1564)
Pending (959) Still keeping up with new active listings!
Withdrawn (256) Sellers giving up, why?
Leased (69)
Closed (1086) A strong week in spite of the surrounding events of the day.
Expired (593) This is a big number. These sellers gave up! Why?

Next, how does all this appear in historic perspective? This is what our next chart shows us.

Clearly, the expansion of inventory for the time being has subsided. Above, we can postulate on all the reasons the market is doing what it is doing, but long story short, we have reached a level of “balance”; maybe seasonal, maybe consternation, maybe procrastination, who knows. We will get through this, and homeownership will prevail.

The buy sell process within homeownership is complicated. We are here to help you. Give us a call. We take a unique approach. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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10/18/2022 #WildHorses #BlackSwan #TheDollar

Good Morning Interested People!

The fall season has clearly arrived. A few weeks ago, Dee and I took the day to visit the last of the Aspen colors for 2022. As you can see see in the background, the white stuff is finding its way onto our high peaks.

FAll 2022 Boreas Pass

We find ourselves in the second or third week in a row of growing Single Family Inventory after it had flattened. This trend has been around 100 per week, so this is not very concerning, and I believe the #BlackSwan of #InterestRates is being absorbed and understood to date. Long term if they continue their upward trends, it will grind this market to a halt. Let’s keep a close eye on this one.

The wild horses of early this year and several years past are slowing their gate. Offers with no contingencies are all but lost in this market. Buyers have become extremely cautious! Sellers are even considering Contingent on Sale Offers, but this is not a big trend yet. Seller concessions are impacting almost every transaction. Time will tell a new story.

Last but not least is the Dollar. Around the world against other currencies, the Dollar is so strong, it is impacting US exports. As an example, when I was in Canada this summer, the Canadian Dollar was about .80c to the US Dollar. Today it is .72c. This makes global trade more complicated for US business around the world. Believe it or not, this is impactful to the US residential market. It is even having a positive impact on lowering construction materials coming from Canada in the form of wood products and energy.

The weekly numbers below are not threatening, and given the circumstances can be construed as positive.

New Listing (1220). This is pretty much like the last few weeks with no big rush to sell here.
Coming Soon (118)
Back On Market (243) No big concern here. This number is actually down a little bit.
Price Increase (124)
Price Decrease (1895). This continues to be the story in this market. Sellers are being to optimistic with their starting list prices. This is requiring 1, 2, and 3 reductions before sale.
Pending (1013). A pretty good week. Between cash buyers and well qualified borrowers, the market continues to be the market.
Withdrawn (261)
Leased (91)
Closed (1074). A pretty good week. Not record breaking, but it is pretty good.
Expired (272)

The big image below is clearly painting a picture of No Big News Here, Yet.

Let’s all take a great big breath. We’ve had statistical run of almost 10 years of positive market trends. It’s time for a breather. Residential Real Estate is a long term investment also providing shelter and security. Let’s not forget this.

As always, Dee and I would be happy to take your calls, answer your questions and help with the creation of a Buyer’s Plan or Seller’s Plan. Please give us an hour and we’ll provide a valuable path to follow. In the meantime enjoy life…

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

#TestimonialTuesday

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10/11/2022 #Who’sAffraid #YouGottaBe #TerrificTuesday

Warren Buffet is often credited with the quote, “When people are greedy, be fearful, but when people are fearful, be greedy”, and I suppose this advice would serve us well right now. There is a lot of fear on the street right now. Investors fear the market, Buyers fear the rates, Voters fear the “other party”, Russia fears Ukraine, North Korea fears South, some people fear everything and others fear nothing. Where do you stand. Do you believe #HomeOwnership is something to be feared? If you have studied the market and believe in homeownership, there should be no fear.

Des’ree performed a very popular “one hit wonder” called “You Gotta Be”. One of the verses goes like this.

Time asks no questions, it goes on without you
Leaving you behind if you can't stand the pace
The world keeps on spinning
Can't stop it if you tried to
The best part is danger staring you in the face, oh
Terrific Tuesday

I guess my point today is over simplified with so much turmoil surrounding us all. When one has a home to return to after a day of the “hustle and bustle”, it is a feeling of secure comfort. So go ahead, enjoy a Terrific Tuesday…

The “brittle edges” I wrote about last week are becoming more apparent. New Listings are greater than Pending UC Listings and Closed Listings. This is pushing the market toward a balance, but as the fed pushes rates, they may impact supply and demand ratios. We will be watching this very closely. Additionally, Price Adjustments are becoming a common thing as the market is failing to adjust on the front end of the listing and causing extending marketing times too.

Here’s what the numbers look like over the last 7 days…

New Listing (1220)
Coming Soon (132)
Back On Market (360)
Price Increase (163)
Price Decrease (1967)
Pending (1024)
Withdrawn (284)
Leased (57)
Closed (949)
Expired (268)

As you can see below, the total number of Active Listings has flatlined. We are keeping a very close eye on this. If total supply starts to outstrip demand, this will become a market with cause for fear?

The last 3 months have ended with 7,300 Listing in July, 6,914 Listings in August and not 6,979 at the end of September. We will keep a close eye on how October closes out.

Active Single Family Listings in Metro Denver over the last 10 years.

We are going through a dramatic period of uncertainty right now. Dee and I will be here for you. Answering questions, providing expertise, helping you make plans, finding resources, and making sure your home is everything you dreamed it would be…tc

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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10/04/2022 #TuesdayVibe #WhipSaw #LorettaLynn

Good Morning Denver Megaplex,

I hope you and yours are doing well and the events of the last week or so have not been harmful to you, your family, your associates or your friends. I follow #ReedTimmer, the storm chaser, and it is just chilling to see his onsite commentary of the events in SW Florida. This is Tuesday, however, and we will be raising everybody up!!

Let’s talk about our external environment for just a moment. #WallStreet has been #WhipSawed the last few months to the point where everyone has “eaten some crow”. 2, 3, 4% swings from day to day at this point is having an effect on the world around it. Builders, Lender, Investors and Savers have been harmed by this lack of market focus. I am starting to see a ground swell of focus in the next 30-60 days. #Election, #Fed and #Economy will drive this perspective forward making this #TuesdayVibe thrive…

Oh No, “The Coal Miner’s Daughter” no longer walks this earth with us after 90 strong and productive years. Our sincere condolences will hopefully ride along with her. RIP Loretta, You’ll always be our “Honky Tonk Girl”…

Jumping off into the last 7 days in Denver, the numbers look OK, but there are a few signs of brittleness in the market which we will discuss below.

New Listing (1271) A normal seasonal week here.
Coming Soon (123) This number is dropping off.
Back On Market (323) Speaking from our own transactions. Sellers are not learning to correct physical defects on their property fast enough.

Price Increase (86)
Price Decrease (1996) This represents one third of all listings moving forward with price improvements. It is very important to price ahead of the market.
Pending (1113) Another normal seasonal week. Demand is still with us, but it is more measured.
Withdrawn (290)
Leased (67)
Closed (1381) This is a great number anytime it is more than the # of New Listings, and it is this week.
Expired (596) This is a little brittle here. #SellerFatigue is real, and it is happening here.

So, the long story short here is simple. The Denver Market shows great signs of health, but there are a few rough edges predominantly stunted by interest rates. Once again, the #Election, the #Fed and #WallStreet will go a long way to helping us predict the future between now and the end of 2022. I’m going to be the optimist and say, “It will mostly be good”.

Now, let’s follow along with a spotlight on active listings. Supply is always a key indicator, and once again, the number of Active Listings is down over last week.

As you can see above, we it our peak of Active Listings for 2022 a few weeks ago, and
it has been down each week ever since.

One last thing today. One of our clients was curious about Days on Market or DOM this year. As you can see below, it is up, but still below the 4 of the last 6 years. 28 Days is actually pretty healthy and indicative of a “more normal market”. Homes should not sell in 24 hours!

DOM over the last 5-6 years.

As always, please lean in on our expertise. Ask questions, educate yourself, and get comfortable with the market before making a decision like #homeownership.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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