06/29/2021derful #DenverMarketWatch #TuesdayVibe

 “A ship in harbor is safe — but that is not what ships are built for.” — John A. Shedd

Is this a metaphor for #Homeownership? Let’s see. A participant in this residential market is completely safe staying put. The participant’s goal, however is to move. They want to move up, price or size down, move for employment or family or lifestyle, etc. So, unless the participant leaves the #safeharbor, their goal remains unrealized. Right now, the fear in our market has been magnified by all the things that can go wrong. The truth of the market is simple, and it’s always been this way, “Buyers want to buy, and Sellers want to sell”. As a broker participant in the marketplace, it’s our job to keep the problems at bay.

Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve been observing a change in trend. Let’s see here what this week has for us in the Denver MLS System over the last 7 days.

New Listing (1500) This is the trend we’ve been seeking. Over 1,500 in a single week; Brilliant!
Coming Soon (115) This number, however, is well below recent weeks! Does this trend have legs?
Back On Market (245)
Price Increase (290)
Price Decrease (565) Pay attention here… Sellers are coming out too strong with their list price, and this is a huge number adjusting to the real market!
Pending (1956) Once again, Buyers are finding their way. This is a huge number!
Withdrawn (161)
Leased (66)
Closed (1736) This is a very strong number. This market has not cooled one bit!
Expired (127)
MLS Reporting over the last 7 days.

So, I’ve been doing my research on this market week in and week out. We wrote about the demographic shift happening last week. Long story short, Boomers are aging in place longer than previous generations and Millenials are reaching their “Home Buying” age in greater numbers all at the same time. This coupled with the normal pressures of market participants and a shortage has resulted. What’s a broker to do? Don’t shoot the messenger, but this phenomenon could continue into 2030 according to some of the number crunchers. Now, interest rates and employment prospects always play a key role in the demand for homeownership, and only time will tell.

Has the Market Changed?

I talked about the potential for a more buyer friendly market as we roll into the second half of 2021, and now for the last 3 months, there is some indication the Single Family Detached Residential Market in the 11 counties included in the Greater Denver Metropolitan Area is providing some proof to this Hypothesis. It is important to look closely at the weekly numbers, but it is necessary to look at the broader picture over a wider time frame to see clearly. I hope this rings true to your thoughts.

I’d love to hear your comments. Please do not hesitate to call…tc

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06/22/2021derful #DenverMarketWatch #Demographics

We are constantly asked, when is this market going to let up and have mercy on at least a few buyers? That question is the segue into this weeks reference point. Demographics are playing a huge roll in all this demand and limited supply.

“If you’re hoping for a housing crash to buy at lower prices you could be waiting a long time. There is going to be a steady stream of 20 and 30-somethings looking to put down roots for the rest of this decade.”

Conversely, will there be any help on the other end with Boomers giving up their homes and adding to supply?

“My sense is there will be a pickup in Boomers selling their homes in the 2nd half of the 2020s and lasting until 2040 or so. These homes will be older – and most will need updating – but many of these homes will be in prime locations. We should also see a pickup in retirement community construction during that time period.”

So, there you have it. The long story short, Demand will outstrip Supply for at least 5 or 10 based on Demographics. If you would like to study some more on this here’s where it originated.

Demographics Are Destiny in the Housing Market

awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/06/demographics-are-destiny-in-the-housing-market/

Ben Carlson

In the meantime, what happened this week in Denver’s Residential Market.

New Listing (1356) This is a great mid-season number. We need more of them back to back!
Coming Soon (280) This is up a little bit too!
Back On Market (240)
Price Increase (197)
Price Decrease (505) WOW, what’s happening here?
Pending (1904) A very strong number over the last 7 days.
Withdrawn (146)
Leased (72)
Closed (1720) Another strong week at the closing table. Buyers are persistent!
Expired (139)
Denver’s MLS Supply and Demand Last 7 Days
Have We Seen The Bottom?

With all the demographic talk above, markets are still LOCAL, and our local data says, we may have seen the last of “No Inventory” moving to at least a market of “Coming Soon” maybe. Let’s keep an eye on this, and please tune in next week…tc

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06/15/2021derful #DenverMarketWatch #Wasabi

Over the last 7 days, our Denver MLS System has reported the following changes of Demand and Supply. With rates holding steady to lower in the last 7 days, demand remains strong.

New Listing (1336) This is a GREAT number and up over recent weeks!
Coming Soon (284) This number is hanging strong.
Back On Market (177) This is holding steady at about 10%.
Price Increase (274)
Price Decrease (432)
Pending (1992) It just seems like demand is limitless!!!
Withdrawn (135)
Leased (72)
Closed (1565) Certainly a strong week, but not record breaking. Buyers and Sellers are still getting it closed.
Expired (114)

Let’s put this in perspective with some macro data.

Last June we had around 6,800 Single Family Listings Active in the 11 county Denver Metropolitan Market. Today, we have 2,000! As you can see above on the previous graphic, inventory is now just barely keeping pace with demand with a ZERO buyer choice market.

As previously discussed this is causing “Buyer Fatigue” and I almost think more importantly, this market is bringing out “Seller Greed”. I still believe any seller allowing just a 15 minute window for showings is doing more damage than good. I’ve seen this market turn on a dime. Rates, Employment, Market Crash and Affordability can move a market almost overnight. The least a seller could do in a market like this is allow reasonable time slots for showings. I would suggest at least 30 minutes. We were showing an out of town couple a $2M+ homes recently with a 30 minute showing window; this is hardly time to get to the basement. Let’s stop and think about our actions. Thank You!

In closing today, who knew a Pekingese named #Wasabi would win overall at Westminster? I sure didn’t. Enjoy the rest of your week…tc

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06/08/2021derful #DenverMarketWatch #NationalBestFriendsDay #BuyerFatigue

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This week in Denver Residential Real Estate, we are starting to see some recognizable changes with the supply shortage. This supply shortage may have reached the bottom??? Now, I’m not saying supply is going to race away, but these unreasonable levels over the last few months have created a lot of #BuyerFatigue in Denver and across the country. How do the numbers look this week? Let’s start with something a little different today. There are 1,836 Active Single Family Residences currently available in the 11 county Denver Metro reporting area according to our MLS System. This number has not strayed far from the 2,000 line all year, but the last 3 out of 4 months it’s been at or below 2,000. No wonder buyers are lining up for a showing, but the leading indicators of Coming Soon and Back On Market are UP, week over week. Maybe this is a good sign for buyers finally, or at least something to hope for, and we all need something to hope for…

Now specific to the last 7 days, the market, we are potentially seeing a glacial shift.

New Listing (1292) Each week, this number is bumping up. Is this a sign?
Coming Soon (256) Pretty close to last week which was a little bit higher.
Back On Market (205) This is a leading indicator. If buyers walk away, what’s next?
Price Increase (281)
Price Decrease (372)
Pending (1941) A very strong number! NOT much #buyerfatigue here…
Withdrawn (127)
Leased (70)
Closed (1817) Once again, no #buyerfatigue here either.
Expired (205)

With all this to hang our hats on, the prospects of balanced market are well into the distance of time, but hope springs eternal for the buyers facing fatigue. Right?

As you know, we watch these numbers weekly, so keep checking in to see where we might be going next.

Anecdotally, Dee and I were able to put 2 of our buyers submitting contracts this weekend Under Contract! By strategically aligning them with current market conditions and property type, we were able to negotiate from a position of power. One fact is simple; being CREDIT APPROVED set them apart from the other buyers competing. Being credit approved makes a buyer look as good as a cash buyer. Take the next step. We’ll show you how…tc

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06/01/2021derful @MyTownCryer #DenverMarketWatch #June1st

Working smart is what we all want to do. WE constantly reach for a “better way”. Numbers are Numbers, however, and each week, they continue to tell me the same thing. I wish there were a better way.

Let’s take a look at Denver’s MLS for the last 7 days. With a total of about 2,600 active residential listings right now, this is not good news for buyers; once again.

New Listing (944) Whenever this number is below 1,000, it’s not enough!
Coming Soon (303) This number has jumped up by about 40%. Maybe it’s coming?
Back On Market (144)
Price Increase (212)
Price Decrease (234)
Pending (1527) Not as big as last week, but still a strong seasonal number. Buyers are not giving up.
Withdrawn (115)
Leased (77) With a few potential buyers looking for rentals in Denver, this side of the market does not have many choices…
Closed (1675) This is another strong seasonal number. Buyers and Sellers are getting to the closing table is grand style!
Expired (198)
Denver’s MLS Numbers Over the Last 7 Days
The only good news here is maybe supply is “turning the corner”?

Words of advice from veteran in this market. If you are a buyer get credit approved! This means your lender has run your entire “package” through underwriting. With that being done, you should now have a “lender letter” with NO “conditions”. The only thing the lender would need to close is Title Work on the property and an Appraisal on the property. One could argue, at this point, you are almost as good as a “cash buyer”.

By far, however, buyers able to “appear” like “cash buyers” have an upper hand. Sellers continue to be coached “Cash Is King”, ideally, can you appear as a cash buyer? Do you have a “Bank of Dad”, a funded retirement account or a password to a Crypto Cache? With competition as high as it is for every listing, a buyer has to persevere toward all options.

“And in the end”, as the Beatles sang, one doesn’t want to take a wrong turn. Do you want to give up your Inspection Objection on the “flipper house” where the the flipper has not pulled permits, inspected the waste line or replaced the “hail damaged” roof? Be prudent, be armed and be sensible. As I always say, “Houses are like buses, there will be another along in a few minutes”, and there will…tc

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05/25/2021derful @MyTownCryer #DenverMarketWatch

This morning, my ramblings will take us deep into this SELLERS’ MARKET. It’s the same story with a bit more visualization and comment. This week, I interviewed a Realtor in the Washington DC area, I interviewed an appraiser in the SF Bay area, and I was part of an interview with a Canadian relocation specialist. We discussed this market which seems to be universal across North America. The question I asked was, “What will cause this market of limited supply end?” Without exception all three mentioned Interest Rates, then Employment Trends changing direction, and finally, Affordability. They all said, markets are smart, and when affordability impacts a market, the market will change. The California Appraiser said, “Don’t California Out Yet!” So folks, hang onto your hats, the winds of time will be in this market for some time to come…

Here’s what it looks like this week in our MLS System…

New Listing (1125) We just can’t get enough of these, but this is improvement!
Coming Soon (145) Down from last week. Bad sign…
Back On Market (188) Very few transactions going south.
Price Increase (244) This number is up. Are brokers keeping up with the market?
Price Decrease (303) Even more so on this end?
Pending (1938) This is a big number…
Withdrawn (110)
Leased (81)
Closed (1598) Solid mid-season strength observed from this number.
Expired (119)
Denver’s MLS Over the Last 7 Days

As you can see below, we are suffering from a drought of Active Residential Listings. Take a minute and absorb this. In the 11 county Denver Metro Area, we currently are running with just over 2,600 active listings. Now, remember, Denver Metro has a population of about 3.25M. Now it’s easy to understand the shortage issue. I wish we could measure the demand side of this as easily, but keep in mind we had less than 5 times this number just one year ago.

From Denver MLS Data 11 Counties

Dee and I continue to have success in this market, despite how tough it is. In fact, we assisted with two buyers last weekend in competitive price ranges with multiple offers, and now, they are under contract. Facing this market head on with finesse and patience pays dividends! Sun Tzu…

Now, I would like to address an issue we are facing. We are showing numerous properties with 15 minute showing windows. We believe this to be a very harmful practice. Please, Extend the acceptance period, allow at least a 30 minute window, and expose the property to the market for a week rather than 2 or 3 days. We had our buyers in a $2M listing with a 15 minute showing window. This is just crazy. Even if one runs through the house, 15 minutes is just impractical.

In closing today, Realtors have always had “The Three P’s”. Put a sign up, Put it in MLS, and Pray.” That used to be the market for sellers. Today, buyers need their own mantras. How about “Perseverance, Patience and Prayer”? It’s time…tc

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05/18/2021derful @MyTownCryer #DenverMarketWatch

Good Tuesday Afternoon,

After about two weeks of rain, let me tell you, Denver is seldom this green. It is simply beautiful. On top of that, the Crabapple Trees were out in royal glory this season!!!

So, being as late as I am today, let’s get right to it. Compared to last week, this market continues to just get hotter and hotter.

New Listing (896) This number is down from last Tuesday. Not good!
Coming Soon (325) On the other hand, this number is way up. It will be a good weekend to buy a house in Denver…
Back On Market (188)
Price Increase (266)
Price Decrease (296)
Pending (2074) This is a huge number. Many listings are not making it to the MLS. Some “hanky panky” going on here.
Withdrawn (110)
Leased (71)
Closed (1664) Another strong seasonal week for closings.
Expired (150)
The Last 7 Days in Denver’s MLS System

Anecdotally, Dee and I have observed some interesting market gymnastics in the last week. We put an offer in for one of our buyers on a $550K listings at $600K. Reportedly, it went under contract at $650K. The demand is still ferocious. 9 Months ago, it probably would not have brought $550K. I still believe sellers in this market are putting unreasonable constraints on buyers. 15 Minute showing windows and 24 hour submission deadlines can only hurt the market long term. That’s my prediction for today.

Don’t hesitate to call. If you are in Denver, enjoy this rain!…tc

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05/11/2021derful @MyTownCryer #DenverMarketWatch #Homeownership

“Make a list.” You’ve heard or read this somewhere before today. Today, I’m going to provide you with a list of all the things making #Homeownership special for me.

  • Homeownership puts you in the “game”.
  • Homeownership grounds you in community.
  • Homeownership provides a foundation for future financial security.
  • Homeownership puts you along side 60-65% of households in America.
  • Homeownership still has federal tax benefits.
  • Homeownership allows you to “make it your own”. Plant a Snow Crab!
  • Homeownership provides your family a sense of place.
  • Homeownership creates tradition.
  • Homeownership gives you a place for your children to bring their children for a visit.
  • Homeownership in Romania exceeds 96% of households! When something is taken away, getting it back is a celebration!
  • I bet you have a few more, let’s hear from you!!!

Now is the time to take a look at the last 7 days of “the chase” for homeownership in the Denver Market.

New Listing (973) Not much change from last week. Listings are not keeping up with demand! Now is the time to sell.
Coming Soon (286) This is a good sign. This number is not big, but it is up from last week.
Back On Market (144) Still low from the view of markets past.
Price Increase (265)
Price Decrease (234)
Pending (1725) This is a strong seasonal number. Buyers are finding or “settling” for the inventory available.
Withdrawn (120)
Leased (82)
Closed (1511) A relatively strong number in spite of everything this market faces.
Expired (98) This doesn’t happen very often…
Denver MLS Data Over the Last 7 Days.
May 11, 2021derful Snow Fall

Do you know why this month is called May?  It MAY snow, It MAY rain, It MAY be 80 degrees, It MAY be 10 degrees!

Well, there is snow on the ground this morning! Our Snow Crab is taking the brunt of its weight due to its blooming branches of fragrant spring love. Although I love this Snow Crab, Denver’s weather does wreak havoc on its beauty during most spring seasons.

As you have probably guessed, this week’s theme on homeownership goes beyond any list you can make. It doesn’t take into consideration the prom pictures, the soccer trophies, the Child Art or the spiritual love held within one’s home. Homeownership can be put into words, but words can never express the feelings associated within.

In this market, so many buyers are denied the chance due to inventory and demand imbalance. Here’s what we know. All markets can swing from one extreme to another quickly. Patience may be a virtue here. Let’s talk about it…tc

Supply vs. Demand
Supply vs. Demand
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05/04/2021derful @MyTownCryer #DenverMarketWatch

Can you believe it? It is already May! And, that’s my point this week; “Time knows no bounds”… Covid, the economy, taxes, human conditions, politics, weather, daylight, night, drought, flood, markets and more can’t stop time. As we follow along this week, once again, Denver’s Residential Market continues to not look back! Buying a house in the Denver Market does not allow a buyer to look back. Looking back only casts doubt. Looking forward, however, allows a buyer to have the hope of future wealth.

Hurrah Pass, UT
We are not living in Geologic Time…

As Elliot Eisenberg put it this week, “So far this earnings season, 87% of firms have beat analysts profit expectations, well above the normally inflated 65%. Moreover, the earnings beats have averaged 22.8%, crushing the 3.6% average since 1994. Why? Large firms have taken market share from failed small ones, and GDP is just 0.9% below its pre-pandemic peak while employment is still down by 8.5 million workers, suggesting large efficiency gains are hitting the bottom line”. Time knows no bounds…

Below, you will see the last 7 days in the 11 counties surrounding the Denver Metro MLS Market results.

New Listing (902) This is an improvement over the average, but still too low!
Coming Soon (217)
Back On Market (140) This is still remarkably low… Buyers are committed!
Price Increase (233)
Price Decrease (246)
Pending (1745) This is shows the reality of competition in this market!
Withdrawn (98)
Leased (78)
Closed (1840) WOW, this is a big number despite the lack of inventory!!!
Expired (240)
With fewer than 1,200 Detached SFR properties available in the Metro Area,
Denver Buyers are straining for more inventory, but inventory is slow in coming!

I believe this market still has “legs” to grow prices as long as we have these low rates. A 30 year fixed rate $1,000,000 mortgage at 3% is still just a little over $4,200/Month. Seems like a big monthly number, but at $500,000, it is less expensive than rent in this market.

Moving forward, watch rates, job growth and available inventory. These will forecast the future of Denver’s Residential Market.

Please never forget, we are here for you. We’ve been to battle, we’ve won and have many happy buyers and sellers in this high demand market. We can share our success with you too. Time knows no bounds, and it’s not waiting for you! Safe travels…tc’21

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04/20/2021derful #DenverMarketWatch @420

Good Afternoon Everyone!

Today has nothing to do with Cannabis and everything to do with Cannabis. The legalization of Cannabis in 2014 sent Colorado down the path few states had traveled. It brought tax revenue, fear and joy all at once. Now 7 years later, it’s a story of “Figures don’t lie, but Liars figure”, to use a phrase from generations ago.

Photo by Michael Fischer on Pexels.com

The DEA will tell you it has increased gun related violence due to the “cash” nature of the business. Some city revenue observers will relish in the new source of revenue from taxation. No matter where you stand on this issue, the fact we have a serious cash business with no place to store its income is a serious problem. Who knew what #Bitcoin was for?

Anyway, let’s take a look at this week’s numbers. Once again, the last 7 days shows a drop in New Listings from last week’s report. At the same time, both Pending and Closed transactions are up!!! This can’t keep happening. The fight to get into a new listing on Friday evening or Saturday morning for just 15 minutes is having a psychologically negative impact on buyers. In this game, if you are not first, You Are Last! Let’s take a look…

New Listing (741) This is well of last week’s number over 900 new listings…
Coming Soon (227)
Back On Market (122)
Price Increase (293)
Price Decrease (241)
Pending (1927) This is a High Season number; the reason there is no inventory to be had.
Withdrawn (123)
Leased (80)
Closed (1466) This is a moderate seasonal number, but across all price ranges, we are just seeking about 10% come back on the market.
Expired (108)
MLS Data for the Last 7 Days 11 Counties Denver Metro

So, what’s the plan. Anecdotally, the plan right now is CASH. CASH is king. Or, can you find a way to to “look like cash”… AS a buyer, if you need a new loan, you have no way to look like an “A” Student to a seller, or do you? Starting out in the “B” Class is tough in this market! WE have had many successes in this environment. Let’s make you an “A” Student!

Let’s hop on line together and hash out a plan. It will not take long. We might even find a way for you to afford a home right here in Denver… TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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