11/08/2022 #BuyDowns #Arms #PowerBall and #TheElection

It’s happening right here, right now and right in front of us. There will be more to come on this, but as we continue down this road of higher interest rates, we will once again, #What’sOldIsNewAgain, see Buy Downs as a commonly employed tool in the homesale arena. Builders are offering buydowns on their standing inventory, sellers are offering credits for buydowns so that their buyers will pay full list price (?), and of course lenders are stumbling over each other handle this type of transaction.

Along with buydowns, ARMs have risen from the dead and are now in play again. Adjustable Rate Mortgages can affordably provide a buyer with a lower rate for the first 1, 2 or 3 years of the mortgage, nad theoretically, rates are lower going into year for and the borrower refinances to a lower rate. Our tool box is full of fun things. Come take a look…

OK, this is too strange. POWERBALL??? When the bet is $2 for a chance at a billion, I had to buy a ticket or two,,,, Turns out, there is some sort of security protocol slowing down the announcement of the numbers last night. Sure that I will win, this has caused me some disconsternation to no end as I’m sure it has you too!!!

Finally, other than the #Astros winning a World Series, let’s talk briefly about the election. What ever happens over the next few days, let’s remember, “The Sun will come. up…” and life will go on. Dee and I will continue to bring the joys of home ownership to our clients, and life will be good.

So, what happened in the last week in our Denver MLS? And, all I can say is Holy Mackerel!!! 

New Listing (997) By far one of the lowest number of Listings in quite a while…!!!
Coming Soon (91) And, this doesn’t help much.
Back On Market (242)
Price Increase (74)
Price Decrease (1556) Wowser, Wowser, Wowser! Does anyone really know?
Pending (943) Keeping up with New Listings, but not much else.
Withdrawn (264)
Leased (63)
Closed (918) Buyers and Sellers still managing to get to the closing table!
Expired (567)

Anecdotally, we found a FSBO listing and closed last week. FSBOs are always so interesting.  But, add one more to that list above, so it’s really 919 at least.

Finally, The next two Charts will show you the number of Active Listings on the market and the direction of Average Price. Nothing but fun here today!

And now for Average Prices…

Now, I’d like to write and write and write like the national guys/gals do about the market is heading for catastrophe. The 1980s in Denver was a catastrophe. Brokers would take their signs down, because there would be too many on one street. Builders would walk away from entire developments due to the lack of sales activity. And, then there was 2008 when speculative borrowers and unassuming homeowners would just walk away from their property do to lack of rent or equity and a job offer in another city, and I could go on. This just doesn’t look like a market trending toward the edge of a cliff.

I could be wrong, and we are ready to discuss your goals and fears. Give us a call… TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com 303-773-3399 at your convenience…tc

Tom Cryer, SCRP
Broker Associate
THE CRYER TEAM
Kentwood Real Estate
4949 S. Niagara St. #400
Denver, CO 80237
303-638-3202
Tom@Kentwood.com

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11/01/2022 #Rates #Inflation #Election #Pots&Pans #Elon

Good Morning Everyone!

I was navigating the Arizona Strip last week. We had three days of absolutely no cell service. To the north of us one night at camp, one of the other camp parties had Elon’s new #Starlink satellite communications dish, and one of the campers was actually “facetiming” with his son before bedtime. I don’t care if you love him, or hate him, #ElonMusk delivers on innovation after innovation. Sleeping on his office floor is really paying off.

I was at Sam’s Club over the weekend, and the #Pots&Pans salesman was standing there alone, so I struck up a conversation. He was very clear and concise, “People are not ‘pulling the trigger’ like they were earlier in the year”. If that is not grassroots analysis, I don’t know what is.

Rates continue to inhibit residential sales activity. Our buyer clients from earlier in the year are thankful for the rate they have locked in, but frightened as to what may happen to values.

I was at a little Halloween Party last night with a largely Millennial population, and they are experiencing inflation for the first time in their lives. “Can you believe how much eggs have gone up?” On a side note, I paid $6.50 for premium in AZ last week! Anyway, it will be interesting to follow these new generations and their reaction to economic events unfaced before.

Finally, I can’t remember any election in my adult lifetime when a dramatic TV ad didn’t come on demonstrating the importance of an election. “This election is more important to our future than any election ever in the history of mankind.” Well, we will all wake up on 9th, the business channel will still be on, cartoons will still be playing and around 11 or 12 the mail will arrive. Life goes on. I visited the Mount Trumbull Schoolhouse last week. A one room schoolhouse 70 miles down a dirt road attended in 1900. I imagine the kids attending there a hundred years ago managed their way through life. We will too. My point? Elections are important. It is a good thing to be a well informed voter. It’s a good think to vote. Protecting the rights of homeownership is very important, and creating better pathways to homeownership can only strengthen our neighborhoods, our cities, our states and our country.

Let’s take a look at the last 7 days in Denver’s Residential Market. If this isn’t remensient of the malaise in the market almost always around an “important election” I don’t know what is…

New Listing (970) Nothing to buy, anywhere!
Coming Soon (111) Not much happening here either.
Back On Market (264)
Price Increase (80)
Price Decrease (1564)
Pending (959) Still keeping up with new active listings!
Withdrawn (256) Sellers giving up, why?
Leased (69)
Closed (1086) A strong week in spite of the surrounding events of the day.
Expired (593) This is a big number. These sellers gave up! Why?

Next, how does all this appear in historic perspective? This is what our next chart shows us.

Clearly, the expansion of inventory for the time being has subsided. Above, we can postulate on all the reasons the market is doing what it is doing, but long story short, we have reached a level of “balance”; maybe seasonal, maybe consternation, maybe procrastination, who knows. We will get through this, and homeownership will prevail.

The buy sell process within homeownership is complicated. We are here to help you. Give us a call. We take a unique approach. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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10/18/2022 #WildHorses #BlackSwan #TheDollar

Good Morning Interested People!

The fall season has clearly arrived. A few weeks ago, Dee and I took the day to visit the last of the Aspen colors for 2022. As you can see see in the background, the white stuff is finding its way onto our high peaks.

FAll 2022 Boreas Pass

We find ourselves in the second or third week in a row of growing Single Family Inventory after it had flattened. This trend has been around 100 per week, so this is not very concerning, and I believe the #BlackSwan of #InterestRates is being absorbed and understood to date. Long term if they continue their upward trends, it will grind this market to a halt. Let’s keep a close eye on this one.

The wild horses of early this year and several years past are slowing their gate. Offers with no contingencies are all but lost in this market. Buyers have become extremely cautious! Sellers are even considering Contingent on Sale Offers, but this is not a big trend yet. Seller concessions are impacting almost every transaction. Time will tell a new story.

Last but not least is the Dollar. Around the world against other currencies, the Dollar is so strong, it is impacting US exports. As an example, when I was in Canada this summer, the Canadian Dollar was about .80c to the US Dollar. Today it is .72c. This makes global trade more complicated for US business around the world. Believe it or not, this is impactful to the US residential market. It is even having a positive impact on lowering construction materials coming from Canada in the form of wood products and energy.

The weekly numbers below are not threatening, and given the circumstances can be construed as positive.

New Listing (1220). This is pretty much like the last few weeks with no big rush to sell here.
Coming Soon (118)
Back On Market (243) No big concern here. This number is actually down a little bit.
Price Increase (124)
Price Decrease (1895). This continues to be the story in this market. Sellers are being to optimistic with their starting list prices. This is requiring 1, 2, and 3 reductions before sale.
Pending (1013). A pretty good week. Between cash buyers and well qualified borrowers, the market continues to be the market.
Withdrawn (261)
Leased (91)
Closed (1074). A pretty good week. Not record breaking, but it is pretty good.
Expired (272)

The big image below is clearly painting a picture of No Big News Here, Yet.

Let’s all take a great big breath. We’ve had statistical run of almost 10 years of positive market trends. It’s time for a breather. Residential Real Estate is a long term investment also providing shelter and security. Let’s not forget this.

As always, Dee and I would be happy to take your calls, answer your questions and help with the creation of a Buyer’s Plan or Seller’s Plan. Please give us an hour and we’ll provide a valuable path to follow. In the meantime enjoy life…

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

#TestimonialTuesday

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10/11/2022 #Who’sAffraid #YouGottaBe #TerrificTuesday

Warren Buffet is often credited with the quote, “When people are greedy, be fearful, but when people are fearful, be greedy”, and I suppose this advice would serve us well right now. There is a lot of fear on the street right now. Investors fear the market, Buyers fear the rates, Voters fear the “other party”, Russia fears Ukraine, North Korea fears South, some people fear everything and others fear nothing. Where do you stand. Do you believe #HomeOwnership is something to be feared? If you have studied the market and believe in homeownership, there should be no fear.

Des’ree performed a very popular “one hit wonder” called “You Gotta Be”. One of the verses goes like this.

Time asks no questions, it goes on without you
Leaving you behind if you can't stand the pace
The world keeps on spinning
Can't stop it if you tried to
The best part is danger staring you in the face, oh
Terrific Tuesday

I guess my point today is over simplified with so much turmoil surrounding us all. When one has a home to return to after a day of the “hustle and bustle”, it is a feeling of secure comfort. So go ahead, enjoy a Terrific Tuesday…

The “brittle edges” I wrote about last week are becoming more apparent. New Listings are greater than Pending UC Listings and Closed Listings. This is pushing the market toward a balance, but as the fed pushes rates, they may impact supply and demand ratios. We will be watching this very closely. Additionally, Price Adjustments are becoming a common thing as the market is failing to adjust on the front end of the listing and causing extending marketing times too.

Here’s what the numbers look like over the last 7 days…

New Listing (1220)
Coming Soon (132)
Back On Market (360)
Price Increase (163)
Price Decrease (1967)
Pending (1024)
Withdrawn (284)
Leased (57)
Closed (949)
Expired (268)

As you can see below, the total number of Active Listings has flatlined. We are keeping a very close eye on this. If total supply starts to outstrip demand, this will become a market with cause for fear?

The last 3 months have ended with 7,300 Listing in July, 6,914 Listings in August and not 6,979 at the end of September. We will keep a close eye on how October closes out.

Active Single Family Listings in Metro Denver over the last 10 years.

We are going through a dramatic period of uncertainty right now. Dee and I will be here for you. Answering questions, providing expertise, helping you make plans, finding resources, and making sure your home is everything you dreamed it would be…tc

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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10/04/2022 #TuesdayVibe #WhipSaw #LorettaLynn

Good Morning Denver Megaplex,

I hope you and yours are doing well and the events of the last week or so have not been harmful to you, your family, your associates or your friends. I follow #ReedTimmer, the storm chaser, and it is just chilling to see his onsite commentary of the events in SW Florida. This is Tuesday, however, and we will be raising everybody up!!

Let’s talk about our external environment for just a moment. #WallStreet has been #WhipSawed the last few months to the point where everyone has “eaten some crow”. 2, 3, 4% swings from day to day at this point is having an effect on the world around it. Builders, Lender, Investors and Savers have been harmed by this lack of market focus. I am starting to see a ground swell of focus in the next 30-60 days. #Election, #Fed and #Economy will drive this perspective forward making this #TuesdayVibe thrive…

Oh No, “The Coal Miner’s Daughter” no longer walks this earth with us after 90 strong and productive years. Our sincere condolences will hopefully ride along with her. RIP Loretta, You’ll always be our “Honky Tonk Girl”…

Jumping off into the last 7 days in Denver, the numbers look OK, but there are a few signs of brittleness in the market which we will discuss below.

New Listing (1271) A normal seasonal week here.
Coming Soon (123) This number is dropping off.
Back On Market (323) Speaking from our own transactions. Sellers are not learning to correct physical defects on their property fast enough.

Price Increase (86)
Price Decrease (1996) This represents one third of all listings moving forward with price improvements. It is very important to price ahead of the market.
Pending (1113) Another normal seasonal week. Demand is still with us, but it is more measured.
Withdrawn (290)
Leased (67)
Closed (1381) This is a great number anytime it is more than the # of New Listings, and it is this week.
Expired (596) This is a little brittle here. #SellerFatigue is real, and it is happening here.

So, the long story short here is simple. The Denver Market shows great signs of health, but there are a few rough edges predominantly stunted by interest rates. Once again, the #Election, the #Fed and #WallStreet will go a long way to helping us predict the future between now and the end of 2022. I’m going to be the optimist and say, “It will mostly be good”.

Now, let’s follow along with a spotlight on active listings. Supply is always a key indicator, and once again, the number of Active Listings is down over last week.

As you can see above, we it our peak of Active Listings for 2022 a few weeks ago, and
it has been down each week ever since.

One last thing today. One of our clients was curious about Days on Market or DOM this year. As you can see below, it is up, but still below the 4 of the last 6 years. 28 Days is actually pretty healthy and indicative of a “more normal market”. Homes should not sell in 24 hours!

DOM over the last 5-6 years.

As always, please lean in on our expertise. Ask questions, educate yourself, and get comfortable with the market before making a decision like #homeownership.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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09/27/2022 #IMHO #ElectionYear #It’sOK #SellerFatigue

This gallery contains 2 photos.

In My Humble Opinion, the world will not come to an end anytime soon. No, I’m not a scientist, politician or soothsayer, but I have been on earth a long time. Here’s what I have learned. In 1970, I attended … Continue reading

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09/20/2022 #BlackSwans #Rate#Light-Rail #News #Trust #QueenElizabeth #WallStreet

Last year I wrote liberally about #BlackSwans. Some of those Swans have come home to roost. Rates, war, Covid, supply chain, shortages, and more, but clearly right now in Denver, rates are the most impactful for our market. As of yesterday, we are up approximately 3% just this year.

Apparently, rents in Denver are higher near #Light-Rail. There is also some indication residential real estate values are higher within a 7 minute walk of a #Light-Rail Station.

The #News can’t wait to take a quote from #Redfin, #Zillow, #Compass or at least half a dozen other publicly traded real estate companies. These companies are often quoted in news shorties. The sad reality of the source is often times, these companies are unprofitable or rarely have a profitable quarter. So, do you #Trust these sources for real estate news or should you #Trust the valuable insights of the “boots on the ground” from your Realtor living, working and playing in your world? #RealEstateIsLocal

And of course, I’m remiss in not starting with memory of #QueenElizabeth. It will be interesting to see if the #NewKing can keep the lid on everything as well as the Queen.

#WallStreet becomes more closely linked everyday with its link to residential real estate. Wall Street funds own hundreds of thousands of single family home in America. Effectively forcing first time buyers in many markets to be “renters for life”. This investment strategy is not #Homeownership friendly, and we all know, #Homeownership is the most valuable and most stabilizing force in any community. Heaven forbid #WallStreet helping first time buyers rather than inhibiting them.

Now let’s see what happened in Denver Single Family Residential Market over the last 7 days…

New Listing (1362) A typical seasonal number, not too many, not too few…
Coming Soon (144)
Back On Market (310)
Price Increase (112)
Price Decrease (1933) This number continues to reflect Broker/Seller living in an alternative universe when it comes to pricing.
Pending (1311) Almost matching the number of new listings is always an indication of strength in the marketplace.
Withdrawn (257)
Leased (62)
Closed (1189) I’m happy to see the number of closings this week. In spite of skyrocketing interest rates, almost 1,200 Buyers and Sellers made it to the closing table.
Expired (233)

Once again, the long story short, the strength in Denver’s market is still very apparent with very few signs of weakness. But, let’s be clear, Interest Rates are up again over the last week. There is a huge weight on Jerome Powell’s back right now. Will the FED make the correct decision? We will know sooner rather than later as we approach the end of September.

Now, let’s take a look at available Active Listings.

We’ve “rounded” the top of the Active Listing Growth. What’s next?

Hello Again, here’s a quick look at the numbers. We finished May with 4,261 Active Listings (AL), we finished June with 6,276 ALs, we finished July with 7,192, we finished August with 6,610 and currently in September we stand with 6,155. These are not wild “oversupply” numbers indicative of a price crash in the Denver Single Family Market. These numbers come from 11 counties surrounding and including Denver of almost 1.5M residential properties. THE SKY IS NOT FALLING…

Today we can celebrate, it’s a good life and in spite of what goes on around us, we are in pretty good shape. This does not mean, translating this market into definable notions is easy, but with our help along the way, we can make the ride more comfortable.

Let us lead you toward opportunities; Dee and Tom Cryer MyTownCryer@Kentwood.com

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09/13/2022 #AlrightAlrightAlright #Passages #Family #Home

It’s been a crazy week to say the least. WE have never seen a “Midterm Election” where so much money has been or will be spent. Everyone has an idea or not, but the belief is simple, “Mine is better”… Really? Will you own up to it when it’s not, Calamity? Jane?

Anyway, I digress. Today, let’s look at the last 7 days, and then we will review the big picture.

New Listing (1509) This is a very high volume week from what we’ve been seeing.
Coming Soon (159)
Back On Market (285)
Price Increase (134)
Price Decrease (1817) This is the highest I’ve seen this number this year.
Pending (1260) A solid week, but clearly less than the new inventory it’s chasing.
Withdrawn (225)
Leased (58)
Closed (1208) Another solid week of closings even with a three day weekend on one end.
Expired (223)

How about the bigger picture?

We ended July with 7,152 and opened September with 6,455 Active Listings.

One of the nice things about being a Residential Market Observer is its simplicity. It moves slowly, its influencing variables are readily visible and we have so many sources of information to disaffirm or affirm our anecdotal presence. Make sense? Long story short, the sky is not falling. Here’s what’s happening now. Due primarily to interest rates and their rapid increase, buyers are taking a breather, sellers have not understood the importance of appropriate pricing, presentation and location on value, and pundits generally are not “boots on the ground” in the marketplace, and as a result, the nuances we see on the street are often overlooked.

Please, never let an exterior opinion on market conditions cloud your judgement as to what you are experiencing on “Main Street”. Remember, “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure”. That’s a little pragmatic, but when someone in New York is making predictions about your market in Centennial, it may not be completely accurate. Residential Real Estate is LOCAL. You need LOCAL assistance. Walk the Block to understand your market. Lean in on LOCAL professionals.

And remember, we are here for you every step of the way.

Dee and Tom Cryer TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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09/06/2022 #Homeownership #NationalReadABookDay #BeingThere

If you want a quick read for your National Read a Book Day, Being There would be my choice. It’s only 165 pages, it created a very comedic film of the same name. It plays well into a more humorous political scene but very poignant. So, Being There!

The growth in Total Number of Active Listings has turned…

Let’s also take a look at this week’s numbers.

New Listing (1033) With a 3 day weekend signalling the “end of summer”, this number is low and very telling.
Coming Soon (232) No Different than last week’s number.
Back On Market (244)
Price Increase (87)
Price Decrease (1349) A big number, but not as big as last week’s number.
Pending (1167) Better than the number of new listings. First time in more than a month.
Withdrawn (228)
Leased (45)
Closed (1289) End of the month numbers here. “Let’s get this closed so we have the long weekend to move in/move out!
Expired (509) This is telling us, 509 Sellers just gave up. DO YOUR HOMEWORK BEFORE HITTING THE MARKET!

With the number of ACTIVE LISTINGS down from last week by almost 800 from last week, we are seeing the typical End of Summer, Back to School and Vacation Week playing its typical roll in the marketplace. Once again, it’s telling me #TheSkyIsNotFalling!

Hardly a day goes by when at least one person doesn’t ask, “Tom, what’s the market doing?” My answer is almost always the same. Our market is doing quite well. If 2022 hadn’t happened the way it did, we would all be talking about how good the market is, and what a great time it is to move up in Denver.

Long story short, we have to get past an election. Someone or something needs to figure out how to unite the W2 worker vs. the 1099 worker, the #HomeOwner vs. the tennant, the Democrat vs. the Republican, the wealthy vs. the poor, the Suburbs vs. the City and those vs. Rural America, and all the other wrifts we have in the great country. I don’t know who or what it will be, but it will happen…

In the meantime, First Time Buyers and Last Time Sellers both tell me, owning a home has been a great improvement their lives. Step into the market, the waters are calm. We’ll be there for you every step of the way…tc

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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08/30/2022 #Elections #HomeOwnership #Unafiliated #Voter #Republican #Democrat

I wanted to add some comments this morning about the upcoming election in Colorado. Did you know as of 08/01/2022 according to the Colorado Secretary of State, there are 3,691,401 active registered voters in Colorado? Did you know of those 3.7M voters, 1.65M of those are Unaffiliated Voters; 931K of those voters are Republican and about 1M of those registered are Democrat. This tells me, almost half of all registered active voters in Colorado prefer not to be branded by a Party… Interesting, isn’t it?

At the same time, voter participation in Colorado continues to be as high as ever. The shift toward the Unaffiliated Voter is more about Party Alignment but not voting. Basically, 1.65 registered voters find freedom being a voter from the outside in rather than the inside out. As an example, as an unaffiliated voter, I can vote in either primary, but not both. Interesting times in which we live?

One thing is for sure, November will come and go. Some number of us will be happy with the election results on the day after and some number will be unhappy. But, the sun will come up in the morning…

Over the last 7 days in the Denver MLS, the stats are not offering anything truly new to the story. Please follow along…

New Listing (1252) This is not indicative of a market where sellers want to get out and run. It is typical seasonal weekly number.
Coming Soon (95)
Back On Market (291) Deals falling is typical, but this is starting to be on the high side. Is it rates, inspections or fear?
Price Increase (90)
Price Decrease (1604) This is a very telling number. Of the 6-7,000 active listings in our market area, about 25% required a Price Decrease to move toward a written offer.
Pending (1388) This is actually quite a strong weekly number. Maybe since the Listing the buyer wanted was priced appropriately, making an offer became more acceptable?
Withdrawn (211)
Leased (68)
Closed (1128) Not a great week, but clearly an acceptable week.
Expired (226)

However we measure the weekly activity, it still shows great strength with a lot of buyer/seller cooperation going on. From a Broker’s point of view, this is shaping up to be a very fair and more normal market. If you are a buyer who has been waiting on the sideline, maybe now will be a great opportunity for you to find the right property. Let us show you how.

As we close out August, we have 7,010 Active Residential Listings.

The Last 10 Years

What are some of the factors causing the market to build inventory? Interest Rates, Affordability, Fear, Election Anxiety, Economic Fortunes, War, Supply Chain, Inflation, Stagflation, and more. What has impacted your decision to buy or sell in this market?

Homeownership is one of these most important factors to our country’s fabric. Homeownership improves communities, increases participation, improves schools, neighborhood safety is clearly better than areas of low ownership rates and more. Take advantage of Homeownership. It helps everyone!

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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