07/05/2022 #OffGrid #RoadTrip #OhCanada #Overland

For the last 2 weeks, was traveling through Canada via Land Rover in my 2013 LR4, to be exact. We drove to the Arctic Circle! If you don’t like #RoadTriping or as this generation calls it; #Overlanding, #fugetaboutit. It is long, warm, dusty has perpetual daylight and is simply awesome!

As I drove along, the time available to reflect was abundant. I will be dribbling some of my thoughts in the weeks to come, but what’s happened here since I went #OffGrid?

Here’s what happened in the last 7 Days in the Denver Metro Residential Market.

New Listing (1125) Not breaking any records here…
Coming Soon (246) Nor here…
Back On Market (218)
Price Increase (97)
Price Decrease (1099) Now, this is telling. About half of all listings with a price decrease, Withdrawn or expired.
Pending (1188) Not a bad week!
Withdrawn (141)
Leased (73)
Closed (1388) Not a bad week!
Expired (325) Gave up and let it go… This is telling.
With 5,421 Active Listings right now, It is telling when we add up the number of Withdrawn and expired and price decreased listings. There is clearly an Autumn Breeze in the air!

There’s no question, we are drifting toward a more normal market, and who knows, maybe a buyer’s market by next year…

Let’s pay close attention in the coming weeks. We will be here for you every step of the way…tc

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06/21/2022 #Summer2022 #DenverMarketWatch

Like my father told me, “Be brief and be seated”. Well, that’s what I’m going to do today. Follow along…

This chart represents the last 7 days in Denver’s MLS System for the 11 Counties making up the Denver Metropolitan Area.

New Listing (1680) Nice strong seasonal number. No indication of a “Bust” here.
Coming Soon (296) Seems this number keeps creeping up every week.
Back On Market (328) This along with coming soon is a huge change for buyers seeking inventory.
Price Increase (154)
Price Decrease (1444)
Pending (1456) This is a little lower than expected here.
Withdrawn (201)
Leased (68)
Closed (1371) This is not up to seasonal standards here. Are rates finally hitting back?
Expired (159)

The Summer Malaise to which I referenced last week is in full swing. What do you mean Tom? Well, we increased in inventory since the year started from 1,687 active listings to 3,877. But, last week, 1,444 of those active listings had a price decrease, and one of them was ours…

Here’s the whole picture.

As you can see from the chart above, we are following along years past with a seasonal swing in our residential inventory. Still it is nothing like our more “normal” markets, certainly above what we had during the “shortage” earlier this year.

I promised to be brief. If you have any questions at all, you know how to reach us…tc

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06/14/2022 #FlagDay #PoolParties #Hotdogs #Beer #Baseball #HeatWave #LifeGuards

That’s right, summer is here!!! This is the time when a Buyer’s Eye is distracted by all that’s summer. This is the time when the weather is hot (Who wants to get in the car and look at houses?). This is the time when #SummerMalaise sets in and sellers get a little nervous.

If you think Denver’s Residential Market has drifted away from a Sellers’ Market; read on. Priced appropriately, prepped for the market place, and presented to the market so as to create a sense of urgency, new listings are still going under contract after the first weekend. Please, follow along…

New Listing (1764) Just like last week, we received more New Listings than Pendings. Down below, you’ll also see and increase in Active Listing inventory.
Coming Soon (321) This is a strong number getting ready!
Back On Market (314) Wow, over 300 failed attempts. Sellers need to fix those inspection items in this new market.
Price Increase (163)
Price Decrease (1295) Pricing off of comps with 3.5% interest rates is too aggressive for this market.
Pending (1617) This is a very strong midseason number. It is still a sellers’ market.
Withdrawn (187)
Leased (50)
Closed (1338) This seems to be off a little bit. I would have expected something near 1,500 here.
Expired (121) Sellers giving up?
Denver’s MLS activity over the last 7 days.

As you can see above, Denver’s Sellers’ market is maturing. Buyers are getting a second look at listings, sellers do not always have multiple offers to choose from. “The times they are a changin’…”

Below, let’s look at the total inventory numbers of Active Listings in the 11 counties surrounding and including Denver.

This chart is very telling. Follow along.

This chart tells us of the total active listing inventory over the last 10 years. Take note, at the end of May, 2022 we had 3,719 Active Listings, but at the end of May, 2020 we had 2,851; quite a jump, but still nothing even remotely close to May, 2020 with 7,504 Active Listings. What I’m trying to present here is nothing short of insight. Granted, we have more listings active, but only marginally more and nothing close to two years ago.

LSS, This is a time to reflect on your neighborhood choices if you are a buyer. If you are a seller; Condition, Appeal and Pricing will be critical. As we move forward, none of us know how the market will react to increasing interest rates. The rule of thumb has always been for every point rates go up, 10% of buyers in the market drop off. Are we close to seeing 30% of buyers drop out? Time will tell, time will tell.

We had a listing come on the market this last weekend with two written offers over List Price and north of 20 showings. We had another listing attract only one showing on Saturday and only one showing on Sunday. WE will watch this Bifurcation mature in our market in the weeks to come and report back to you…

Please keep in touch, and will too…tc

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06/07/2022 #HistoryRepeatsItself #HomeOwnershipMatters

I wrote this on 11/19/2008:

Here are some bullets about our housing market that should dispel some of the myth in the media, the fear of the market, and the speed at which this market could turn around:
· 76,000,000 Homeowners in the USA
· 24,000,000 Of those homes are owned free & clear
· 52,000,000 Have mortgages in place
· 97.2% Are not in foreclosure
· 93.8% Are current
· 20% Owe more than the value of their home
· 40% Of the foreclosures are not owner occupied
· $11.7 Trillion of American’s wealth is in Money Markets, CDs or Treasury Bills
Sounds like a lot of us are hard working, saving, responsible Americans.
What about the GREAT DEPRESSION vs. 2008?
· In 1930 1000 banks failed
· In 2008 14 banks failed
Here are some facts about the residential market in the US of A:
· In the 1970s we averaged 3,000,000 residential transactions per year with a high of 3,900,000
· In the 1980s we averaged 3,300,000 residential transactions per year with a high of 4,000,000
· In the 1990s we averaged 3,900,000 residential transactions per year with a high of 4,900,000
· In the 2000s we averaged 5,600,000 residential transactions per year with a high of 7,200,000
I would argue values in our market were artificially inflated by extremely liberal financing terms. What are your thoughts?
Information obtained from sources believed to be reliable,
but no guarantees are inferred by its publication.

Remember, the media needs headlines. To get those headlines, it will create catastrophe, disfunction and inequity in order to get ratings. Back then it was to sell papers, but today it’s about getting “page views”. Consider your source…

This blog enjoys 14 years of my opinion, observation and experience. So, where are we today?

New Listing (1743). This is HUGE! Over the last 7 days, we’ve had more New Listings than new Pending! This is an obvious change in the market’s direction.
Coming Soon (343). Once again, this is the highest number I’ve seen this year.
Back On Market (286)
Price Increase (118)
Price Decrease (1056). Wow, are sellers getting anxious?…???
Pending (1595). A nice big seasonal number the market loves to see! Sellers are still getting their due.
Withdrawn (175)
Leased (66)
Closed (1852). Once again, this is a nice big seasonal number reflecting a market with strong demand, It’s a good life.
Expired (254)
Based on the above data, over the last 7 days in Metro Denver, we have made the first step toward a Balanced Market.

Now, let’s look at the numbers on Inventory:

By The Numbers 06/07/2022

One year ago, we had 2,851 Active Listings in the Metro Denver Area. This was clearly a shortage. At the the same time this year we had 3,526 Active Listings and climbing. Prior to Covid in 2018 and clearly a more normal market we had 5,594 Active Listings. Everyone felt 2018’s market was well defined with strong demand and happy. I would argue, the “ship is not sinking”. Denver will weather this change which has been induced by a pond full of “#BlackSwans” and not a structural problem in Denver Demographics. Denver looks good from a “Big Picture View”.

You have a choice. You can choose a brokerage team that is well seasoned, experienced and been in the battle of this market many times, or…tc


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05/31/2022 #TestimonialTuesday #Case-Shiller #Inflation #Fuggedaboutit

Let’s get right into it. One of the most forward thinking pieces of data in Residential Real Estate is the rate at which Active Listings are go Pending. Please, listen to this; if you’re a buyer in the Denver Residential Market, and you are waiting for the big “Correction”, “fuggedaboutit”…!!! Follow along please…

New Listing (1140). Over the last 7 days in Denver, this many New Active Listings
Coming Soon (391). Well, here’s some good news for buyers!
Back On Market (202)
Price Increase (129)
Price Decrease (665)
Pending (1366). Over the last 7 days in Denver, this many Actives went Pending!
Withdrawn (148)
Leased (65)
Closed (1441). Voila’, It’s magic I tell you, MAGIC!!!
Expired (140)

The next chart is going to reflect the number of Active Listings vs. the number of recent Pendings on a monthly basis for the last 10 years. This market is healthy!

Notice the consistency of the Green (Pending) Line vs. the Blue (Active Listing) line. Once again, if you are waiting for capitulation in the Denver Residential Housing Market, it’s not coming anytime soon. When the Green Line is greater than the Blue Line, we are placing more Listings to Pending than we are putting new signs in the ground for Active. This is the classic view of strong Demand and tight Supply.

OK, this next chart is simply Active Listings in Total over a 10 year View.

Keep in mind, both of these charts are the 11 Counties making up the greater Metro Area.

Once again, Long Story Short; we will move toward a more balanced market. We are not there yet. My prediction is over the next 6-12 months, much of the “Multiple Offer” scenarios will wane into the background and buyers will actually get to show a property 1, 2 or even 3 times before having to right a contract. Sellers will have to make their homes “Parade Ready”. No more unkept lawns, interiors and/or serious defects. Buyers will have a Trump Card finally.

This will be a slow moving train, but it will be forceful and observable.

For more commentary like this, please follow along and subscribe. I hope to see you next Tuesday….tc

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05/24/2022 #WallsOfWorry #HomeOwnershipMatters

That’s right. Right now, we are beginning to live behind Walls of Worry. You name it, and IT is picking away at our Residential Market. Energy Costs, Interest Rates, China, Taiwan, Ukraine, on and on… George Washington was quoted, Worry is interest paid by those who borrow trouble. Fear not, the water is warm, come on it. Homeownership is all that and more!

Let’s take a look at this Chart.

New Listing (1533) This is a very healthy number for Buyers. Inventory is coming your way.
Coming Soon (211) Nothing dramatic here.
Back On Market (242)
Price Increase (140)
Price Decrease (795)
Pending (1745) This is another big week for sellers. Get it on the market, and it will go to contract!
Withdrawn (166)
Leased (38)
Closed (1574) For a market like Denver, this is a great weekly number. Buyers and Sellers are still rushing to Closing!
Expired (151)
Denver MLS for the Last 7 Days.

Let’s take a look at available inventory trends with this next chart.

Time frame is from Jan 2012 to Apr 2022
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

Let’s be honest here, BUYERS are getting prepared for greater fairness in Denver’s Residential Market! The pendulum swings, but make no mistake, in Demand Neighborhoods will still treat buyers poorly for some time to come. Nuances in markets come and go, but we are still here to answer your questions, handle your concerns, and walk with you, step by step, every step of the way…tc

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05/10/2022 #CampFire #America #Utah #Overlanding #CarCamping

I am currently on the trail of the #UtahTraverse. Or as we’ve been told, the #DirtyTraverse! Let me tell you, if you want to see it, be part of it and live it, look no further than Utah!

I will not be doing a market report this week.

When partaking in #vehicleassistedtravel, it makes one realize how complicated we make things. I’ll just leave you with an image or two or….

Next week…tc

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05/03/2022 #ElliotEisenberg #BlackSwans

With the help of Elliot Eisenberg this week, I will “be brief and be seated”. #CommodityInflation which includes #Energy #Food and #Metals and #DomesticLabor scarcity is making everything from my cheese burger to my driveway more expensive. #ChinaLockDowns are going make “supply chain” a dinner conversations for years ahead. #Russia and #Ukraine continues to be a “war like none other” as they say on the news almost everyday. (I think all wars are like none other.) All in, the pond is full of #BlackSwans with all this happening in less than a year.

What affect has this had on Denver’s Residential Real Estate Market?

New Listing (1314). This is a huge jump in the weekly add of New Listings!!!
Coming Soon (329) A Very Strong Number Here!!!
Back On Market (182)
Price Increase (219)
Price Decrease (526)
Pending (1798). A mid-season number and a refection of strong demand!!!
Withdrawn (98)
Leased (51)
Closed (1715). We are hitting on all 8 cylinders here!!!
Expired (147)
Denver Market Watch Over the Last 7 Days as Provided by REColorado.com

As you can see above, we now have ample supply coming into the market, we have continual demand swallowing it up for the time being, BUT Price Decrease and Back on the Market Listings are both #BlackSwans hiding and waiting for where we may be heading.

This chart below says we left April behind with 2,839 Active Listings with May growing, but in perspective, we need what’s happening with supply now…, but for how long?

Time frame is from Jan 2012 to Apr 2022
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’
Originating System Name is one of ‘REcolorado’

OK, Here are the numbers: January 1,638 Active Listings on the Market, February 1,735, March 2,281 April 2,839 and May is already showing signs of acceleration. Expect more Active Listings in the Days, Weeks and Months ahead.

A quick note here; We could easily absorb and work well with twice this much inventory, but It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Comeback next week and please subscribe; it’s easy…tc

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04/26/2022 #TestimonialTuesday #WhoKnew #BlackSwans

#WhoKnew the Russians would invade the Ukraine? #WhoKnew long term mortgage rates would go up so quickly? #WhoKnew this market would march along almost unaffected by any of these external factors. Let’s see what this week’s MLS numbers are telling us…

New Listing (1182). This is quite an improvement over weeks past. Solid! This should help buyers, but look below…
Coming Soon (421). Another solid number adding to the coming growth of supply, but let’s look further down.
Back On Market (174)
Price Increase (236)
Price Decrease (444). Sellers are finally being punished for coming out too strong.
Pending (1921). WOW!!! This is a huge number. Whenever this number approaches or exceeds 2K, it’s a big week. All those New Listings have new buyers waiting for them…
Withdrawn (71)
Leased (54)
Closed (1489). A solid seasonal number around 1.5K closed is important. I is well above the typical weekly average!!!
Expired (104)
11 County Denver MLS Over the Last 7 Days…

How many Active Listings do we have this month vs. last month? Even though last year was a record year for low inventory, this year in spite of all the #BlackSwans mentioned above, 2022 still has lower inventory than 2021. Hard to believe, but in the 11 counties surrounding Denver, it’s true! Based on history, buyers should be enjoying some more choices over the summer months!

So, as we await this trend of more inventory, let’s keep our cards close to the vest. Get your life in order to be a buyer or a seller. Gather funds and credit to compete as a buyer. De-Clutter and purge if you plan to be a seller.

In spite of market conditions, our buyers are winning at a very high percentage. Our sellers are routinely setting records in their market areas. This is only accomplished by strategic planning and perseverance. Let us help you…tc

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04/19/2022 #Lions #Tigers #WallSt #OhMy

Did you present a contract on your next chapter home and lose out? If so, your IRA PROBABLY FUNDED THE SALE!!! Your homeless, but your IRA is earning 5 or 6% renting the property while you’re in your parent’s basement, on your friends couch or paying rent on an apartment you hate. Yes, your competition might just be a managed fund from Wall Street. Black Rock, Vanguard and a dozen others have determined it’s easy to make money on #MainStreet.

This link will tell you all about it, but long story short, that cash buyer you lost out to might just be from a fund your IRA helped fund.

What’s happened in Denver this week?

New Listing (967). Bummer, this number is lower than last week. Maybe it was Easter Weekend, maybe it was something else, but this has broken a nice trend we were enjoying with growing numbers of New Listings.
Coming Soon (504). On the other hand, this is a huge increase, so, I’m sticking with my Easter Weekend theory.
Back On Market (158)
Price Increase (216)
Price Decrease (354). Many more listings surviving the weekend, so price adjustments are seen as necessary!
Pending (1465). Once again, buyers are finding their way to being Under Contract. This does not bode well for buyers being shut out of the market by more aggressive buyers.
Withdrawn (122)
Leased (56)
Closed (1389). This is a routine seasonal number. In the weeks to come, we will start to see the Closing trend mature and give us a glimpse into the strength of Denver’s Market.
Expired (104)
Denver’s MLS Report for the Last 7 Days

We have been tossed around a little coming into spring. We’ve been thrown at least a couple #curveballs. We watched March tell us, supply and inventory was building, and we had hopes of some relief for buyers being shut out. But, this chart tells us something different.

Time frame is from May 2021 to Apr 2022
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

So, what have we learned this fine spring morning? First, buyers are not only competing against themselves, they are competing agains #WallSt. money too. There really are #Lions and #Tigers confronting buyers in these market times, and it is not fun for participants.

Next, we thought inventory would be starting to grow by this point in the season, especially with rising rates, but it’s not.

Finally, if the number of listings tripled, we’d still be below historical averages of inventory. Buyers in this market can’t catch a break, #OhMy…

We’ll see you next week. In the meantime, watch your P’s and Q’s…tc

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