04/05/2022 #ThisIsHowItWillGoDown #AndOtherMagicalStories

Customers and Clients are always asking me, “What’s going to happen?” Let’s take a walk down Memory Lane. If I ever live long enough to develop a subdivision, it will have the street name of Memory!

This week is about external factors. You know; the stuff we can’t control in Colorado; Denver or even your own neighborhood. When one studies current economic conditions globally, and then by country, state, city and then neighborhood, it’s easy to see we have so much external pressure just waiting to BUST us. Being 500 miles from nowhere, Denver tends to think of itself as an island, BUT… Guess what, we are not! Legislation, attitudes, beliefs and global tension can all sneak in and ruin our party out on the plains and up into the foothills.

Now, I’m not saying all these #BlackSwans are going to jump out of the pond and happen all at once. Over years and a number of market cycles we’ve learned it is “never just one thing”. It is the layering affect. Like baking a cake. A bite from interest rates, weak economic news, a market crash on Wall St., a war, energy costs, affordability, and on and on and on. As the layers of sediment build up, the impact on our local economy becomes sluggish. Fewer buyers show up at our doorsteps, and the “look out” starts to send warning signals. We saw a market like this one in late ’70s and into the early and mid ’80s. Ferocious demand ’76, ’77, ’78 and so on. Subsequently tamed by higher rates and then over supply changed the way we started looking at the market. In some neighborhoods, you could have purchased a home 1982, and 10 years later, in 1992 you might have barely been able to get out of it with any gain at all. In 2004, you could have purchased a new home in the ‘burbs’, loaded it up with cheap debt and suffered through years of very nasty market conditions.

So, why is this cycle anything like these past cycles. Well, it is, and it is not. During this cycle, most of these run up years have been punctuated with strong down payments, equity and expansion in this market. On the other hand, we continue to see these layers move into our market. One at a time, lining up, they threaten the SELLER’S market to which we’ve built a love-hate relationship.

So, what’s my prediction? I believe our market will balance preventing the pendulum from swinging too far in the OTHER direction, but it will move toward a balance. I believe this will start to show up between now and the November Elections. Watch this closely. We should move toward at least a Month’s Supply of inventory by Mid-Summer. As Buyer Fatigue, the constant friction from interest rates, energy costs start getting a firm grip on home budgets and the inevitable tax increase, the layers will start to build up enough resistance to cause supply shortage to slowly drift a Balanced Supply. Now, don’t get me wrong, we have a very well educated population in the demographic group thirsting for homeownership. We have a more senior population aging in place. Finally, for today’s conversation, I don’t see builders becoming the supply source they became in previous cycles. Our land and its development costs are just too high!

Let’s stop here Denver, and let’s get back to what happened in the last week.

New Listing (874) This is a great number. Over the last 4 weeks, we’ve witnessed this Tuesday Number move from the 500s to into the 900s now. Buyers will have a chance?
Coming Soon (356) Wow, this number is up too! Bring It!!!
Back On Market (114)
Price Increase (320). Listing Brokers are raising list prices as multiple offers push prices above active list prices. Nobody is being fooled her, but eventually this will steer statistics.
Price Decrease (300)
Pending (1684). This is a HUGE mid-season number demonstrating the Denver’s Residential Market is still very healthy!
Withdrawn (89)
Leased (43)
Closed (1586). Once again, Sellers and Buyers are finding their way to the closing table.
Expired (217)
These numbers over the last 7 days demonstrate two things.
Buyers are finally getting a few choices, and sellers are still breaking records.

Next up, what has happed to the total number of active listings in the last week? The graph below will give you a hint. Last week we had 1,239 Active Listing and today we have 1,347. Is this our swing toward balance?

Time frame is from May 2021 to Apr 2022
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

Only time will prove one’s story, but I believe this story is well sourced, quickly presented and relevant. Please enjoy…tc

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04/01/2022 Week’s End in Review #MarchMadness

In this market with limited inventory, I’m calling this week a success. We were able to persevere in the $500K range and get one of our first time buyers Under Contract! Yeah!! WE also obtained a new listing in University Park. I’m calling it “NEW CENTURY MODERN”. It has THE BEST contemporary finishes from top to bottom including a solar system, heated floors and a professionally finished basement. It will be in the $2.2M price range with showings available within the next week.

Additionally, we still have buyers voraciously seeking shelter in Wheat Ridge in or around $900K. We have another client seeking shelter near Cheesman Park, Governor’s Park or Capital Hill in an amenity building in or around $400-450K. On this one, we keep losing to “cash buyers”, bummer… And, we have a buyer looking around $1-1.5M in Cherry Creek High School.

We have several buyers not quite here yet, but they will be coming in from Charlotte, NoCal, FL and TX. Long story short, If you have a property to move in this market, we have the buyer for it in hand. ARE YOU READY TO RUMBLE?…. That’s what it feels like some days.

Finally, I know rates have moved up a bit from a year ago, but what hasn’t. I often wonder if we are starting to pay what intrinsic value is rather than cost. Who knows, but with values increasing and rates increasing, month cost for a home will continue to move during 2022. The “water is warm, dip in now, don’t wait”…

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03/29/2022 #smh #DidYouEverWonderWhy #ParadigmShift

Good Morning Folks! We had one of those live meetings or video chats this morning, so, I’m a little slow putting this together. Let’s dive right in. Here are the numbers for this week in the Denver MLS System…

New Listing (735) Well, just slightly up from last Tuesday’s count. This will not solve our supply issues.
Coming Soon (314). If this was to continue, we may start “catching up”.
Back On Market (134)
Price Increase (182)
Price Decrease (248)
Pending (1462) This is a grand mid-season number. On the down side of this, we are seeing so many listings go to contract prior to becoming live in the MLS. “Clear Cooperation” is not something many sellers are buying into.
Withdrawn (78)
Leased (45)
Closed (1254). As these Buyers and Sellers find their way to closing each week, we have to wonder when will this market catch up with itself?
Expired (102)
LSS, Week After Week, We Continue To Observe The Same Market Numbers. A New Paradigm? A New Normal?

Anyway, were are we on the Active Listing Count?

I Hate To Even Mention This, But With Only 1,239 Active Listings This Morning,
We Are Lower Than Last Week At This Same Time!

I’m Shaking My Head. That’s all I can say this morning. I’m not seeing one little impact from Rate Increases, Wars, Energy Costs or Our Cost of Living in this market right now. There are hundreds, maybe thousands of qualified buyers out there, but they don’t have the horse power to offer a seller “Non-refundable” earnest money. They can’t bridge the “Appraisal Gap”. They are fearful of giving up their Inspection or Appraisal Objection. In this new Paradigm, buyers have to be BOLD, BRAVE and possibly even a bit BRASH in order to WIN in this market.

My question is simple. What allows one buyer to go ALL IN, while another buyer can’t pull that same TRIGGER? #DidYouEverWonderWhy?

In the meantime, Dee and Company are off to an amazing start in 2022. Her perseverance, focus and communication skills continue to get her foot in the door. She’s my Realtor for life!

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03/22/2022 #Spring Has Sprung #SpringCleaning #ANewNormal

At this point in the market cycle, we would normally see some break toward the buyer. Sellers are still living the dream, but there may be some hope on the horizon! We have seen a significant shift in the total number of SFRs Active in our 11 Counties surrounding and including Denver increase in numbers.

With this being said, that number is still so far below normal, I’m curious to see how this all unfolds. Will we be living #aNewNormal? Let’s start with the weekly numbers Tuesday to Tuesday.

New Listing (662). This is incredibly low. My hopes for buyers has been dashed again!
Coming Soon (272). Nothing to brag about into the future here!
Back On Market (114)
Price Increase (187)
Price Decrease (201)
Pending (1514). Wow, where are buyers finding these listings? This is a big mid-season number.
Withdrawn (67)
Leased (51)
Closed (1224). Once again, strong weekly numbers here for closings.
Expired (94)
Once again a strong week for sellers, but buyers really had to give up so much for the right to buy!

The two graphs below might lead you to the same conclusion as me. Please, take a look…

For the last 10 years, there has been a general trend of fewer active listings, but as of the end of February, we had only 1,562 Active Listings in the 11 Counties in Metro Denver.

This next graph is the last 12 months of Listing Activity.

Over the last 12 months we’ve seen the number active listings peak in July at 4,478, but then fall to it’s current low level of 1,178 for Single Family Homes.

LSS, we are witnessing limited new inventory coming on the market each week, strong buyer demand sweeping the shelves clean every weekend, and subsequently, available inventory is dragging anchor along the bottom right now. Since March is the historical start of an active listings season, buyers may be in for a rough ride in this market of short supply.

Don’t wait to keep up with home maintenance. It adds up and becomes insurmountable. Keep it clean along the way.

Planning a little spring cleaning this season? Here are some tips to help:
• Declutter and donate first. There’s no point in cleaning items you no longer want or use!
• Start from the top. Begin by dusting the air vents, ceiling fans, and high-up cabinets. Do the floors last.
• Go room by room. Use a checklist to ensure each space gets a deep clean.
• Clean your appliances. Vacuum your refrigerator coils, run a load of bleach through your washer, and degrease that oven.
Don’t forget the outside of your home, too. Clean up the garage, your shed, the yard, and other outdoor spaces. Happy Spring!

Great Weather Coming, Enjoy!

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03/15/2022 #PutinIsABully #ElonMusk #SaveUkraine

I couldn’t help myself. I find this crime against humanity in the Ukraine extremely disturbing. For God’s sake, this is 2022. Really? But, this blog is about #DenverRealEstate; I digress…

Let’s take a look at this week’s events in the market in and around the Denver Residential Real Estate Market… The numbers below are for Single Family Residential Properties in the 11 Counties surrounding Metro Denver.

New Listing (755). New Listings falter compared to last week and my expectations for this week. I was hoping this number would be around 1,000.
Coming Soon (241). This an OK leading indicator, but still not high enough to swing the market place.
Back On Market (119). Still, Buyers and Sellers are keeping these deals together.
Price Increase (202)
Price Decrease (159)
Pending (1480). Wow, this is a mid-season number and demonstrates not war, not rates, not recession worries and not an energy shortage is going to deter the buyer in this market!!!
Withdrawn (89)
Leased (50)
Closed (1146). A solid number for this time of year. Buyers and Sellers once again, working their transaction all the way to the closing table…
Expired (57)
The last 7 days (Tuesday – Tuesday) in Metro Denver

Next up, where are the total number of active listings going?

1,182 Active Listings This Week

The number of Active Listings is only marginally higher week over week, and buyers are still battling to become Homeowners.

We put one under contract yesterday. To Win, our buyer had to offer non-refundable Earnest Money, 20%+ over the Advertised List Price, remove most to all conditions, offer in all cash with funds proofed, and finally in this battle for ownership, our buyer presented their offer to the sellers early with their best offer. That being said, not every buyer has this much horse power, but it stood the test of 8 other written offers with three of them within a few dollars of each other. In this instance, coming in with their highest best early on, allowed this buyer to move to the front of the class and sit with the ‘A’ Students.

On the other hand, we lost one this week simply because our buyer was not strong enough to offer the seller this type of condition free contract, but we will work with them and get them to the “Front Row” too…

Well it’s that time to bring this full circle. Some Brokers in this market place are #Bullies, and there are not many #Heroes like #ElonMusk willing to stand up and fight with you #SavetheBuyer. But, Deirdre and I fight every day for power of homeownership, the joy of being rooted in a community and a better life. Having been through at least 3 major housing cycles in this market place, “This too shall pass.”

Advise for this market; Stay Engaged – It’s a full time job to be a buyer in this market. Work everyday to Improve Your Finances; your credit score is your handicap. Stash Cash – Your ability to have funds to sweeten the deal for the seller is KEY!!! Once you Find Your Neighborhood, your house will find you. Know your market and know your competition. Finally, we will be there for you “Every Step of the Way!”

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Crown Hill Park & Bird Watching

Good Morning Everyone,

In this business, one travels all over the Metro Denver Metroplex at one time or another. I had been driving past #CrownHillPark for years. On this day, I decided to stop and take a walk. I was early to my appointment and had plenty of time.

I learned all about the park. It is somewhat of a #BirdWatcher’s joy. The park has all the requisite features necessary to grip your amygdala and send you down the trail drifting into one’s own thoughts. With loops around Crown Hill Lake as long as 2.5 miles, this is not a small park.

Benches, Viewing Areas, Fishing Areas, even a Horse Arena to provide plenty of stimuli.

So, the next time you’re out in the west-northwest part of Denver (Wheat Ridge/Lakewood), pull over, spend a few minutes and explore another one of Denver’s Treasures…tc

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03/08/2022 #TheGood #TheBad and #TheUgly

Have you ever been trapped on a plane next to an undesirable passenger? Bare Feet, Bad Breath, Drunk, Oversized, you name it; it makes for an uncomfortable trip. I was once witness to a passenger pass out on the floor in front of me by just a few rows. He was so big, it was impossible to move him. He road out the flight on the floor and we stepped over him on the way to the jetway. I was told by the passenger sitting next to him, “He’s on the way to meet his girl friend in Denver”...

So, what is this all about Tom? It’s about the unpredictability of the world, country, state, county, city and community in which we live. Can you imagine? In the real world, one’s HOA can raise the month fee, one’s city can raise sales tax, one’s county can stop offering services like trash pick up, one’s state could stop the exploration for natural gas, the US could make leaving one’s home against the law, and a world leader could invade your country and systematically remove family, friends and neighbors from this planet.

Let’s see how all this has affected us over the last 7 days…

New Listing (823) Here’s the GOOD! If you are a buyer, we can now say we are into the seasonal growth of new listings on a weekly basis. The number of new listings coming to market has grown for the last 3 weeks. Ready Set Buyers…
Coming Soon (252) Same as last week here.
Back On Market (108) This is solid. Less than 10% of contracts failed.
Price Increase (282)
Price Decrease (151)
Pending (1422) Buyer activity is real and rates aren’t slowing them down!!!
Withdrawn (79)
Leased (45)
Closed (1238) Once again, buyers and sellers are finding their way to the closing table…
Expired (158)
11 Counties, Last 7 Days, Listing Activity

With this excitement behind us over the last 7 days, what has happened with the total number of active listings?

Live Active Listings Over the Last 12 Months

OK Everybody, we are here to show you that even with all the new Pending Listings over the last 7 days, we have seen a solid 10% growth in the Total Active Listings. Let’s digest this.

WE may have seen the best week to be a seller. Rates, War, Inventory Increasing may be conspiring to shift this market toward a more NORMAL mix of supply and demand; MAYBE? Whenever any kind of market tries to return to “normalcy” it takes time, and the numbers will be volatile.

Moving forward, of course, we will be following this very closely and bringing updates to you weekly but for today; The GOOD is growing supply (Not normal but better for buyers), The BAD has to be interest rates. Every 1% increase in 30 year fixed interest rate takes 10% of the potential buyers out of the market. Whenever buyers are removed from the market due to economics, it’s a bad thing! The UGLY has to be the uncertainty surrounding world events. Watching WAR from one’s TV is heart wrenching and truly disturbing!

In the final analysis this week, if you are a potential seller, let’s started sooner rather than later. If you are a buyer in this market, let’s sit down and go through the steps necessary to compete in this market. There is a formula for success. We can help you with that…tc

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03/01/2022 #BlackSwan vs. #GoldenGoose

My goodness, how a few days can change the world. However this Ukraine Invasion goes, the World will never be the same. This week, the #BlackSwan has been much stronger than the #GoldenGoose! Far and away, the events in the Ukraine have monopolized our thoughts, prayers and plans moving forward.

How will this international turmoil impact us in Denver, “500 miles from nowhere”? Let’s take a look back over the last 7 days.

New Listing (657) YEAH!!! This is higher than last week, but last year at this time, we had 706 new listings and I called that number “embarrassingly low”!!! We NEED inventory badly.
Coming Soon (258) This may be the help we need however small, it is almost double a couple of weeks ago…
Back On Market (99)
Price Increase (192)
Price Decrease (132)
Pending (1307) A great number, but more Pendings than New and ultimately we will continue to have a market in SHORTAGE.
Withdrawn (59)
Leased (58)
Closed (1306). This is a strong number, but not earth shaking. It continues to prove the demand in this market place is getting buyers and sellers to the Table in typical fashion.
Expired (193)
Data from MLS over the last 7 days.

Hallelujah! The number of Active Listings is UP! BUT, only by 50-75 new listings; hardly enough to swing things toward the BUYER with so much competition.

The National Economy, Local Economy, Job Growth, Demographics, Interest Rates, Affordability and with only 1,012 Active Listings, we will continue to have a shortage problem. Remember, in 2012 we had about 25,000 to 30,000 active listings!!! Even a few months ago, we had well over 4,000 active listings.

Last 12 Months

Now it is time to stitch these events and pressures on our market place together. Obviously, our #BlackSwans have to be #Ukraine and #Rates. There is plenty of evidence it will not be pretty when the smoke settles in the Ukraine. There are many market pundits believing rates are going to race to 5%. This can’t be good. I’d love to hear your thoughts.

On the other hand, the #GoldenGoose of Denver Demand has not skipped a beat. Working with 5 different buyers submitting offers over the last week, all 5 lost to offers more than 10% above list prices and “all cash”. The Demographics in Denver have ganged up on the buyer. We rank #4 for Boomers aging in place (Not Moving). We rank very high with two income millennial buyers seeking their first homes. New Construction can’t keep pass. Because our market remains so strong, we have attracted every “Quick Offer”, “Fix and Flipper”, “Investor” and more. Demand, Demand and more Demand in this market place is the focus right now.

We will work hard for you interests, guide you through the maze and advise you how to become the “A” Student in the Front Row getting the most attention for your offer. In over 40 years in the residential market in Denver, we have never observed anything like this, and we have certainly never seen a market like this last so long. We are all in uncharted territory. You need a team of battle worn, experienced experts who know the Denver Market like the backs of their hands. Please read our Testimonials at TheCryerTeam.com for confirmation. Thank You…

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2-22-22 #Twosday #WWTCD

I’ve promised many times over the years with this blog to keep you honestly informed on Denver Market Watch Events. Let’s dig deep today!

New Listing (627) On a percentage basis this number is up 20%, but starting from such a low baseline, it hardly puts a dent in the shortage buyers are facing in this market.
Coming Soon (213) Once again, up about 25%, but this will hardly make a difference.
Back On Market (96) Really unchanged here.
Price Increase (155) This is a tactic Listing Agents have been employing when too many offers come in over List Price. I’m not sure what it does for the transaction.
Price Decrease (160) This number is little changed.
Pending (1340) With more supply, we would be getting even more accepted contracts. This shows us the “Back Room” is full of demand. If this opens up with even more moving into March and April, could we set some records? Maybe!
Withdrawn (71)
Leased (41)
Closed (937) This number has not jumped. Let’s look at this next week as we roll into month’s end.
Expired (75)
The Last 7 Days in Metro Denver’s MLS

So, overall, we are starting to see some seasonal growth in weekly inventory. I would follow this up with, “I wish I could see April’s Numbers now!”

Let’s look at the total of active listings in all price ranges in the Denver Metro MLS System.

This Chart Tells Us There Are Only 917 Active Listings This Morning. It’s TwosDay!!!

So, as I like to say/write, “Long Story Short”, If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines because you are smarter than the market and are willing to wait this out for the next, “BIG SHORT”, enjoy yourself. If you are ready to buy, and have a 3-5 year horizon in Denver, (#WWTCD) I’d be a buyer. Home ownership is a wonderful thing. Just ask me. The benefits of homeownership are far reaching; make no mistake about it!

We would be proud to walk into battle with you. Please give us a call. Let’s make a battle plan and take this market on together…tc

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02/15/2020 #FiguresDon’tLie #LiarsFigure #TestimonialTuesday

In this business, a Testimonial is like premium gas at the pump. It gives the old 4-Wheeler a lift, a jolt and smile! So, here goes, #TestimonialTuesday…

This is the fifth deal that I’ve done with TOM and Dee. They helped me purchase my dream home and they also helped me get $50,000 over ask for my current condo. They have far exceeded all expectations and I don’t know of a better duo. From my first deal years ago where I had no idea what I was doing to being a well educated consumer at this point, I owe it all to the both of them. They are so knowledgeable, so professional, and get the deal done. They are my realtors for life!”

What about Statistics and Figures? Let’s start with some Denver History. In 1976, fresh out of the University of Denver, I was charged with developing my knowledge of Denver’s Residential History. Being a Residential Archaeologist was not easy. Nobody even knew what it was, but I set off on my mission to understand the nuances of Denver’s neighborhoods and sub-markets. Long story short, I learned there is no such thing as an Average Market, but there is an average. I learned a few other things along the way to be sure, but this market has taught us something crucial about “Residential Archaeology”. “But, it’s different this time”…, holds true. We are into this for years now. No Denver Market has ever accomplished what this one has. So, let’s look at the numbers for Single Family Residential Listings/Sales in the 11 Counties in and around Denver.

I guess what this little exercise is going to show us is how Appreciation operates within a market. This first graph will show you the top end of the market with those transactions over $2,000,000.

Notice in this Chart above, we’ve exploded from 120 sales in 2012 over $2M to more than 1,200 sales in 2021 over $2M. A TEN Fold Increase in the Number of Transactions OVER $2M…

Now, let’s look what’s happened under $400K in the Denver Metro Market since 2012 in the chart below.

The Number of Single Family Sales Has Decreased Under $400K. We’ve dropped from 40,000 Sales in 2012 to under 20,000 sales in 2021. This has pushed the entry level buyer out of the market with the lack of inventory.

So real briefly here, with Appreciation, the Expansion of the Denver Metro Area and the Growth of superior employment opportunities, Denver has become more Affluent. On the same hand, we now have fewer residential opportunities on the lower end of the price scale due to Appreciation. So, on one end, we have more money and on the other end, we’ve wiped away entry level opportunities and created the Famed Housing Shortage. We all know it is more complicated than this, but there is no denying money can’t buy one happiness, but it sure helps when one is trying to buy a house in Denver.

IN CLOSING, I don’t believe this figures to be lying, but it always possible to take another perspective when it comes to figures. Give it a shot and let me know what you think.

Remember, Buying, Selling, Investing in Denver Residential Real Estate requires an expert. With Decades of Battle Tested Experience by your side, The Cryer Team is what you need, want and must have. Dee and Tom are here for you every step of the way…tc

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