10/11/2022 #Who’sAffraid #YouGottaBe #TerrificTuesday

Posted on October 11, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Warren Buffet is often credited with the quote, “When people are greedy, be fearful, but when people are fearful, be greedy”, and I suppose this advice would serve us well right now. There is a lot of fear on the street right now. Investors fear the market, Buyers fear the rates, Voters fear the “other party”, Russia fears Ukraine, North Korea fears South, some people fear everything and others fear nothing. Where do you stand. Do you believe #HomeOwnership is something to be feared? If you have studied the market and believe in homeownership, there should be no fear.

Des’ree performed a very popular “one hit wonder” called “You Gotta Be”. One of the verses goes like this.

Time asks no questions, it goes on without you
Leaving you behind if you can't stand the pace
The world keeps on spinning
Can't stop it if you tried to
The best part is danger staring you in the face, oh
Terrific Tuesday

I guess my point today is over simplified with so much turmoil surrounding us all. When one has a home to return to after a day of the “hustle and bustle”, it is a feeling of secure comfort. So go ahead, enjoy a Terrific Tuesday…

The “brittle edges” I wrote about last week are becoming more apparent. New Listings are greater than Pending UC Listings and Closed Listings. This is pushing the market toward a balance, but as the fed pushes rates, they may impact supply and demand ratios. We will be watching this very closely. Additionally, Price Adjustments are becoming a common thing as the market is failing to adjust on the front end of the listing and causing extending marketing times too.

Here’s what the numbers look like over the last 7 days…

New Listing (1220)
Coming Soon (132)
Back On Market (360)
Price Increase (163)
Price Decrease (1967)
Pending (1024)
Withdrawn (284)
Leased (57)
Closed (949)
Expired (268)

As you can see below, the total number of Active Listings has flatlined. We are keeping a very close eye on this. If total supply starts to outstrip demand, this will become a market with cause for fear?

The last 3 months have ended with 7,300 Listing in July, 6,914 Listings in August and not 6,979 at the end of September. We will keep a close eye on how October closes out.

Active Single Family Listings in Metro Denver over the last 10 years.

We are going through a dramatic period of uncertainty right now. Dee and I will be here for you. Answering questions, providing expertise, helping you make plans, finding resources, and making sure your home is everything you dreamed it would be…tc

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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10/04/2022 #TuesdayVibe #WhipSaw #LorettaLynn

Posted on October 4, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Denver Megaplex,

I hope you and yours are doing well and the events of the last week or so have not been harmful to you, your family, your associates or your friends. I follow #ReedTimmer, the storm chaser, and it is just chilling to see his onsite commentary of the events in SW Florida. This is Tuesday, however, and we will be raising everybody up!!

Let’s talk about our external environment for just a moment. #WallStreet has been #WhipSawed the last few months to the point where everyone has “eaten some crow”. 2, 3, 4% swings from day to day at this point is having an effect on the world around it. Builders, Lender, Investors and Savers have been harmed by this lack of market focus. I am starting to see a ground swell of focus in the next 30-60 days. #Election, #Fed and #Economy will drive this perspective forward making this #TuesdayVibe thrive…

Oh No, “The Coal Miner’s Daughter” no longer walks this earth with us after 90 strong and productive years. Our sincere condolences will hopefully ride along with her. RIP Loretta, You’ll always be our “Honky Tonk Girl”…

Jumping off into the last 7 days in Denver, the numbers look OK, but there are a few signs of brittleness in the market which we will discuss below.

New Listing (1271) A normal seasonal week here.
Coming Soon (123) This number is dropping off.
Back On Market (323) Speaking from our own transactions. Sellers are not learning to correct physical defects on their property fast enough.
Price Increase (86)
Price Decrease (1996) This represents one third of all listings moving forward with price improvements. It is very important to price ahead of the market.
Pending (1113) Another normal seasonal week. Demand is still with us, but it is more measured.
Withdrawn (290)
Leased (67)
Closed (1381) This is a great number anytime it is more than the # of New Listings, and it is this week.
Expired (596) This is a little brittle here. #SellerFatigue is real, and it is happening here.

So, the long story short here is simple. The Denver Market shows great signs of health, but there are a few rough edges predominantly stunted by interest rates. Once again, the #Election, the #Fed and #WallStreet will go a long way to helping us predict the future between now and the end of 2022. I’m going to be the optimist and say, “It will mostly be good”.

Now, let’s follow along with a spotlight on active listings. Supply is always a key indicator, and once again, the number of Active Listings is down over last week.

As you can see above, we it our peak of Active Listings for 2022 a few weeks ago, and
it has been down each week ever since.

One last thing today. One of our clients was curious about Days on Market or DOM this year. As you can see below, it is up, but still below the 4 of the last 6 years. 28 Days is actually pretty healthy and indicative of a “more normal market”. Homes should not sell in 24 hours!

DOM over the last 5-6 years.

As always, please lean in on our expertise. Ask questions, educate yourself, and get comfortable with the market before making a decision like #homeownership.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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09/27/2022 #IMHO #ElectionYear #It’sOK #SellerFatigue

Posted on September 27, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

This gallery contains 2 photos.

In My Humble Opinion, the world will not come to an end anytime soon. No, I’m not a scientist, politician or soothsayer, but I have been on earth a long time. Here’s what I have learned. In 1970, I attended … Continue reading →

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09/20/2022 #BlackSwans #Rate#Light-Rail #News #Trust #QueenElizabeth #WallStreet

Posted on September 20, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Last year I wrote liberally about #BlackSwans. Some of those Swans have come home to roost. Rates, war, Covid, supply chain, shortages, and more, but clearly right now in Denver, rates are the most impactful for our market. As of yesterday, we are up approximately 3% just this year.

Apparently, rents in Denver are higher near #Light-Rail. There is also some indication residential real estate values are higher within a 7 minute walk of a #Light-Rail Station.

The #News can’t wait to take a quote from #Redfin, #Zillow, #Compass or at least half a dozen other publicly traded real estate companies. These companies are often quoted in news shorties. The sad reality of the source is often times, these companies are unprofitable or rarely have a profitable quarter. So, do you #Trust these sources for real estate news or should you #Trust the valuable insights of the “boots on the ground” from your Realtor living, working and playing in your world? #RealEstateIsLocal

And of course, I’m remiss in not starting with memory of #QueenElizabeth. It will be interesting to see if the #NewKing can keep the lid on everything as well as the Queen.

#WallStreet becomes more closely linked everyday with its link to residential real estate. Wall Street funds own hundreds of thousands of single family home in America. Effectively forcing first time buyers in many markets to be “renters for life”. This investment strategy is not #Homeownership friendly, and we all know, #Homeownership is the most valuable and most stabilizing force in any community. Heaven forbid #WallStreet helping first time buyers rather than inhibiting them.

Now let’s see what happened in Denver Single Family Residential Market over the last 7 days…

New Listing (1362) A typical seasonal number, not too many, not too few…
Coming Soon (144)
Back On Market (310)
Price Increase (112)
Price Decrease (1933) This number continues to reflect Broker/Seller living in an alternative universe when it comes to pricing.
Pending (1311) Almost matching the number of new listings is always an indication of strength in the marketplace.
Withdrawn (257)
Leased (62)
Closed (1189) I’m happy to see the number of closings this week. In spite of skyrocketing interest rates, almost 1,200 Buyers and Sellers made it to the closing table.
Expired (233)

Once again, the long story short, the strength in Denver’s market is still very apparent with very few signs of weakness. But, let’s be clear, Interest Rates are up again over the last week. There is a huge weight on Jerome Powell’s back right now. Will the FED make the correct decision? We will know sooner rather than later as we approach the end of September.

Now, let’s take a look at available Active Listings.

We’ve “rounded” the top of the Active Listing Growth. What’s next?

Hello Again, here’s a quick look at the numbers. We finished May with 4,261 Active Listings (AL), we finished June with 6,276 ALs, we finished July with 7,192, we finished August with 6,610 and currently in September we stand with 6,155. These are not wild “oversupply” numbers indicative of a price crash in the Denver Single Family Market. These numbers come from 11 counties surrounding and including Denver of almost 1.5M residential properties. THE SKY IS NOT FALLING…

Today we can celebrate, it’s a good life and in spite of what goes on around us, we are in pretty good shape. This does not mean, translating this market into definable notions is easy, but with our help along the way, we can make the ride more comfortable.

Let us lead you toward opportunities; Dee and Tom Cryer MyTownCryer@Kentwood.com

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09/13/2022 #AlrightAlrightAlright #Passages #Family #Home

Posted on September 13, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

It’s been a crazy week to say the least. WE have never seen a “Midterm Election” where so much money has been or will be spent. Everyone has an idea or not, but the belief is simple, “Mine is better”… Really? Will you own up to it when it’s not, Calamity? Jane?

Anyway, I digress. Today, let’s look at the last 7 days, and then we will review the big picture.

New Listing (1509) This is a very high volume week from what we’ve been seeing.
Coming Soon (159)
Back On Market (285)
Price Increase (134)
Price Decrease (1817) This is the highest I’ve seen this number this year.
Pending (1260) A solid week, but clearly less than the new inventory it’s chasing.
Withdrawn (225)
Leased (58)
Closed (1208) Another solid week of closings even with a three day weekend on one end.
Expired (223)

How about the bigger picture?

We ended July with 7,152 and opened September with 6,455 Active Listings.

One of the nice things about being a Residential Market Observer is its simplicity. It moves slowly, its influencing variables are readily visible and we have so many sources of information to disaffirm or affirm our anecdotal presence. Make sense? Long story short, the sky is not falling. Here’s what’s happening now. Due primarily to interest rates and their rapid increase, buyers are taking a breather, sellers have not understood the importance of appropriate pricing, presentation and location on value, and pundits generally are not “boots on the ground” in the marketplace, and as a result, the nuances we see on the street are often overlooked.

Please, never let an exterior opinion on market conditions cloud your judgement as to what you are experiencing on “Main Street”. Remember, “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure”. That’s a little pragmatic, but when someone in New York is making predictions about your market in Centennial, it may not be completely accurate. Residential Real Estate is LOCAL. You need LOCAL assistance. Walk the Block to understand your market. Lean in on LOCAL professionals.

And remember, we are here for you every step of the way.

Dee and Tom Cryer TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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09/06/2022 #Homeownership #NationalReadABookDay #BeingThere

Posted on September 6, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

If you want a quick read for your National Read a Book Day, Being There would be my choice. It’s only 165 pages, it created a very comedic film of the same name. It plays well into a more humorous political scene but very poignant. So, Being There!

The growth in Total Number of Active Listings has turned…

Let’s also take a look at this week’s numbers.

New Listing (1033) With a 3 day weekend signalling the “end of summer”, this number is low and very telling.
Coming Soon (232) No Different than last week’s number.
Back On Market (244)
Price Increase (87)
Price Decrease (1349) A big number, but not as big as last week’s number.
Pending (1167) Better than the number of new listings. First time in more than a month.
Withdrawn (228)
Leased (45)
Closed (1289) End of the month numbers here. “Let’s get this closed so we have the long weekend to move in/move out!“
Expired (509) This is telling us, 509 Sellers just gave up. DO YOUR HOMEWORK BEFORE HITTING THE MARKET!

With the number of ACTIVE LISTINGS down from last week by almost 800 from last week, we are seeing the typical End of Summer, Back to School and Vacation Week playing its typical roll in the marketplace. Once again, it’s telling me #TheSkyIsNotFalling!

Hardly a day goes by when at least one person doesn’t ask, “Tom, what’s the market doing?” My answer is almost always the same. Our market is doing quite well. If 2022 hadn’t happened the way it did, we would all be talking about how good the market is, and what a great time it is to move up in Denver.

Long story short, we have to get past an election. Someone or something needs to figure out how to unite the W2 worker vs. the 1099 worker, the #HomeOwner vs. the tennant, the Democrat vs. the Republican, the wealthy vs. the poor, the Suburbs vs. the City and those vs. Rural America, and all the other wrifts we have in the great country. I don’t know who or what it will be, but it will happen…

In the meantime, First Time Buyers and Last Time Sellers both tell me, owning a home has been a great improvement their lives. Step into the market, the waters are calm. We’ll be there for you every step of the way…tc

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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08/30/2022 #Elections #HomeOwnership #Unafiliated #Voter #Republican #Democrat

Posted on August 30, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

I wanted to add some comments this morning about the upcoming election in Colorado. Did you know as of 08/01/2022 according to the Colorado Secretary of State, there are 3,691,401 active registered voters in Colorado? Did you know of those 3.7M voters, 1.65M of those are Unaffiliated Voters; 931K of those voters are Republican and about 1M of those registered are Democrat. This tells me, almost half of all registered active voters in Colorado prefer not to be branded by a Party… Interesting, isn’t it?

At the same time, voter participation in Colorado continues to be as high as ever. The shift toward the Unaffiliated Voter is more about Party Alignment but not voting. Basically, 1.65 registered voters find freedom being a voter from the outside in rather than the inside out. As an example, as an unaffiliated voter, I can vote in either primary, but not both. Interesting times in which we live?

One thing is for sure, November will come and go. Some number of us will be happy with the election results on the day after and some number will be unhappy. But, the sun will come up in the morning…

Over the last 7 days in the Denver MLS, the stats are not offering anything truly new to the story. Please follow along…

New Listing (1252) This is not indicative of a market where sellers want to get out and run. It is typical seasonal weekly number.
Coming Soon (95)
Back On Market (291) Deals falling is typical, but this is starting to be on the high side. Is it rates, inspections or fear?
Price Increase (90)
Price Decrease (1604) This is a very telling number. Of the 6-7,000 active listings in our market area, about 25% required a Price Decrease to move toward a written offer.
Pending (1388) This is actually quite a strong weekly number. Maybe since the Listing the buyer wanted was priced appropriately, making an offer became more acceptable?
Withdrawn (211)
Leased (68)
Closed (1128) Not a great week, but clearly an acceptable week.
Expired (226)

However we measure the weekly activity, it still shows great strength with a lot of buyer/seller cooperation going on. From a Broker’s point of view, this is shaping up to be a very fair and more normal market. If you are a buyer who has been waiting on the sideline, maybe now will be a great opportunity for you to find the right property. Let us show you how.

As we close out August, we have 7,010 Active Residential Listings.

The Last 10 Years

What are some of the factors causing the market to build inventory? Interest Rates, Affordability, Fear, Election Anxiety, Economic Fortunes, War, Supply Chain, Inflation, Stagflation, and more. What has impacted your decision to buy or sell in this market?

Homeownership is one of these most important factors to our country’s fabric. Homeownership improves communities, increases participation, improves schools, neighborhood safety is clearly better than areas of low ownership rates and more. Take advantage of Homeownership. It helps everyone!

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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08/23/2022 #MoodoftheMarket @themotleyfool #ColoradoQuotes #TheCryerTeam

Posted on August 23, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

dollar-currency-money-us-dollar-47344.jpeg“Buyers want last year’s prices. Sellers want next year’s prices.” – JF

“Everybody needs money.  That’s why they call it money.”  –  Heist

“I constructed a laboratory in the neighborhood of Pike’s Peak. The conditions in the pure air of the Colorado Mountains proved extremely favorable for my experiments, and the results were most gratifying to me.” – Nikola Tesla

Almost every week when constructing this little post, I’m struck by the thoughts that race through my head.  These three quotes have been running around in my head for the last little bit, so I’m sharing them this morning.  Enjoy…

This week’s MLS Stats are not dramatically different from last week, but let’s get granular!
New Listing (1307)  Clearly, this is not a dramatic change, but it is lower than last week.
Coming Soon (144)
Back On Market (276)
Price Increase (117)
Price Decrease (1697)  Sellers are still trying to “milk” the market for that last $, and it is clearly not working.  This is NOT the time to challenge price in this market.
Pending (1401) This is nice strong number.  This is a good week!  Rates did dip a bit…???
Withdrawn (247)
Leased (82)
Closed (1170)  Now, this is nothing to brag about, but it is still over 1K per week.  This is the line in the sand for me.
Expired (246)

Overall, there is nothing to brag about here, but once again, NOT a bad week at all, “Henny Penny, the sky is NOT falling!”

What about total numbers?  Let’s take a look…

Looking at the number of Active Listings over the last ten years on this chart, it is important to note, we are currently more than 3 times the number of Active Listings from January, 2022, but that was an all time LOW. Right now, we are seeing the number of new listings each week rounding off the top of the chart, and I believe this will continue through the end of the year. This assumes rates will stay in their current range without another dramatic SPIKE!

The word GRANULAR became front and center this week. We have the tools, knowledge and skill to create a personalized search for you presenting only the properties of YOUR interest.

Lean In On Us… We’ll be there for you! TheCryerTeam@mytowncryer

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08/16/2022 #RoseanneRoseannadanna #83Days #ILoveHistory #DenverMarketWatch

Posted on August 16, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

“Good Morning Vietnam”! Just an old Robin WIlliams movie, but always a great wake up call… I’m of an age where I was right on the cusp of the draft ending, the war in Vietnam ending and Richard Nixon ending. The reason I bring this up? Over the last year, I have mentioned the age we are in feels, looks, and acts a lot like the ’70s, but far and away, the music was much better then!

#GildaRadner was Roseanne Roseannadanna a character on SNL. Once again, SNL was so much better in the ’70s.

Of course, we are just #83Days until our next election day. Learn about your local election commission’s role in your election balloting process. I spent time with our town’s election commission. I learned a lot.

#ILoveHistory? Well, I have the good fortune to revisit so many books from the past and to be exposed to new works of recent history via Libby (Audio Books for Free). This is good fortune to be able to consume books while multitasking. (Driving) Anyway, you’re probably here to read my take on Denver’s Residential Market. Most weeks, I post pertinent stats on Denver’s Single Family Residential Market. Please subscribe, and follow along…

New Listing (1414) This is not an unusually high number. Seasonally, it might even be considered an average weekly number.
Coming Soon (160)
Back On Market (239)
Price Increase (78)
Price Decrease (1633) Sellers continue to price off the past rather than what’s in the here and now.
Pending (1425) Just a couple of months ago, this was a common occurrence; More Pending each week than New. Is this seasonal or just an anomaly? Only time will tell.
Withdrawn (253)
Leased (70)
Closed (1189) Now, this number is not low, but it is certainly not representative of a typical summer week… Should this continue, the total listing count can only go up!
Expired (230)

So, over the last 7 days, above, we’ve seen an almost identical overlay of the last few weeks, and up from last week’s 6,657 total SFRs Active, this week we have 6,809 Active. Not significant, but clearly moving in the wrong direction for sellers. Please Keep In Mind, exactly 10 years ago, we had 14,146 Active SFR Listings. Let’s see that on a chart.

Active SFR Listings in Denver Metro for the Last 10 Years.

So, what’s my rendition of the true story on Denver’s Market? Follow along please…

  • Interest Rates are up +/-2%. An old rule of thumb is every 1% increase takes 10% of active buyers out of the market. Have we lost 20% of our buyers? Tough to tell on that one, but we have lost a bunch…
  • We have had an unbelievable run in our market. People who purchased 10 years ago have easily doubled there purchase price in most market segments. Of course, we were coming out of the “worst recession since the ‘Great Depression’. When the base is low, it is easy to build on it.
  • For the most part, these things weigh heavily on our market, but I do not believe in any fashion will we face the trauma of 2006-2011…
  • Denver’s Demographics have been perfect for the SFR market. All ages have been buyers. Household formation has been brisk.
  • We continue to rank high on places for seniors to “Age in Place”. That will continue to keep resale inventory lower than some other markets.
  • My Forecast? WE are not going to experience the type of Appreciation sellers have enjoyed, and I don’t see a pathway to serious Depreciation such as we experienced in the last decade. It’s a good life!

In the meantime, lean in on TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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O8/09/2022 @RideRTD #DenverMonsoon #Broncos #ThoseWereTheDays #VirtualClosings

Posted on August 9, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

This month, RTD is free! Beware standing water. Pre-Season Broncos with new owners; so many questions! Who remembers jumbo jets driving over I-70? My first computer was (Expensive) arrived 1984. Don’t believe it when anyone says “paperless”. It still hasn’t happened!

Well, what happened in the last 7 days with Denver Real Estate?

New Listing (1428) Clearly not a growing concern here.
Coming Soon (198)
Back On Market (280)
Price Increase (103)
Price Decrease (1803). Agressive Sellers are getting their hands slapped.
Pending (1438). A nice strong seasonal number!
Withdrawn (259)
Leased (51)
Closed (1043). Now, here’s one that’s off a bit. Let’s watch this closely…
Expired (233)

And, with total active listings?

6,657 Active Listings Today.

I’m not seeing a notion for alarm here. A picture tells a thousand stories, right? We are still in the swing of things. Here’s my prediction. We will stop seeing double digit appreciation. We will see 5% and less around the metro area. The sky is not falling.

A couple of trends we are seeing. First, buyers are being extremely critical of condition, appeal and location. What would have passed through 6 months ago is becoming a significant point of negotiation in today’s market. Prep your home for sale. Second, pricing with sales from 6 months ago will probably hurt your chances of a quick sale today. Finally, participation with buyers’ interest rates is taking place. #BuyDownsAreBack

Lean on us! That’s why we are here… TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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