Below you will find my quick chart on the last 7 days in Denver.
Denver Metro Market Watch
New Listing 1500 This is noticeably higher from recent weeks. Coming Soon 173 Back On Market 319 Price Increase 155 Price Decrease 2098 This is the highest number of weekly Price Reductions I’ve seen! It’s tough out there. Pending 1355 Not a bad week, but certainly not keeping up with the New Listings. Withdrawn 202 Leased 0 Closed 979 In line with recent weeks, but with the dip in rates, I would have expected more. Expired 308
What is this telling us? The short of it is, supply is growing an demand remains level. This is not healthy in the long term.
Below, you will see the number of Active Listings available now.
We are seeing an increase in supply over May’s Report of 8,154, but a decline over June which was 8,976, and a decline over July which was 9,084 to a current level of 8,735 in late August. We now have definitive data telling us “the sky is not falling”. We will see a slow value erosion in the 1-2% range through the end of 2024. 2024 With lower rates should see this turn around to a 1-2% increase in Q1-2024.
With all this said, the waters are uncertain in the short term. Don’t change that channel, we will be back again next week sharing, caring, and preparing another MyTownCryer Newsletter just for you.
Discussing Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness with a list of clients over the last few days, without exception, #TheElection was the #1 factor affecting their home purchase decision. “If this person gets elected, I will spend less, if this person gets elected, I might spend more.” The conundrum wrapped in a riddle surrounded by an enigma will be with us for at least the next 70 days, and then the fallout will carry over. The cost of freedom is not inexpensive!
I was traveling last week. I conversed with participants from 23 states. Overall, it’s a good life. Let’s get right into the Denver Metro Market update.
Please look at the chart below to get an inference into what’s been happening for the last 7 days.
Denver Market Watch New Listing (1317) This is a solid week. Good supply numbers for buyers. Coming Soon (97) Back On Market (265) Price Increase (316) Price Decrease (1803) This is a critical sign. Brokers are not anticipating their listing’s potential. Pending (1267) Not a bad week, but nothing here to skew the market trend. Withdrawn (206) Leased (0) Closed (1014) Better than past weeks, and a sign of life here. I like it! Expired (313)
On a grander scale, this is nothing inflammatory here. Solid numbers albeit nothing earth-shaking, but something to build on as we move into the fall season with an election on our backs.
Let’s turn the tables just a little bit and see what the Total Number of Active Listings has been doing.
After a slight pause in July, we have returned to a slowly increasing level of Active Listings. Although just a few hundred each week, at the end of August, we have twice as many Active Listings on the market today than in January 2024. Troubling yes, and burdensome, but this is nowhere near the numbers from the Housing Bubble of 2008-2012. We will see sold price statistics fall by 1 or 2% by years end. Should we gain access to interest rates under 6%, prices will stabilize, and if it nears 5% for fixed rates, we will see prices increase to some degree. I digress, the public sentiment coming out of the other side of the election will be the most impactful for the rest of 2024.
We are out there every day, gauging the market’s strengths and weaknesses. Lean in on us, get our scoop, and gain strength in the marketplace from the knowledge we can’t wait to share. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com
The construction of the rail line linking Cheyenne and Denver was widely credited at the time for reviving the city of Denver, which had been founded at the time of the Colorado Gold Rush and incorporated on November 7, 1861. The decision to build the transcontinental railroad to the north had left the fledgling city stranded from the major transportation routes. Many at the time expected that Cheyenne would blossom into the major population center of the region. As a result, Thomas Durant, vice president of the Union Pacific, pronounced Denver “too dead to bury.” Colorado Territorial Governor John Evans declared that “Colorado without railroads is comparatively worthless.”
As a result, Evans, together with other local business leaders, including David Moffat, William Byers (founder of the Rocky Mountain News), Joseph E. Bates, Bela M. Hughes, Walter Cheesman and Luther Kountze partnered with East Coast investors to form a railroad company that would link the Denver City and to a lesser degree the Territory of Colorado with the national rail network. The company was incorporated in the Territory of Colorado on November 19, 1867 as the “Denver Pacific Railway and Telegraph Company.” A sense of urgency existed for this Denver based corporation, due to the formation of a rival, the Colorado, Clear Creek and Pacific Railway (later the Colorado Central), by W.A.H. Loveland and citizens of nearby Golden, with the intention of linking that city directly with Cheyenne and making Golden the natural hub of the territory.
Without these forward-thinking business leaders, Denver may have been left to rust on the high prairie. I always find it interesting how one key decision changes the historical paradigm forever.
Let’s look at this week’s numbers.
Market Watch New Listing (1289) A good week, not a great week. Sellers still waiting to become part of the market. Coming Soon (146) Back On Market (291) WOW! This is a big number. Deals are falling at a 25% rate. Price Increase (111) Price Decrease (2283) Still too many! Pending (1237) An average week for this season. Withdrawn (214) Leased (0) Closed (934) Not keeping up with Total Active Listings. Supply increasing again? Expired (295)
Now, let’s look at the total supply of Active Listings.
We’ve observed the inventory numbers jump from 4,748 in January to 8,694 today, but this is a decline from the end of June which reported 8819 Active Listings, but it is a bump from last week of about 170 New Active Listings.
Just as Denver’s Founding Fathers, made plans for a RailRoad Spur, 24-30 years ago, we had another group of leaders beating their drums for a NEW AIRPORT. An international airport with immense size and capabilities resulted. Denver International Airport, which most people don’t realize, is the 3rd busiest US Airport, and the 6th busiest worldwide. Denver is on the map!
Being a major transportation hub, it created its dominance as a distribution center and the economic center for the Rocky Mountain Region. Does this cement Denver’s place for the next 150 years? If history is prone to repeat itself, I would say so.
Reach out and we’ll give you the rundown on all the nuances of Denver History and its surrounding confines.
When I can’t think of a topic, I throw a bunch of ideas on the Subject Line and wait to see what sticks. Today, it looks like everything sticking.
#Summer is not over just because schools are opening. You can still go to the pool, etc. Personally, I have always believed September offers one of the best months in Colorado, and somehow, it was hijacked by public schools systems across the state. I do not like it one little bit!
#Election2024 is going to go down as one of the most disruptive in our history. It is already way out of the normal bounds of election protocol, but there will be more! I promise. Put your tray tables in their upright position.
#Rates, this is the first moment this year for me I have felt rates might ease a bit before the election. With the gyrations on #WallStreet, a huge portion of the population on fixed income (And loving every minute of this added income), and home buyers/sellers putting off their buy/sell decisions, we might actually see a window of opportunity in the next few months. The Fed has to keep rates up to keep entities buying our debt. High rates keep the dollar strong. On the other hand, big rates keep a lid on economic growth which is terrible for the incumbents during an election year. “A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”. Am I right?
Let’s dive right into it. This week, we saw a very active week in our MLS System, and it deserves a closer look.
Denver Market Watch
New Listing 1345 This is a pretty strong number. It is showing at least some sellers are getting on board. Coming Soon 196 Back On Market 293 Price Increase 114 Price Decrease 2016 This is out of control! Sellers have to get real in this market… Pending 1356 Not a bad week and keeping pace with new inventory… Withdrawn 237 Leased 0 Closed 1239 A very good week. This market is waking up! Expired 586
All indications are of a market that is vibrant and moving forward. Rates, Elections, and Wall Street be damned! Let’s look at the Total Supply of Active Listings Now.
We’ve observed the inventory numbers jump from 4,748 in January to 8,541 today, but this is a decline from the end of June which reported 8819 Active Listings. Have we turned the corner?
To get the answer to that question and more, you’ll need to come back next week, and the week after. It’s a good habit to get after.
In preparation for the final settlement between NAR, local boards, and the “consumer”, my local board voted yesterday to divest itself from ownership in our MLS system known as REColorado. Ultimately, this step will create a firewall between our local board, brokers, and consumers. It is supposed to make the playing field more “fair”. This will bring up many questions, and as we move closer to the 08/17/2024 settlement date, more will transpire. We’ll keep you posted.
“The real issue might just be the election. We’ve talked to so many homebuyers who say they’re going to wait to see what happens in this election. It is gripping the national psyche, as you may have heard.”
We’ve had many elections throughout my career. Sometimes, “my team” has won, and sometimes the “other team” wins. In all instances, I awoke the next morning and went about my business. The feeling this election year has is different. It is my prediction, the 2024 Election will bottle up customer purchasing decisions until late in the 4th quarter of 2024. Uncertainty does not lend itself to home purchase decisions. We will keep you posted.
A little history lesson. I started writing by creating blog posts about the Denver Residential Market on November 11th, 2008. It was a story about the transition in leadership at #WorldwideERC. It had been 36 years since a leadership change took place. In the last 16 years, Mobility leadership and Mobility has changed routinely and dramatically. My gratitude for being part of those early days of Employee Relocation is immense. Thank You #WorldwideERC.
So What’s Happened in the last 7 days in Denver’s SFR Market?
Market Watch New Listing (804) Still an unseasonable low number of new listings. Coming Soon (137) Back On Market (190) Price Increase (65) Price Decrease (1317) As Brokers, we just can’t get this right! Pending (846) This is a low number, but still in excess of the New Listing Count. Withdrawn (145) Leased (0) Closed (717) A low number, showing now energy in the marketplace. Expired (155)
Almost to be expected with no energy in the last week, it will be interesting to look at our next number of Total Active Listings.
The relatively small Active Inventory Growth of just 84 additional listings this week, it appears the growth from January at 4,731 Active Listings to today’s 8,735 indicates the worst is behind us for 2024.
What is the strategy to play on right here and now? Buyers are going to be lazy. They are not seeing the type of inventory they want to buy, because our sellers are sitting on the sidelines, because the inventory they want is not available, and they don’t want to give up that 3% mortgage with +/-26 years still remaining.
So, what’s the strategy? Buyers, if you have all your “ducks in a row”, this is the time to stand tall and ready with one foot in the market. Be ready to pounce, when the home you want comes on the market. The good ones are still going fast. Sellers, have a clear path to your end game. Why are you moving, where are you moving, and when do you want to be there. If Buyers and Sellers would buy into this, we would have a market everyone could enjoy.
Along the way, we will be there for you. Let’s talk, Let’s construct a plan, and let’s be bold!
Let’s get right into this morning. This week’s MLS activity looks a little different.
Market Watch New Listing (931) This is a nice break from the last several weeks. Coming Soon (124) Back On Market (184) Price Increase (65) Price Decrease (1496) We continue to not see this market very clearly. Pending (900) Not a bad week with UC, but still slow in comparison. Withdrawn (124) Leased (0) Closed (711) Another slow week. If we look at Back on Market and Pending, the result is Closed. Expired (141)
As we look at the trends in our marketplace, this week has clearly rejected the results of the last few weeks with fewer new listings and fewer closed transactions. How do Total Active Listings look?
We have only jumped 100 total active listings in the last week. This reflects a slowing in seller interest to jump into this market. On the other hand, we saw fewer buyers jump in with rates continuing to be a significant distraction.
Here’s my hypothesis for the next 100 days. Rates will drift slightly lower, but only marginally, not enough to cause any froth in the marketplace. The Supply and Demand Ratio will remain relatively stable too. Home sellers are not gamblers. They will want to see a clear vision. November 5th will offer some guidance. Buyers will continue to watch the market every day, week, and month. They will be stopping at open houses. They will be in search of the unattainable at a price below market. Lenders will have to adjust to lower demand. Real Estate Brokers will continue to press onward, because that’s what they do. The result of 2024’s market data will be less than excellent. Fewer sales will be the major departure from the trends in the last few years.
One way or another, it will be a brave new world. If you haven’t read it in a while, it is a good “circle back” book. You will get my message if you have read Future Shock, Brave New World, 1984, and/or Atlas Shrugged. If you have read all the John Steinbeck books, you will understand what’s happening. I can only pray that we look out for each other and hope for the best. Change and Changes are happening so fast, keeping up is difficult.
Let’s talk, let’s plan, let’s revel in the future coming our way. We are here for you…tc
Well, we had our 100* day. It’s official. We are in the Dog Days of Summer! Which means it is hot! Amazon Prime Day is always around this time, and do you think they plan it like this so you are staying in the A/C with nothing to do but shop?
We are at the crossroads of Supply and Demand…
Supply vs. Demand
Let’s get after it. We have clearly drifted into the Summer Malaise. Significantly more new listings than contracts and closings. I might add, not significantly out of balance, but the slow creep each week is compounding onto the Active Listing Count growing.
Market Watch New Listing (1112) A reasonable number, but more than pending/closings. Coming Soon (148) Back On Market (202) Price Increase (63) Price Decrease (1612) Now, this is becoming crazy. We can do better! Pending (823) Withdrawn (132) Leased (0) Closed (772) A low number. Does not show market strength! Expired (170)
From what we know about last week, here’s what we’ve seen on Total Active Listings.
My goodness, this market has changed from positive absorption to negative absorption in less than 6 months. The Denver Single Family Residential Market has grown from 4,731 Active Listings in January to 8,550 as we move deeper into July. This is the greatest number of Active Listings in more than 10 years. If we were to see another week like this, we would have over 9000 active listings. This is starting to get worrisome. Rates, Rates, Rates, and Rates keep rising as the Black Swan, but I believe this election year will attract more attention than the desire to own a home. Attention will be focused on what has pasted, what is present, and what the future might hold. Many residential decisions will be on hold. Heresy coming from a Realtor, but one man’s opinion can offer some value.
If you are actively in the market right now, you might benefit from more choices this jump in supply is providing. It might also allow a buyer to purchase with less competition. Finally, with less competition for mortgage dollars, we might see a favorable decline in mortgage interest rates.
This could all happen. Being BOLD in a market like this will have long-term benefits. You simply need the help of a professional. A battle-worn, experienced, and reliable realtor to be with you every step of the way.
I highly recommend Des’ree first thing every morning… “You Gotta Be”
Have you ever had this feeling? Either way of course, on the outside looking in and feeling left out, or on the outside looking in at the Ant Farm. Our goal here is to let “you in” on the action. Every day, Denver’s Residential Real Estate Market baffles and surprises. We are here to demystify and share our knowledge. So, without further adieu, let’s get right into it!
Over the last 7 days, Denver’s Market Activity has been abysmal!
Market Watch New Listing (552) Down! Coming Soon (218) Back On Market (135) Price Increase (89) Price Decrease (817) Down! Pending (736) Down! Withdrawn (124) Leased (0) Closed (525) Very Low, Down! Expired (152)
The only positive takeaway here is the fact New Listings have not crushed the Number of Closings. Maybe this will slow the growth in the number of Total Active Listings.
Let’s take a closer look at what’s happening with Total Active Listings! We are about to get another gut punch!
Here’s the short of it:
January 4,727 Active Listings; February 5,125 Active Listings, March 5,324, April 6,265, May 7,947, and now closing out June into July 2024 a count of 8,346 Total Active Listings. For those of you still following along, we have seen a 76% increase in Total Active Listings since January. This is clearly not a good thing for Sellers, but even with rates where they are, we are observing buyer activity grabbing the Golden Gooses. Listings of exceptional condition, location or numerous other intrinsic features race away, but homes left less than “Parade Ready”, backing/facing traffic/other external obsolescence are seeing multiple price reductions before that contract arrives. Buyers are smart. They want last year’s prices. Sellers do not always make the best decisions on price, and that is why we are seeing so many price reductions.
My advice in a market like this is not simple. Sellers, need to take every possible step to move their Listing to the front row where the “A” Students sit. Buyers need to stay active in the market searching for the perfect match. And, Buyers need to ask themselves, what if rates never go back down. Although we will experience a 1-3% average decline in our market between now and the end of the year, the long-term trend will clearly be toward price stability and more modest appreciation.
So, here’s my advice. If you are a seller leaving the state, now is as good a time to make your home ready for sale. If you are planning on a move up or down in the Denver Market, today is just as good as any other day to start the process. We can successfully guide you through the process.
On the other hand, if you are a Buyer, now is a GREAT time to find your neighborhood/community/location in which you want to make your new home. By waiting you risk losing appreciation only to save a point or two on your rate.
The first half is in the books. Now, the 2nd half is up in the air. Rates, Election, Supply, Demand, and whatever else this environment can throw at us. What’s your bet?
Market Watch All Property Types New Listing (1647) Another close to record week for new listings in 2024. Coming Soon (91) Back On Market (280) Price Increase (234) Price Decrease (1957) Wow, this is another record week for price reductions. Pending (1255) This is a strong week, but nothing out of the ordinary. Withdrawn (256) Leased (84) Closed (1380) Creeping up, but still behind the supply side of the market. Expired (664)
We have a plethora of choices in the All Property Type Market above. It adds roughly 50% more inventory each week, than the SFR market segment below. One could argue, the SFR market remains in a much more balanced almost seller position.
Market Watch Only Single Family Homes New Listing (969) A very understandable number of New Listings. Coming Soon (73) Back On Market (174) Price Increase (188) Price Decrease (1261) Still very high, but not as dramatic as all property types. Pending (896) Withdrawn (141) Leased (0) Closed (1021) This is right in line with expectations of a strong market. Expired (292)
What’s my point? In my history of 5 decades in this market, the ancillary property type supply and demand is a much more anticipatory group than SFRs. People need a house. In a market like this, many investors, developers, flippers, etc., exit and wait it out. They might envision too much risk. Where the most in-demand market of shelter tends to be more sustaining. So, right now, the SFR market is maintaining great ratios of Supply and Demand. Will condos, new construction, multi-family, and the rest start showing real signs of weakness? As always, only time will tell, but the early indicators are clearly in place.
To watch the numbers from this market week in and week out, and then all of a sudden to see a jump like this is surprising, to say the least. Moving up to 8,190 Active Listings has not been seen since 2014. We are going in on a wild ride folks. Get ready for the unknown…
We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April to 7,335 at the end of May, and now at the end of June at 8,190 as we move into the 2nd half. Last year at this same time, we had about 5,440 Active Listings. This is a dramatic change in a short time.
And, that is why, Dee and I are here to assist, guide, and educate you on the trends, the neighborhoods, and when it might be best for you to dip your toes into this market. Please reach out to TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com
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