10/22/2024 #Opinions

Posted on October 22, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Everybody has a correct opinion, but does everyone have a wrong opinion? During election season, we can get caught up in the ads, the rhetoric, the personalities, and, of course, the candidates. People who grew up in South Dakota will look at the world through a different lens than the people living in New York City. My personal opinion revolves around homeownership. When communities have a high percentage of homeownership, they tend to be safer, enjoy schools with higher scores, have greater household wealth, and are more involved in elections. The opposite side of the coin tells me a renter has greater mobility.

Either way, is one opinion right and the other opinion wrong? This is the reason it takes two teams to have a game, two opinions to hold court, and many reasons to distill down to an election. I could go on and on and on, but let’s look into the market over the last week or so.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1111) Not as big a jump as last week, but still moving more toward the buyer than the seller.
Coming Soon (115)
Back On Market (289)
Price Increase (97)
Price Decrease (1808) This is down a good bit from last weeks report, but still very high.
Pending (1233) Not a bad week for clearing off the inventory. Advantage seller!
Withdrawn (261) Holidays?
Leased (0)
Closed (991) I always like this number to be over 1,000. We are close, but not over.
Expired (396) Holidays?

We continue to observe a rounding at the top of SFR inventory from this chart. From last week, we were actually down by a couple hundred Active Listings over the previous week. This should flatten and decline as we close 2024. Single-family inventory drives the residential market, and this is why we watch it very closely.

Moving to another subject, if you have residential real estate plans for 2025, this is the ideal plan to take an hour, sit down with us and discuss the formation of a plan. The new year will be upon us very quickly, and the more definitive your plan, the more likely it will unfold positively. After many years in the business, this market is all about timing, timing, timing.

We’ll see you soon! TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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10/15/2024 #TheModernEra 1945-Today

Posted on October 15, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Did you know? Yes, we are still in The Modern Era, however, watching the evening news, it seems like we are “cavemen and women” with electricity. I follow a Handle on X known as @DoBetterDenver. It is very informative. If you are curious about behind-the-scenes in Denver, it is for you!

This week in our Denver Metro MLS Area of Single Family Homes looks like this,

Denver Market Watch – Last 7 Days
New Listing (1351) This is a typical week, not too high, but not low either.
Coming Soon (115)
Back On Market (241)
Price Increase (145)
Price Decrease (2225) Wow, this is a huge number of price reductions!
Pending (1096) This is an average week. With all the new listings and all the price reductions, I would have expected more, but it was a three day weekend.
Withdrawn (182)
Leased (0)
Closed (876) This is below average. Below, you will see and increase in total Active Listings.
Expired (401)

So, what were the total number of Active Listings this week?

Let me give you some perspective in October from years past to now. 10/20 – 3,253 Active Listings. 10/21 – 3,846 and 10/22 – 7,381 and 10/23 – 7,190 and finally, 10/24 – 9,123. Should you be worried. If you are a seller, you missed the peak opportunity with the least competition and the lowest interest rates. If you are a buyer, you are in the best market with the most choice in the last 5 years. Granted, rates are higher, prices are higher, and the cost of ownership reflects this.

Taking all this into consideration, every month, we list properties for sale, and every month, buyers come along and buy them. The truth of the matter is simple. Every buyer and every seller have unique and personal wants and needs. This makes a market, and we have experienced even in the worst of our markets, Single Family Residential Properties have always had a market, Higher, Lower, and Staying the same, the Market will survive us all…

In the meantime, we know the world of residential ownership is complicated. Whether you are on the Sell Side or the Buy Side, you might need or want a little help. We are here for you. We’re here for you at TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com.

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10/01/2024 #DenverMarketWatch #HomeOwnership

Posted on October 1, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

I will write about the Denver Market today and follow up with Homeownership. Both subjects deserve our attention this morning.

Over the last week, the numbers have looked like this.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1306) More than last week, but nothing to be fearful over.
Coming Soon (161)
Back On Market (307)
Price Increase (135)
Price Decrease (2060) The market is smart. It seeks value. This has required sellers to be realistic.
Pending (1262) Not a bad number, but it is barely keeping up with New Listings.
Withdrawn (200)
Leased (0)
Closed (1240) Well better than last week reflecting the nuisance of lower rates!
Expired (705) This could be a seasonal move here. “Let’s just wait till…”, as so often happens.

Once again, the long story short, the market is telling us it is shifting away from a Sellers’ market to a more balanced market with signs of supply issues in some of our third tear markets where New Home Builder Inventory is pervasive. Primary market inventory is in short supply and, when available, is being absorbed quickly. As we’ve seen many times in the past, bifurcated markets often result during a period of slow change. This trend will continue. Builders have a hold in our perimeter markets, they can control rates, price and inventory with great alactrity compared to an individual resale homeowner in the same market.

Here’s what’s happened to Total Active Listings.

As in past years, we are seeing the seasonal rounding indicating we have most likely seen the top of the supply level for 2024 now down almost 300 active listings from last week. I’m going to take this as a positive sign for the Denver Market.

I have lived in 7 homes I’ve owned. Of those 7, Dee and I have lived in 3 we’ve owned together. Homeownership should be a university course. So much is learned from it. I can’t think of anything as an adult that will create a path toward maturity any quicker than homeownership. Paying bills, budgeting, becoming a part of the community, city, state, and, if your community has one, the HOA.

Homeownership creates secure families, community attachment, and “skin in the game.” Neighborhoods with the highest percentages of non-owner occupants have the most turnover, lower-performing schools, a greater propensity for crime, and a visible lack of exterior maintenance and repair.

Conversely, neighborhoods with a high percentage of owner-occupancy enjoy the opposite. Low turnover, high-performing schools, lower crime, higher voter turnout, and a high degree of pride of ownership. Surprisingly or not, retail services, employment centers and recreational opportunities tend to be nearby as well maintained. Infact, during our Real Estate Depresion in Denver during the 1980s, we found communities with a neighborhood elementary school, HOA Amenities, open space, nearby shopping and employment centers had the lowest level of price depreciation. Is it any wonder how important Homeownership is?

The end of this story is so telling. The last home Dee and I bought together is the home where I am writing this post today. After 32 years, we love our house and our community. the nearby recreation, employment centers, shopping, and schools. We worked with the builder and made several significant changes. As a result, it still suits us to a T-Pa if you catch my drift.

We’d love to hear your experiences. We are homeownership advocates. Let’s make your homeownership a reality.

Let’s talk soon TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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09/24/2024 #BestoftheBest #Centennial

Posted on September 24, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Denver,

Every month, I get a newsletter from the City of Centennial, where I live. This month, the newsletter declares, “We are the best of the best.” We were incorporated from Arapahoe County to Centennial on or about the year 2000. Centennial has no debt. It pays its bills promptly. It has several smaller “town centers” and an award-winning Center Park. Emergency Response has been outsourced. Public Works has been outsourced. Most parks and recreation has been outsourced. I’m here to tell you, Privatization works and saves money. This has been going on for 25 years now. It is successful, and it makes me proud. I’ve served on the Senior Commision, the Election Commission, and hope one day to serve on others. When one is proud of something, it is easy to get involved and hopefully even make it better. All I can say is get involved in your community. Please get involved,

On another note, Dee and I welcomed our 5th grandchild into the family last week. Louie James and Momma all doing very well. WE have been blessed again!

Denver’s Weekly Market Watch

New Listing
1421 Less than last week and the week before; seasonal?
Coming Soon
160
Back On Market
307
Price Increase
121
Price Decrease
2084 This is still too high. Buyers are getting very critical.
Pending
1285 This is a pretty good week. Rates have allowed a few buyers to jump in!
Withdrawn
197
Leased
0
Closed
927 This is not a great week. Closings are not keeping up with new listings.
Expired
314

Well, another week has gone by. Although we continue to see fewer closings than I would like to see, if we can stay close to the 1,000/week rate, I believe after the first of the year, we will see a spring market like we’ve lived before.

Total Active Listings 09/2024

We are experiencing an expansion of our market. From early in the year, with slightly more than 4,000 active listings, to September, we now have 9,027 Active Listings. If this growth were to continue for another year, we would be in a market of oversupply. I doubt this will happen. It is my belief as soon as the Election is behind us, we will again work toward a seller bias in the marketplace.

I am not predicting or forecasting a market collapse in any way, shape, or form. I am anticipating an unusual seasonal increase in supply through the election. We see potential buyers and sellers on both sides of the political spectrum in a “wait-and-see mode.”

Just think if our Federal Government handled their affairs like Centennial? Is it possible to deal with 330,000,000 like we deal with 129,000 people here? I believe, it at least gives one pause for thought.

We’ll be back next week with more ideas and thoughts. In the meantime, if you are ever questioning your path of homeownership, please give us a call, text, email or smoke signal.

TheCryerTeam@kentwood.com

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09/17/2024 #HarvestMoon

Posted on September 17, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

The moon last night was almost like a sunrise. It lit everything up even before it was above the trees!

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1391) Well back from last week. Is this seasonal already?
Coming Soon (200)
Back On Market (274)
Price Increase (89)
Price Decrease (1986) Still not getting it right from the start!
Pending (1246) Not a bad week, but nothing spectacular here.
Withdrawn (185)
Leased (0)
Closed (944) This 900 +/- number seems to be repeating itself week after week.
Expired (323)

Over the last 7 days, we have not had a significant change from the previous few weeks except, the growth of New Listings is stabilizing as opposed to increasing in great numbers each week as we saw earlier in the year. This is a good sign as we drift into a pre-fall season. So, no one should be singing, “Henny Penny the Sky is Falling”.

It is a similar story for Total Active Listings, we are consistently staying under 9K. Consistent numbers are a good thing in a market facing new headwinds almost every week. Fortunately, we had a rate decline this week. Buyers rushed in to help clear some new inventory. I’d like the Fed to announce at least a .25 to a .50 rate decline. Wouldn’t you?

We’ll see you next week with a Hunter’s Moon… TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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Testimonial Tuesday

Posted on September 10, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer
Thank You!

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09/10/2024 #60Days #Election2024

Posted on September 10, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Everyone,

Below you will find the August Infographic.

Below you will find my quick chart on the last 7 days in Denver.

Denver Metro Market Watch

New Listing
1500 This is noticeably higher from recent weeks.
Coming Soon
173
Back On Market
319
Price Increase
155
Price Decrease
2098 This is the highest number of weekly Price Reductions I’ve seen! It’s tough out there.
Pending
1355 Not a bad week, but certainly not keeping up with the New Listings.
Withdrawn
202
Leased
0
Closed
979 In line with recent weeks, but with the dip in rates, I would have expected more.
Expired
308

What is this telling us? The short of it is, supply is growing an demand remains level. This is not healthy in the long term.

Below, you will see the number of Active Listings available now.

We are seeing an increase in supply over May’s Report of 8,154, but a decline over June which was 8,976, and a decline over July which was 9,084 to a current level of 8,735 in late August. We now have definitive data telling us “the sky is not falling”. We will see a slow value erosion in the 1-2% range through the end of 2024. 2024 With lower rates should see this turn around to a 1-2% increase in Q1-2024.

With all this said, the waters are uncertain in the short term. Don’t change that channel, we will be back again next week sharing, caring, and preparing another MyTownCryer Newsletter just for you.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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08/27/2024 #TheElection

Posted on August 27, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Discussing Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness with a list of clients over the last few days, without exception, #TheElection was the #1 factor affecting their home purchase decision. “If this person gets elected, I will spend less, if this person gets elected, I might spend more.” The conundrum wrapped in a riddle surrounded by an enigma will be with us for at least the next 70 days, and then the fallout will carry over. The cost of freedom is not inexpensive!

I was traveling last week. I conversed with participants from 23 states. Overall, it’s a good life. Let’s get right into the Denver Metro Market update.

Please look at the chart below to get an inference into what’s been happening for the last 7 days.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1317) This is a solid week. Good supply numbers for buyers.
Coming Soon (97)
Back On Market (265)
Price Increase (316)
Price Decrease (1803) This is a critical sign. Brokers are not anticipating their listing’s potential.
Pending (1267) Not a bad week, but nothing here to skew the market trend.
Withdrawn (206)
Leased (0)
Closed (1014) Better than past weeks, and a sign of life here. I like it!
Expired (313)

On a grander scale, this is nothing inflammatory here. Solid numbers albeit nothing earth-shaking, but something to build on as we move into the fall season with an election on our backs.

Let’s turn the tables just a little bit and see what the Total Number of Active Listings has been doing.

After a slight pause in July, we have returned to a slowly increasing level of Active Listings. Although just a few hundred each week, at the end of August, we have twice as many Active Listings on the market today than in January 2024. Troubling yes, and burdensome, but this is nowhere near the numbers from the Housing Bubble of 2008-2012. We will see sold price statistics fall by 1 or 2% by years end. Should we gain access to interest rates under 6%, prices will stabilize, and if it nears 5% for fixed rates, we will see prices increase to some degree. I digress, the public sentiment coming out of the other side of the election will be the most impactful for the rest of 2024.

We are out there every day, gauging the market’s strengths and weaknesses. Lean in on us, get our scoop, and gain strength in the marketplace from the knowledge we can’t wait to share. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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08/13/2024 #DenverHistory #RailRoads #Leadership

Posted on August 13, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

The construction of the rail line linking Cheyenne and Denver was widely credited at the time for reviving the city of Denver, which had been founded at the time of the Colorado Gold Rush and incorporated on November 7, 1861. The decision to build the transcontinental railroad to the north had left the fledgling city stranded from the major transportation routes. Many at the time expected that Cheyenne would blossom into the major population center of the region. As a result, Thomas Durant, vice president of the Union Pacific, pronounced Denver “too dead to bury.” Colorado Territorial Governor John Evans declared that “Colorado without railroads is comparatively worthless.”

As a result, Evans, together with other local business leaders, including David Moffat, William Byers (founder of the Rocky Mountain News), Joseph E. Bates, Bela M. Hughes, Walter Cheesman and Luther Kountze partnered with East Coast investors to form a railroad company that would link the Denver City and to a lesser degree the Territory of Colorado with the national rail network. The company was incorporated in the Territory of Colorado on November 19, 1867 as the “Denver Pacific Railway and Telegraph Company.” A sense of urgency existed for this Denver based corporation, due to the formation of a rival, the Colorado, Clear Creek and Pacific Railway (later the Colorado Central), by W.A.H. Loveland and citizens of nearby Golden, with the intention of linking that city directly with Cheyenne and making Golden the natural hub of the territory.

Without these forward-thinking business leaders, Denver may have been left to rust on the high prairie. I always find it interesting how one key decision changes the historical paradigm forever.

Let’s look at this week’s numbers.

Market Watch
New Listing (1289) A good week, not a great week. Sellers still waiting to become part of the market.
Coming Soon (146)
Back On Market (291) WOW! This is a big number. Deals are falling at a 25% rate.
Price Increase (111)
Price Decrease (2283) Still too many!
Pending (1237) An average week for this season.
Withdrawn (214)
Leased (0)
Closed (934) Not keeping up with Total Active Listings. Supply increasing again?
Expired (295)

Now, let’s look at the total supply of Active Listings.

We’ve observed the inventory numbers jump from 4,748 in January to 8,694 today, but this is a decline from the end of June which reported 8819 Active Listings, but it is a bump from last week of about 170 New Active Listings.

Just as Denver’s Founding Fathers, made plans for a RailRoad Spur, 24-30 years ago, we had another group of leaders beating their drums for a NEW AIRPORT. An international airport with immense size and capabilities resulted. Denver International Airport, which most people don’t realize, is the 3rd busiest US Airport, and the 6th busiest worldwide. Denver is on the map!

Being a major transportation hub, it created its dominance as a distribution center and the economic center for the Rocky Mountain Region. Does this cement Denver’s place for the next 150 years? If history is prone to repeat itself, I would say so.

Reach out and we’ll give you the rundown on all the nuances of Denver History and its surrounding confines.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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08/06/2024 #Summer #Election #Rates #WallStreet

Posted on August 6, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

When I can’t think of a topic, I throw a bunch of ideas on the Subject Line and wait to see what sticks. Today, it looks like everything sticking.

#Summer is not over just because schools are opening. You can still go to the pool, etc. Personally, I have always believed September offers one of the best months in Colorado, and somehow, it was hijacked by public schools systems across the state. I do not like it one little bit!

#Election2024 is going to go down as one of the most disruptive in our history. It is already way out of the normal bounds of election protocol, but there will be more! I promise. Put your tray tables in their upright position.

#Rates, this is the first moment this year for me I have felt rates might ease a bit before the election. With the gyrations on #WallStreet, a huge portion of the population on fixed income (And loving every minute of this added income), and home buyers/sellers putting off their buy/sell decisions, we might actually see a window of opportunity in the next few months. The Fed has to keep rates up to keep entities buying our debt. High rates keep the dollar strong. On the other hand, big rates keep a lid on economic growth which is terrible for the incumbents during an election year. “A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”. Am I right?

Let’s dive right into it. This week, we saw a very active week in our MLS System, and it deserves a closer look.

Denver Market Watch

New Listing
1345 This is a pretty strong number. It is showing at least some sellers are getting on board.
Coming Soon
196
Back On Market
293
Price Increase
114
Price Decrease
2016 This is out of control! Sellers have to get real in this market…
Pending
1356 Not a bad week and keeping pace with new inventory…
Withdrawn
237
Leased
0
Closed
1239 A very good week. This market is waking up!
Expired
586

All indications are of a market that is vibrant and moving forward. Rates, Elections, and Wall Street be damned! Let’s look at the Total Supply of Active Listings Now.

We’ve observed the inventory numbers jump from 4,748 in January to 8,541 today, but this is a decline from the end of June which reported 8819 Active Listings. Have we turned the corner?

To get the answer to that question and more, you’ll need to come back next week, and the week after. It’s a good habit to get after.

In the meantime, give us a shout. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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