09/19/2023 #Agreement #Disagrement #Resolution

Recently, I was at a meeting, and I engaged in conversation with a gentleman from New York. Almost without introductions, he announced, “I’m a liberal from New York”. I asked him, “what does that mean?” He ummed and ahed, so I asked him, “Does that mean you would like to live in safe neighborhood? Would you also like ‘good schools’ supporting those home values? And, would you like abundant, accessible employment within a reasonable commute?” His answers to all three of these questions was the same. “I want all three!” Then I said, “Why do you label yourself as you do?”

He said, “I guess it is just something my generation grew up with, and I carried it on”. Long story short, there is much more #Agreement between us than there is #Disagreement. If you have been following me, you know #Homeownership is what binds us in #Resolution. Everyone wants a safe place to rest their respective heads, Everyone wants support for their home values with schools of a certain quality, and Everyone wants employment nearby.

Over the next year, 13 months to be exact, there will be an intense media burrage trying to divide us. #Homeownership is the key to good neighborhoods, good schools and jobs nearby. Communities with strong #homeownership have lower crime, more voters and stronger schools. So instead of buying into the divisive rhetoric, support #homeownership. Support the mortgage interest deduction, support first time homeownership pathways of down payment assistance. Discourage Wall Street’s overreach into our residential markets sweeping inventory out of reach.

I guarantee if we were able to move the gauge of owner occupancy from 60-65% to 70-75%, so many things negatively affecting some of our communities would turn toward the positive. Strong communities, safe communities, communities with quality schools and communities supporting job growth are safe are communities with a high owner occupancy. This is in our census data. It is real. We all want a secure investment in our homes. It’s not a #Red or #Blue issue, its good public policy. Get to know your candidates on both sides of the isle. Support the candidate supporting all aspects of #Homeownership. Our world will be a better place for it.

Now, let’s see what the Denver Residential Market Watch did over the last 7 days. These numbers only represent Single Family Residences.

Market Watch

New Listing
1247 This is another strong week for New Listings!
Coming Soon
171
Back On Market
279
Price Increase
500
Price Decrease
1570
Pending
1036 This is only average. This looks like a continuation from last week.
Withdrawn
205
Leased
83
Closed
966 Although a recessive number from earlier weeks, this clearly not an indication of a failing market.
Expired
222

From the above we clearly have an indication of growing supply and slowing declining demand. Now, let’s take a look at Total Supply of Active Listings over the last 10 years.

Although, we are witnessing the typical “rounding off” of the number of Active Listings, we still have a month or more before we can say 2023 is in line with years past. WE still look much better than Pre-Covid years, and 2021 and 2022 are identifying themselves as market anomalies. I could easily report, “Nothing to see here”, but something is going on, but we will have to wait to confirm it.

Please follow along and share with your friends, family, associates, Aunts and Uncles. Thank You…tc

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09/12/2023 #Community #Homeownership #WallStreet

This week continues my epiphany of this market. As we approach or even march into the dystopianism of urban life in many of our large metropolitan cities, I will harp on what I’ve been writing about for more than a dozen years.

I will start with #Community. I believe every single US Citizen desires Community. The wealthy man buys a Porsche and is instantly part of an elite community. A wealthy woman travels to Tuscany; same thing. Country clubs? Being part of something greater than themselves comes with the territory. The less affluent might become a part of a sewing club, a book club, volunteering at the food bank, being part of a faith or religion, or even part of a Homeowners Association. People naturally want to be a part of a community. This is why Homeownership is so, so, so, very important. It gives people Something to do, Something to love, and Something to hope for. It’s part of the American Fabric of Life.

The last part of my epiphany conversation continues to be about #WallStreet. If you follow me you know, Blackstone, Vanguard, StateStreet and more have a highly developed strategy of acquiring Single Family and Multifamily residences and becoming the world’s largest landlords. This strategy will effectively eliminate entry level residences from the first time buyer/homeowner. Historically, the entry level home has been the cornerstone of American Life. What will happen now?

Anyway, this week, Denver’s Single Family Residential Market looked like this over the last 7 days.

Market Watch

New Listings
1540 This number is huge! The largest number of 2023!
Coming Soon
174
Back On Market
294
Price Increase
190
Price Decrease
1560 This number just keeps growing. We’ve clearly moved past the price peak.
Pending
1105 A typical week, but not competitive with the above number of new listings.
Withdrawn
211
Leased
64
Closed
932 This is starting to be a seasonal trend not keeping up with supply!
Expired
234

As seen above, there are some bellwether number changes this week. Let’s see where we are going in this market. We could argue, this is great time to be a buyer; choice and low competition.

As I wrote above, we have reached our peak and started to witness average price decline. So, now let’s see how inventory is impacting this.

We have now seen the affects in Denver of High Interest Rates. There has been 7 consecutive months of slow and steady inventory growth. Still below years past, but nonetheless, inventory is growing, but the number of sales has remained stable or declined too.

This is the watershed newsletter. Is the beginning of wholesale price declines and the loss of value in this market? Keep in mind, we sill only have slightly more than 6,000 Active Listings in an 11 county metropolitan area of 3.25M. That is clearly NOT oversupply, but it is the first step?

With all of this, please be aware, this is not armageddon. If rates were to move toward 5%, this would change overnight. And, the current market continues to run, but just not as fast as 18 months ago. Let’s keep a close eye on this. I will continue to explore these trends everyweek, and keep you on track with the Denver SFR market. Please, stay tuned and tell your friends, family, aunts and uncles. We’ll be there for your homeownership journey!

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09/09/2023 #Rates #Forecast

Mortgage Rate Forecast
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09/05/2023 #PrimeTime #Optimism #DifferentThisTime

By now, everyone on Earth following college football understands that we are now living in #PrimeTime. I root for 5 college teams: Alabama, Oklahoma, Colorado, Duke, and Notre Dame, and this week, I had a clean sweep, including Colorado, which went 1-11 last season. Coach “Prime” has sold more cowboy hats in the last week than anyone in the history of cowboy hats! Boulder is once again alive with football fans.

As I sit on my front porch composing this post this morning, I’m reminded why I live in Colorado, AND, IMHO, it is a good life! An image is worth a thousand words!

#Optimism is subjective. One person’s level of optimism is another’s bane of existence, and vice versa, right? Anyway, I follow about 8 news aggregators, and 4 of those religiously. When one is down, another is up. With all these crazy events going on, I can tell you a few things. WE are more alike than different. This truth will never fade. This does not mean we won’t have wars, economic events, and reshuffling, or the “great reset,” as is so often employed to describe our future. This is why #Homeownership is so very important. Societies, countries, and individuals vested in homeownership have superior outcomes. It is a fact.

I have wrestled with this last thought a number of times over the last few years. Will it be different this time? I’m torn. From all the sources I follow, I can argue Armageddon, and I can argue for an extremely positive future. Compromise will have to be employed, but this may even speed these #differentthistime times. Let’s jump right into the last week in Denver MLS System.

Market Watch

New Listing: 975 new listings. The count is dropping just as I have been predicting.

Coming Soon: 248. This is way up over last week, but not enough to make the market move.

Back On Market: 263.

Price Increase: 388.

Price Decrease: 1131. This continues to be the clearest sign that we are seeing a market shift.

Pending: 1077. A solid week. It bodes well for the inventory trend when contracts are more prevalent than new listings.

Withdrawn: 239.

Leased: 72.

Closed: 1112. Another solid week. Buyers and sellers continue to find their way to the closing table!

Expired: 523. Now this number is up substantially. Sellers are giving up. Move-up sellers are locked between their perception of value, current interest rates, and razor-thin inventory.

How does all this look on an Active Listing Graph?

With only 5,859 active listings in the 11-county Greater Denver Metropolitan Area, it is readily apparent that our supply is way down from last year and is one of the lowest in many years. Interest rates have not forced this market into oversupply, and we could argue that it resides in a shortage.

Let’s follow this closely. As we move into the fall and winter months, it will be interesting to report back to you. In the meantime, we are here to interpret this market for you every day. We continue to bring the most relevant inventory to our buyers’ attention and the most current market trends to our sellers. Lean on us. We will be there for you every step of the way… tc

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08/29/2023 #TacoTuesday #TattooTuesday #TestimonialTuesday #DenverMarketWatch

Good Morning to Everyone,

We have a lot ot discuss this morning, so lets get started. First of all, #TacoTuesday! I recently had the Monterey Fish Tacos at Sierra’s in Lone Tree. When presented properly, I think fish tacos are my favorite. Having grown up with seafood, something about fish tacos taking the best from the sea and combining it with the best of the Southwest, it just strikes a chord.

As for #TattoTuesday, I have to tell you, I’m all for personal expression. Tattoos are medium of expression exhibited worldwide. When I was a kid, my father, a Navy guy, told me tattoos were not for “Officers”. What did that even mean? I was probably 10. Anyway, I’d like your comment on this. I see tattoos celebrating people, events, things and allegiances, but I rarely if ever see tattoos of places. Show me please, a tattoo of Cape Code, Key West or the Chesapeake Bay Bridge. It’s in your arm now.

We routinely receive testimonials from our clients making our hearts swoon, and this is one of them!

“The sale of our Arvada home was a very chaotic time. My wife and I were trying to get everything packed, prepare the home for sale, find a new house in CA, and travel for our jobs. Dee and Tom were very helpful and patient as we moved through the process. They kept track of all the needed documents and kept us on schedule to sign all the documents necessary. They know the business very well and provided excellent advice when there were important decisions to be made. They were very calm during a crazy time and it helped us get through the the entire process. They were able to assist in expediting the sale as the buyers wanted to move quickly. They were able to provide very personal attention and that was greatly appreciated.”

What a great couple to assist. Moving from Colorado to California is not easy!

Finally, what about the #DenverMarketWatch? In the last 7 days, it has looked like this:

New Listing
1189 Pretty much the same as last week’s news. Nothing to write home about.
Coming Soon
102 This is way down. Nothing to anticipate here.
Back On Market
280
Price Increase
429
Price Decrease
1286 About normal maybe down a little.
Pending
1118 Not a bad week, but nothing to brag about.
Withdrawn
233
Leased
67
Closed
1078 Average, Average, Average!
Expired
192

With not much change here, we are marching into the realization that #MortgageInterestRates are clearly taking their toll on Buyers and Sellers. In just 60 days, we will officially begin an #ElectionYear. As we all know, #ElectionYears always create havoc on the world. I’m going to predict right now, it will be all about promises and unfulfilled promises. Do you think I have this one right?

Last, but not least, Get ready to get out there, because it will look like this in just a few weeks!

So long for this week, and safe travels…tc

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08/24/2023 #www.econ70.com #DenverMarketWatch

This is Elliot’s work from last nights blog post. His market impression is almost 100% in sync with our Denver Market Watch. Enjoy!

#HotHouses

While house prices declined from $410,200 in 6/23 to $406,700 in 7/23, don’t be fooled, that’s the highest July price ever and is up from $403,800 in 7/22. Similarly, while inventory ticked up from 1.08 months in 6/23 to 1.11 months in 7/23, it’s again the lowest July level ever and well below the 1.31 months of supply in 7/22. After accounting for seasonality, the housing market is profoundly tight.

Econ70 – Home of GraphsandLaughs
http://www.econ70.com
Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
elliot@graphsandlaughs.net
(202) 306 2731

You should be following Elliot’s work…tc

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08/22/2023 #TestimonialTuesday #TacoTuesday #TallyTuesday

Team Cryer is the best!!! We’re so appreciative of their experience and expertise. This was our second home purchase with them. They were so attentive to details, strategic throughout the entire process from preparing to start looking at houses, finding the best lender for us, being readily available to go to house showings, and wisely guiding us through the purchase of our new home. Can’t recommend them enough! Thanks Tom and Dee!

Do you have certain menu items on certain days of the week? How about a quick #TacoTuesday recipe? Pick and choose and you’ll have a great time. Did anyone say Margaritas?

Quick Taco Ingredients!

  1. Ground Beef Taco Meat
  2. Carne Asada
  3. Pico de Gallo
  4. Salsa Verde
  5. Refried Black Beans
  6. Roasted Peppers And Onions
  7. Roasted Salsa Roja
  8. Instant Pot Chipotle Barbacoa Beef
  9. Taco Bell Creamy Baja Sauce
  10. Sauteed Onions
  11. Hatch Chili Guacamole
  12. Instant Pot Cilantro Lime Rice
  13. Taco Bell Creamy Avocado Ranch Sauce
  14. Grilled Corn
  15. Turkey Carnitas

You are on your own now!

OK, let’s Tally up the last 7 days in Denver’s Single Family Market. Anything new?

#DenverMarketWatch

New Listing
1222 Not a bad week, buyers are getting more opportunities here.
Coming Soon
173 This has dropped off by as much as 100.
Back On Market
270
Price Increase
186
Price Decrease
1489 This keeps on growing each week.
Pending
1203 Not a bad week, but certainly not a record breaker.
Withdrawn
198
Leased
77
Closed
1068 Once again, not a bad week. Buyers and Sellers still finding their way to the closing table!
Expired
212 Sellers just giving up. Or, not willing to sell at a price.

#AllRightAllRightAllRight Let’s move on to the bigger picture of the Active Listing Trends over the last 10 years in Denver Metro.

As you can see above, The growth in the number of Active Listings has “rounded off” not unlike years past. I might go as far as saying we have reached our peak for 2023. If this is the case, this shortage of inventory will make 2023 look week, but really it is the lack of inventory and rates holding it back.

So, another week has come and gone. We continue to move forward with Buyers and Sellers. Keep in mind, we always have something new coming on the market, SO, keep in touch. Additionally, we always have Buyers in the wings who are credit approved and ready to make the buy decision.

As always, we are there for you every step of the way. #HomeownershipIsImportant

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08/16/2023 #Homelessness #Hobo #TheOtherSideoftheTracks

Many years ago, I was a young high school kid with a Sociology Class Project due. Like kids in 2023, 2 of my buddies shared the same class and three heads are better than one, right?

Anyway, we had a Super8 Camera and a handheld recording devise. With little to know thought, we agreed we would interview the “Hobos” down by the tracks. Sounds good doesn’t it?

Before we knew it, we had gathered our gear, parked and began our mission. Over the next day and a half we figured out how to find, interview, record and film the events. Keep in mind, we had no idea if anyone would even talk to us. But, they did, and as Paul Harvey would say, “and, this is the rest of the story”.

We could only find men ‘down on there luck’. Over our day and a half, we found no female “Hobos”. For some context here, as a country, we were toward the end of US involvement in the Vietnam War, the three of us were 17, we were rolling in my mom’s car, and we were clueless!

Hobos on the Tracks

As we stumbled around the railroad yard in Tulsa, OK, we literally had responses like, “What are you kids doing down here” to “Do you have any money for us” to “You better watch yourselves ‘round here”. We literally didn’t know any better. One of us did play on the football team.

As we would start up conversations, we would try to sync imaging with sound as best we could. We would ask questions like, “What’s up”?, and “How’s it going?”, and surprisingly, we had conversations lasting longer than we cared for, but remember, we were clueless!

Jumping ahead, when we arrived back at the ‘office’, we had the hardest part in front of us. “How do we edit the mishmash of film and tape into a story. This was early in the 1970s and we had lots of folk music and war cries to choose, we had voices to edit in, and we had the most important thing, Super8 film of our events from a day and a half of cluelessly wondering around where we had no business being. The naivety of youth was our guardian Angel!

After some window of time, we had pulled together which to us seemed to be a reasonable story of our time on the tracks. We watched through it a couple more times, presented to one or more of our parents, and then, carried it back to our Sociology Class for the reveal…

Well, I’m here to tell you, our story of men back from war, men who had lost everything, men seriously diluted with alcohol and men living life on the rails, struck a cord. When the lights came on in our class room, our teacher asked us to stay and play it for his next class. (He would square up with our other teachers.)

After the positive and deeply moving response, the 3 of us gathered our things and walked home together. We hadn’t put a man on the moon, but we took responsibility, created a plan, carried out the plan, presented our findings and received an ‘A’ for our efforts. It was a great time for us!

What we learned was probably far more meaningful, and it is as true today as it was 50 years ago. Some people, want to live unconventionally, with freedom of movement, and no responsibly. Back then as opposed to now is the scale and the impact of today’s homeless. Blame it on public handouts, ease of access to drugs, or a thousand other stories. The more things change, the more things stay the same…

Everyone has a story to tell, we just have to listen.

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08/15/2023 #BacktoSchool #AugustMarket #CNN/FOX

That’s right, can you believe it? #BacktoSchool already! Seems like summer weather is finally here, and kids are off to school. When I attended the University of Denver, I loved the “trimester” system where we didn’t start ’till mid september!

The #AugustMarket? Somethings you’ll never hear or read… When August rolls around we will always face the prospect of millions of kids heading off to school. Tuition has to be paid in one form or another. Stocks will be sold, credit cards will be employed, savings will be tapped and loans will be grabbed; it’s a time when most families have take a deep breath and say, “We’ll get through this!” How impactful do you think this is on markets? I’d love to read your comments.

Almost every morning, I open my #CNN App and my #FOX App on my trusty phone to get a sense. Without fail, the two news producers lead with different stories, until today. #Trump was in big letters everywhere. Is this impactful? I’d love to read your comments, but I believe this to be a diversion. Big News always hides the little things that slip through. “Keep your eyes on the road and your hands upon the wheel….”

This week, Denver’s MLS looks something like this…

Market Watch

New Listing
1236 This is a solid week for new listings!
Coming Soon
167 This is lower than weeks past.
Back On Market
284
Price Increase
173
Price Decrease
1377 We just can’t seem to get it right on the first try.
Pending
1081 This is average at best. Is it August malaise or mayonnaise?
201
Leased
87
Closed
976 Now this is the first week we’ve dropped below 1,000 in quite some weeks?????
Expired
198

How are we fairing on Active Listings compared to weeks past?

No big changes here, and the market is creating it’s typical “flat top” just like years past. I’m anticipating more of the same throughout the month of August (Everyone is paying those tuition bills)…

Anyway, today, I’m leaving you with a peek into our summer, enjoy!

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08/08/2023 #PalisadePeaches #CoolSummerNights

Over the last 10 years, this has been the trend of active listings. Coming off the financial crash of 2008, we had to clear a lot of inventory. We cleared it and more. We finished July with 5,631 Active Single Family Homes. June was 5,858, May 5,198 and April 4,719. August and September should feed into this trend with slow absorption with little or no growth in inventory.

In the last week, we’ve seen a mantra of “Nothing to see here, move along”, as the pattern is so similar to weeks past.

New Listing
1271 Nothing to see here…
Coming Soon
179
Back On Market
297
Price Increase
107
Price Decrease
1381 Still too many adjustments have been made here.
Pending
1196 A good week, but not a great week.
Withdrawn
225
Leased
74
Closed
1092 Buyers and sellers continue to find there way to the closing table.
Expired
387 Sellers giving up in larger numbers???

Denver can’t be expected to react like other cities in the US. We are 500 miles from nowhere. In any direction, we don’t have a lot to influence our local economy. This is why real estate markets are local.

What’s all this have to do with peaches and cool summer nights? Well, Palisade Peaches have arrived, and cool summer nights are back! It’s a good life.

We had a great experience working with the Cryer team! Dee kept in communication often and kept the process moving, often working outside of business hours to do so. We felt like she was always available to help. She gave helpful advice along the way and truly made the stressful experience of buying a home manageable. We would absolutely recommend the Cryer team!

Yes, it is #TestimonialTuesday…

We’re here for you…tc

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