10/10/2023 #Legal #Illegal #GrayArea

Posted on October 10, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

When one spends a week in the desert and it rains, it’s a good life. Also, time in the desert allows one to think from a different point of view. One of the things affecting the #OffPavement participants is government. One of the things affecting #Homeowners is government. And of course, the gray area of #TrailClosures and #ApplianceMandates is asking for forgiveness rather than foregoing. I hope this makes sense; remember, I’ve been spending time in the desert where things happen in #GeologicTime.

As we go about our daily lives, #Shelter, #Transportation, and #Sustenance day in and day out, I believe we begin to lose perspective. Let’s face it, in some fashion, we all work for the man! As we take back our perspective through travel, exercise or even a Zac Brown Concert down the street, #TheGreatThomasa’s little head has become pretty darn good at identifying the “conspiracy”.

Long story short, as we work toward reporting an accurate picture of the Denver Residential Market, we have absolutely no control over the external forces. Rates, War, Markets, People, Location and a million other factors not identified here. So, let’s jump into it and put the last two weeks into perspective. #DenverMarketWatch

Market Watch

New Listing
1226 This is a good late season number. Buyers getting more and new choices!
Coming Soon
123 Very low, next week looks bleak for New Listings!
Back On Market
283 Coming and going, a lot of inspection items not being resolved.
Price Increase
152
Price Decrease
1604 WOW, this number is HUGE! Clearly seasonal softening of the market.
Pending
966 Not a great week, but let’s follow this one very closely…
Withdrawn
244 Sellers giving up. We will see more of this as we move closer to Thanksgiving.
Leased
60
Closed
788 This is really weak. This number has been running at 1,000 or more. WE will watch this.
Expired
269 Giving up, similar to Withdrawn added together is really Market Threatening!

So, Seasonal Softening is clearly apparent, Now, let’s take a look at Total Active Listings this month.

With 7,838 Active Listings one year ago, and only 6,513 Active Listings today, we are not in an area of potential market collapse, but we are approaching a tipping point from a Sellers’ Market and at least a balance. This would tend to suggest a buyers market is just around the corner. Right? Not sure, it will depend on the attitude of rates.

In closing, it was very difficult to get my father to talk about his time of war in the Pacific. He would simply say, “There is nothing good about war.” Yesterday, I read this, “The only winner in war is the defense industry.” It does not diminish what my father professed, it is simply the realization, businesses and people often prophet from misfortune of war.

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10/03/2023 #Moab #LandRovers #TheWest #LRNR2023

Posted on October 3, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

The first week in the last quarter of 2023 arrived. I’ve traveled to Moab, UT. Along the way, I visited with family, enjoyed the colors of fall, am continually amazed by the what #TheWest means to me, and of course my awkward affection for all things #LandRover.

Since I’m away from my computer this week, my hunt and peck phone finger typing will have to suffice. The Land Rover National Rally 2023 was pushed into October. The desert in the fall is pretty special. Warm days cool nights; even a few showers. Drivers from Canada, England, Scotland and Brazil made the pilgrimage along with with drivers from 18 different states. The opportunity to enjoy our differences is bonded by Land Rover ownership.

There is a lot of common ground here. Maybe that is what brings us back together each year. My/our first Rally was 1995. Two of my three children still drive Land Rovers. They grease the body of life; literally!

Next Tuesday, I’ll be back with all the facts and figures, so please visit again. For now, this is what Land Rovers do best. That is, burn old dinosaurs!

The Club Trailer Made the Trip to Moab Again!

“Something to do, something to love, and something to hope for.”

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09/26/2023 #Headlines #TalkingPoints #Sentiment

Posted on September 26, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Politics, Business, Media, Society and these days there are the influencers to drive it all home even in the subset of the real estate industry. We are not immune from these Headlines, Talking Points or Sentiments. Am I correct?

Fall

“Fall in love with the house, not the rate.” “Reverse mortgages are safe, insured by the Federal Government and never cost you a thing as long as you live.” “Over time, home values have always increased.” I could continue, but this blog is about the Denver Residential Market. This week, we are starting to see a seasonal swing. Let’s take a look.

New Listing
1256 Down from last week, but still higher than average!
Coming Soon
138
Back On Market
257 This number is higher than average, but it is not cause for alarm.
Price Increase
105
Price Decrease
1833 Now this is really much higher than weeks past. Sellers looking to get things done before the holidays!
Pending
1053 A solid week here, but this is not a display of strength in any manner.
Withdrawn
217
Leased
81
Closed
958 Once again, this is not a show of strength here. Down from last week.
Expired
211 This is an important number to follow as the year closes out. Will many more sellers give up?

Now, let’s take a look at the total number of Active SFRs in Denver Metro.

To watch the numbers from this chart, we are up about 1,000 active listing since May of this year. We are up a solid 3,000 active listings since January of this year. Now, we could clearly argue January was too low, but I can also argue at 6,311 active listings today, we are moving toward a more normal market. If rates were not interfering with the buyers’ economics, we would be back to that January low before years end. But, we are not. The broader economics along the Front Range from Ft. Collins to Pueblo are quite strong with job growth and unfilled openings. As a result, I will not scream fire in the movie theater. “In fact, the future’s so bright, we will all need sunglasses!”

On the other hand, I would advise sellers to spend their time and energy on Market Prep, scour the market for the trend in their respective neighborhoods, and PRICE APPROPRIATELY. Statistics shows a Listing with one or more price reductions often sells for less than an appropriately priced home right out of the shoot. This is where an experienced, time tested Listing Broker pays more than dividends in this market.

So, as you look around for your listing broker, please think through the entire process.

In the meantime, #Headlines, #TalkingPoints and #Sentiment seldom tell the whole story. We will walk you through the entire process every step of the way. Your safety in this market place is out obligation! WE would be honored to be your trusted real estate advisor. We would be honored.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

303-887-3917

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10/22/2023 Megan Aller #DenverMarketWatch

Posted on September 22, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

I can highly recommend Megan Aller’s research on Denver’s Residential Market whole heartedly! She has consistently presented clear, concise and cogent reports on a weekly basis. If this is an area of interest for you please subscribe to her report. You will not be disappointed.

Have a great weekend….tc

First American Title
Metro Denver Market Review


Market softening heading into late September…
In the ever-evolving world of real estate, making informed decisions based on micro market conditions is paramount to your success. To help you navigate the intricacies of the market, we have compiled critical data points that shed light on the current landscape.

Inventory Dynamics: Late September has seen aging active inventory taking longer to sell, resulting in a growing inventory pool. Our average daily active count increased by 5.8%, with a total of 6,593 listings for sale, including 1,041 new listings. However, new listings decreased week over week by -16.3%, creating a tight inventory landscape in 2023.

Months of Inventory: The months of inventory have grown to 1.9, indicating a softening market in the 7 metro counties. A figure below 1 month suggests multiple offers, while the market’s temperature varies geographically.

Odds of Selling: The Odds of Selling stand at 47.2%, slightly below the historical average of 47.8%. We are optimistic that this metric will trend positively based on data from previous Septembers.

Demand Balancing: To achieve a balanced market with a 6-month supply of inventory, we would need 20,776 total listings, which currently stands at only 31.7% of balance.

Showing Insights: Last week, 11,790 showings were scheduled, averaging 1.8 shows per property. The median time to go under contract was 14 days, with an average of 15 showings.

Price Reductions: Price reductions remained steady at 38.1% of units going under contract, with a slightly larger reduction size of -5.6% off the original price.

To delve deeper into these vital insights and position yourself for success in this dynamic market, we invite you to download our comprehensive report. Simply click the buttons below to access this invaluable resource.

By harnessing the power of data-driven decision-making, you can stay ahead of the curve and thrive in today’s real estate landscape. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to gain a competitive edge.

Thank you for trusting us as your source for real-time market intelligence. We look forward to assisting you in making sound decisions and achieving your real estate goals, and we hope to see you at First American’s closing tables very soon!

Miss the in person event? Catch the recording here: https://bit.ly/45ZjwCt

Register for the final zoom call next Thursday at 10:00 here: https://bit.ly/3ntCpwz

Megan Aller
Sales Executive
MOBILE 720.229.6641
megan.sisk.aller@firstam.com
Checkout My Website

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09/19/2023 #Agreement #Disagrement #Resolution

Posted on September 19, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Recently, I was at a meeting, and I engaged in conversation with a gentleman from New York. Almost without introductions, he announced, “I’m a liberal from New York”. I asked him, “what does that mean?” He ummed and ahed, so I asked him, “Does that mean you would like to live in safe neighborhood? Would you also like ‘good schools’ supporting those home values? And, would you like abundant, accessible employment within a reasonable commute?” His answers to all three of these questions was the same. “I want all three!” Then I said, “Why do you label yourself as you do?”

He said, “I guess it is just something my generation grew up with, and I carried it on”. Long story short, there is much more #Agreement between us than there is #Disagreement. If you have been following me, you know #Homeownership is what binds us in #Resolution. Everyone wants a safe place to rest their respective heads, Everyone wants support for their home values with schools of a certain quality, and Everyone wants employment nearby.

Over the next year, 13 months to be exact, there will be an intense media burrage trying to divide us. #Homeownership is the key to good neighborhoods, good schools and jobs nearby. Communities with strong #homeownership have lower crime, more voters and stronger schools. So instead of buying into the divisive rhetoric, support #homeownership. Support the mortgage interest deduction, support first time homeownership pathways of down payment assistance. Discourage Wall Street’s overreach into our residential markets sweeping inventory out of reach.

I guarantee if we were able to move the gauge of owner occupancy from 60-65% to 70-75%, so many things negatively affecting some of our communities would turn toward the positive. Strong communities, safe communities, communities with quality schools and communities supporting job growth are safe are communities with a high owner occupancy. This is in our census data. It is real. We all want a secure investment in our homes. It’s not a #Red or #Blue issue, its good public policy. Get to know your candidates on both sides of the isle. Support the candidate supporting all aspects of #Homeownership. Our world will be a better place for it.

Now, let’s see what the Denver Residential Market Watch did over the last 7 days. These numbers only represent Single Family Residences.

Market Watch

New Listing
1247 This is another strong week for New Listings!
Coming Soon
171
Back On Market
279
Price Increase
500
Price Decrease
1570
Pending
1036 This is only average. This looks like a continuation from last week.
Withdrawn
205
Leased
83
Closed
966 Although a recessive number from earlier weeks, this clearly not an indication of a failing market.
Expired
222

From the above we clearly have an indication of growing supply and slowing declining demand. Now, let’s take a look at Total Supply of Active Listings over the last 10 years.

Although, we are witnessing the typical “rounding off” of the number of Active Listings, we still have a month or more before we can say 2023 is in line with years past. WE still look much better than Pre-Covid years, and 2021 and 2022 are identifying themselves as market anomalies. I could easily report, “Nothing to see here”, but something is going on, but we will have to wait to confirm it.

Please follow along and share with your friends, family, associates, Aunts and Uncles. Thank You…tc

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09/12/2023 #Community #Homeownership #WallStreet

Posted on September 12, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

This week continues my epiphany of this market. As we approach or even march into the dystopianism of urban life in many of our large metropolitan cities, I will harp on what I’ve been writing about for more than a dozen years.

I will start with #Community. I believe every single US Citizen desires Community. The wealthy man buys a Porsche and is instantly part of an elite community. A wealthy woman travels to Tuscany; same thing. Country clubs? Being part of something greater than themselves comes with the territory. The less affluent might become a part of a sewing club, a book club, volunteering at the food bank, being part of a faith or religion, or even part of a Homeowners Association. People naturally want to be a part of a community. This is why Homeownership is so, so, so, very important. It gives people Something to do, Something to love, and Something to hope for. It’s part of the American Fabric of Life.

The last part of my epiphany conversation continues to be about #WallStreet. If you follow me you know, Blackstone, Vanguard, StateStreet and more have a highly developed strategy of acquiring Single Family and Multifamily residences and becoming the world’s largest landlords. This strategy will effectively eliminate entry level residences from the first time buyer/homeowner. Historically, the entry level home has been the cornerstone of American Life. What will happen now?

Anyway, this week, Denver’s Single Family Residential Market looked like this over the last 7 days.

Market Watch

New Listings
1540 This number is huge! The largest number of 2023!
Coming Soon
174
Back On Market
294
Price Increase
190
Price Decrease
1560 This number just keeps growing. We’ve clearly moved past the price peak.
Pending
1105 A typical week, but not competitive with the above number of new listings.
Withdrawn
211
Leased
64
Closed
932 This is starting to be a seasonal trend not keeping up with supply!
Expired
234

As seen above, there are some bellwether number changes this week. Let’s see where we are going in this market. We could argue, this is great time to be a buyer; choice and low competition.

As I wrote above, we have reached our peak and started to witness average price decline. So, now let’s see how inventory is impacting this.

We have now seen the affects in Denver of High Interest Rates. There has been 7 consecutive months of slow and steady inventory growth. Still below years past, but nonetheless, inventory is growing, but the number of sales has remained stable or declined too.

This is the watershed newsletter. Is the beginning of wholesale price declines and the loss of value in this market? Keep in mind, we sill only have slightly more than 6,000 Active Listings in an 11 county metropolitan area of 3.25M. That is clearly NOT oversupply, but it is the first step?

With all of this, please be aware, this is not armageddon. If rates were to move toward 5%, this would change overnight. And, the current market continues to run, but just not as fast as 18 months ago. Let’s keep a close eye on this. I will continue to explore these trends everyweek, and keep you on track with the Denver SFR market. Please, stay tuned and tell your friends, family, aunts and uncles. We’ll be there for your homeownership journey!

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09/09/2023 #Rates #Forecast

Posted on September 9, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer
Mortgage Rate Forecast
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09/05/2023 #PrimeTime #Optimism #DifferentThisTime

Posted on September 5, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

By now, everyone on Earth following college football understands that we are now living in #PrimeTime. I root for 5 college teams: Alabama, Oklahoma, Colorado, Duke, and Notre Dame, and this week, I had a clean sweep, including Colorado, which went 1-11 last season. Coach “Prime” has sold more cowboy hats in the last week than anyone in the history of cowboy hats! Boulder is once again alive with football fans.

As I sit on my front porch composing this post this morning, I’m reminded why I live in Colorado, AND, IMHO, it is a good life! An image is worth a thousand words!

#Optimism is subjective. One person’s level of optimism is another’s bane of existence, and vice versa, right? Anyway, I follow about 8 news aggregators, and 4 of those religiously. When one is down, another is up. With all these crazy events going on, I can tell you a few things. WE are more alike than different. This truth will never fade. This does not mean we won’t have wars, economic events, and reshuffling, or the “great reset,” as is so often employed to describe our future. This is why #Homeownership is so very important. Societies, countries, and individuals vested in homeownership have superior outcomes. It is a fact.

I have wrestled with this last thought a number of times over the last few years. Will it be different this time? I’m torn. From all the sources I follow, I can argue Armageddon, and I can argue for an extremely positive future. Compromise will have to be employed, but this may even speed these #differentthistime times. Let’s jump right into the last week in Denver MLS System.

Market Watch

New Listing: 975 new listings. The count is dropping just as I have been predicting.

Coming Soon: 248. This is way up over last week, but not enough to make the market move.

Back On Market: 263.

Price Increase: 388.

Price Decrease: 1131. This continues to be the clearest sign that we are seeing a market shift.

Pending: 1077. A solid week. It bodes well for the inventory trend when contracts are more prevalent than new listings.

Withdrawn: 239.

Leased: 72.

Closed: 1112. Another solid week. Buyers and sellers continue to find their way to the closing table!

Expired: 523. Now this number is up substantially. Sellers are giving up. Move-up sellers are locked between their perception of value, current interest rates, and razor-thin inventory.

How does all this look on an Active Listing Graph?

With only 5,859 active listings in the 11-county Greater Denver Metropolitan Area, it is readily apparent that our supply is way down from last year and is one of the lowest in many years. Interest rates have not forced this market into oversupply, and we could argue that it resides in a shortage.

Let’s follow this closely. As we move into the fall and winter months, it will be interesting to report back to you. In the meantime, we are here to interpret this market for you every day. We continue to bring the most relevant inventory to our buyers’ attention and the most current market trends to our sellers. Lean on us. We will be there for you every step of the way… tc

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08/29/2023 #TacoTuesday #TattooTuesday #TestimonialTuesday #DenverMarketWatch

Posted on August 29, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning to Everyone,

We have a lot ot discuss this morning, so lets get started. First of all, #TacoTuesday! I recently had the Monterey Fish Tacos at Sierra’s in Lone Tree. When presented properly, I think fish tacos are my favorite. Having grown up with seafood, something about fish tacos taking the best from the sea and combining it with the best of the Southwest, it just strikes a chord.

As for #TattoTuesday, I have to tell you, I’m all for personal expression. Tattoos are medium of expression exhibited worldwide. When I was a kid, my father, a Navy guy, told me tattoos were not for “Officers”. What did that even mean? I was probably 10. Anyway, I’d like your comment on this. I see tattoos celebrating people, events, things and allegiances, but I rarely if ever see tattoos of places. Show me please, a tattoo of Cape Code, Key West or the Chesapeake Bay Bridge. It’s in your arm now.

We routinely receive testimonials from our clients making our hearts swoon, and this is one of them!

“The sale of our Arvada home was a very chaotic time. My wife and I were trying to get everything packed, prepare the home for sale, find a new house in CA, and travel for our jobs. Dee and Tom were very helpful and patient as we moved through the process. They kept track of all the needed documents and kept us on schedule to sign all the documents necessary. They know the business very well and provided excellent advice when there were important decisions to be made. They were very calm during a crazy time and it helped us get through the the entire process. They were able to assist in expediting the sale as the buyers wanted to move quickly. They were able to provide very personal attention and that was greatly appreciated.”

What a great couple to assist. Moving from Colorado to California is not easy!

Finally, what about the #DenverMarketWatch? In the last 7 days, it has looked like this:

New Listing
1189 Pretty much the same as last week’s news. Nothing to write home about.
Coming Soon
102 This is way down. Nothing to anticipate here.
Back On Market
280
Price Increase
429
Price Decrease
1286 About normal maybe down a little.
Pending
1118 Not a bad week, but nothing to brag about.
Withdrawn
233
Leased
67
Closed
1078 Average, Average, Average!
Expired
192

With not much change here, we are marching into the realization that #MortgageInterestRates are clearly taking their toll on Buyers and Sellers. In just 60 days, we will officially begin an #ElectionYear. As we all know, #ElectionYears always create havoc on the world. I’m going to predict right now, it will be all about promises and unfulfilled promises. Do you think I have this one right?

Last, but not least, Get ready to get out there, because it will look like this in just a few weeks!

So long for this week, and safe travels…tc

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08/24/2023 #www.econ70.com #DenverMarketWatch

Posted on August 24, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

This is Elliot’s work from last nights blog post. His market impression is almost 100% in sync with our Denver Market Watch. Enjoy!

#HotHouses

While house prices declined from $410,200 in 6/23 to $406,700 in 7/23, don’t be fooled, that’s the highest July price ever and is up from $403,800 in 7/22. Similarly, while inventory ticked up from 1.08 months in 6/23 to 1.11 months in 7/23, it’s again the lowest July level ever and well below the 1.31 months of supply in 7/22. After accounting for seasonality, the housing market is profoundly tight.
 
Econ70 – Home of GraphsandLaughs
http://www.econ70.com
Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
elliot@graphsandlaughs.net
(202) 306 2731

You should be following Elliot’s work…tc

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