Merry Christmas and soon, a Happy New Year!

Posted on December 25, 2021 by Dee & Tom Cryer

All the best to every living thing, and in the new year random acts of kindness are welcomed…tc

and a Happy New Year…
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Elliot’s Brief Blog for Friday, December 24, 2021

Posted on December 25, 2021 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Christmas costs more…???

Tom Cryer Tom@kentwood.com
303-638-3202
TheCryerTeam.com

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Elliot Eisenberg, the Bowtie Economist" <elliot@graphsandlaughs.net>
Date: December 24, 2021 at 10:33:19 PM MST
To: tomcryer@me.com
Subject: Elliot’s Brief Blog for Friday, December 24, 2021
Reply-To: elliot@graphsandlaughs.net



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12/21/2021derful

Posted on December 21, 2021 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Working from my phone today, and having missed last weeks post due to family business, I’m at a loss for words.

I’m not going to write about Denver’s residential market today. No change to report, but I am excited about what the future will bring.

A Sunset From Home

My father once told me the secret to a complete life was “Something To Do, Something To Love, and Something To Hope For…”. A lot of wisdom in these few words, but at the time I had no reason to believe he wasn’t the source. Turns out, this is biblical.

I can tell you after a lifetime of these words echoing in my head on occasion, Homeownership provides access to all three. Surely a home gives one something to do. I love my home, so how about you? There is no question one’s home provides great hope! Having had the blessing of living in my home for 29 years now, the hope it’s given has been beyond anything I could have believed.

When I’ve felt the world was going “to hell in a hand basket”, there was always my home providing shelter from from the storm! It’s a good life.

I’ve done my best to teach my children and now their children the wisdom of personal responsibility. We always had an expression in our home, “Everything you do affects somebody else”. Apparently, these life lessons have not been passed along throughout this world.

The pendulum swings, and I truly believe we will see the pendulum swing back to more reasonable times. Homeownership encourages families to grow roots, participation in community affairs and responsibility!

I guess we could say, homeownership has its own circle of life…

Last but not least, my father also said, “Be brief and be seated…” If you want to make the world a better place, encourage homeownership!

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12/07/2021derful #DayofInfamy #FreedomIsNotFree #PearlHarbor #80

Posted on December 7, 2021 by Dee & Tom Cryer

My father served in the Navy. He arrived in the Pacific shortly after #PearlHarbor. He served as a Radar Specialist on a Troop Transport. He rarely if ever talked about his time in the Pacific Theatre, but he did tell me once, just once, “War is bad, and Nobody Wins”.

The weekly activity continues to show no stopping demand, but supply has decided not to attend the party. Clearly staying home was the plan…

New Listing (609) Too few…
Coming Soon (74)
Back On Market (154)
Price Increase (216)
Price Decrease (306)
Pending (1192) Strong seasonal demand…
Withdrawn (94)
Leased (50)
Closed (1776) Quite shocking! This would be a great week during the summer season!!
Expired (267)
REColorado.com over the last 7 days, above.

Below, we’ll take a look at our supply of active listing over the course of this year. It is readily apparent, but we are currently sitting on about a third of the inventory we had during mid-year. Take a look.

Denver Metro 11 Counties Active Listing for 2021

This market of limited supply has brought out the best and worst of all participants in this market. Buyers are fuming anger when they lose, and praising their heavenly father when they win. Sellers are ecstatic with this new price paradigm, but some want even more. This dichotomy has us constantly coaching our clients away from the rim of the cauldron. The market is hot, and our goal is to not let anyone get burned. Anyway you count them, 1,601 Active Listings is too few for a market this size.

When you head into this market, prepare, consult, plan and study. Anything less will only bring failure. We had a new listing this week. We had nearly 60 showings over the weekend, and we received 19 written offers. Upon review, we did everything correctly. We studied the market, reviewed the comparables and personally scouted the competitive inventory. The anomaly we couldn’t account for was how impactful the lack of inventory would be on this listing.

I guess the moral of this story is, “The Market is not always kind”. Nothing could be more true. For buyers, nothing could be more true. Take the time to head into this market with a “battle tested” team of professionals. Your broker, your lender, your inspectors, and your partner should all understand the goal and carry laser focus. It’s not that hard, but it does take experience and professionalism.

Let’s talk… 303-638-3202

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11/30/2021derful #HennyPenny #SwimmingNaked #ForrestGump

Posted on November 30, 2021 by Dee & Tom Cryer

The sky is not falling. Overextending oneself only serves to create problems when the tide goes out. “Stupid is as stupid does.”

I like to check in on Twitter. On Tuesday mornings when I’m writing this, I get inspiration from what’s trending. First, the media is going to do everything in its power to create a negative out of a positive, but the sky is not falling. Because a market goes up, it is not a bad thing. But, if you overextend yourself, we will see you “naked”. Following blindly into the abyss will certainly expose your stupidity.

Since we’ve explored the wisdom of a fairy tail, Warren Buffet and Forrest Gump, let’s see what the numbers are saying over the last 7 days.

New Listing (352) I’ve never seen this number so low. It’s a great time to put your home on the market; no question about it…
Coming Soon (94) One of these is ours, and I can tell you from experience, this is a great time to put your home on the market!
Back On Market (123)
Price Increase (103)
Price Decrease (183)
Pending (903) Seasonally low, and nothing to be concerned about.
Withdrawn (75) Off the market for the holidays… FYI “Over priced”.
Leased (50)
Closed (973) Once again, seasonally low.
Expired (107)
REColorado Denver Metro 11 Counties Over the Last 7 Days

The above chart tells a story, but it also forces us to ask questions. The chart below this will try to answer some of those questions.

Time frame is from Dec 2020 to Nov 2021
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

November is closed out for all intents and purposes right now. It is showing 1,648 Active Listings today. This is extremely low. It may set a record.

Why is the supply so low. Millennials are creating families, Boomers are “aging in place”, Xers are moving up, and new construction where consumers what to live is well above average prices for the area. So, what does this mean? The Sky Is Not Falling, but don’t get caught with your pants down, and please don’t do what Stupid does!

Give us a call, we’ll put you on the right track as your Trusted Advisors.

Kentwood Real Estate
4949 S. Niagara St. #400
Denver, CO 80237
303-638-3202

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11/23/2021derful #HappyBirthday #HappyThanksgiving #DenverNewsAlert #StalemateMarket #WhoYaGonnaCall

Posted on November 23, 2021 by Dee & Tom Cryer

There comes a time in any market when buyers and sellers drift apart. Buyers always want last year’s prices. Sellers want next years prices. Our Denver market will drift closer and closer to this hypothesis. I use the term drift, because it will not be a flash overnight, but time will pass, and we will drift into this new “stalemate market”. But, we are not there yet, so let’s take a “look see” at what’s going on with the #DenverMarketWatch today.

Over the last 7 days, this is what has happened in Denver Metro.

New Listing (691) To Low!
Coming Soon (37) Even Lower!!!
Back On Market (171)
Price Increase (185)
Price Decrease (418)
Pending (1429) Simply Amazing Demand!!!
Withdrawn (128)
Leased (45)
Closed (1611) “Big Wheel Keeps on Turnin'”
Expired (152)
REColorado over the last 7 days Denver Metro.

As you can see above, strong weekly numbers continue to “amaze” in this market. With no inventory coming on the market, for me, this would be the perfect time to go Active in this market.

Let’s see how this looks year to date:

Time frame is from Jan 2021 to Nov 2021
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’,
‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

As you can see above, closed properties in blue, and active listings in green, demand is out stripping supply, and it is indicative of a market going into 22Q1 as an exact replica of 21Q1, and we all know what happened last spring. Crazy supply and demand ratios, and it will happen again in 2022.

#WhoYaGonnaCall

Dee & Tom Cryer, SCRP
Broker Associates
THE CRYER TEAM
Kentwood Real Estate
4949 S. Niagara St. #400
Denver, CO 80237
303-638-3202

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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11/16/2021derful #BuytheDip #WhoKnew #FoolsandNewcomers #BetterThanZillow?

Posted on November 16, 2021 by Dee & Tom Cryer

This week is not much different from any week we’ve reported on this year. Too few new listings, strong under contract demand, and closings happening at an extremely high percentage of those contracts. Buyers and Sellers are still getting these deals to closing at an unprecedented rate. Take a look.

New Listing (732) The lowest I’ve observed all year.
Coming Soon (102) The lowest I’ve observed this year.
Back On Market (204)
Price Increase (102)
Price Decrease (508)
Pending (1517) A very strong number for this time of year.
Withdrawn (151)
Leased (60)
Closed (1536) This is a mid season number reflecting the buyers’ desire to complete the “Deal”…
Expired (148)
The MLS Over the Last 7 Days

Below is the trend of Listings over the last 10 years…

Time frame is from Jan 2011 to Oct 2021
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘
Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

As you can see, inventory/supply of Single Family Homes in our 11 county Denver Metro Market continues to shrink as we move into year’s end. This can only mean Q1’22 will be a Field Day for sellers. Putting one’s home on the market in early January will be a smart move. Putting one’s home on the market right now, might be even smarter…

The market has transcended into a neighborhood by neighborhood analysis for accurate value predictions. Comparing your home or shopping for a new homes with a Macro approach will not serve you well. Market’s are LOCAL. Never forget this. Location, Location, Location and Timing, Timing, Timing will always serve you well.

So, if we address the Hashtags above, There will be no dip very soon, We did, Predicting the future, and remember, even the best Algorithm is just that. If you’ve been searching for “Boots on the Ground”… Please let us guide you through the Market Fog. We’ll be there for you every step of the way…

Dee & Tom Cryer, SCRP
Broker Associates
THE CRYER TEAM
Kentwood Real Estate
4949 S. Niagara St. #400
Denver, CO 80237
303-638-3202
Th

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11/09/2021derful #TestimonialTuesday #NationalGratitudeMonth #DenverMarketWatch

Posted on November 9, 2021 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Everyone,

Thank You for tuning in this week!

Tuesdays are a great day of the week to collect data. Not to much weekend activity to skew the numbers and not to much of the week’s end activity. It’s just the perfect day in my humble opinion. But first, this month is National Gratitude Month.

“Always have an attitude of gratitude.”

Fall Back

“Gratitude is riches. Complaining is poverty.”

“This is a wonderful day. I have never seen this one before.”

And, last but not least, “Living in Denver is a gift for which we should all be grateful”.

And, Dee and I are grateful for testimonials like this one;

“The Cryer team is a gem of a team at Kentwood. We were fortunate to have partnered with them in this journey. Dee has been extremely thorough, methodical and phenomenal buyers agent. She is extremely dependable and wins the customer trust with facts, focus, thought out process and intention. She reads and discusses very frequently making sure we are on the right path, leads us to the right path when sometimes buyers could be emotional and not logical. Brilliant experience. Makes the Realtors world a better place with agents like Dee & Tom for buyers/sellers. We need more of them to make a better impression to the realtor community.” …Anitha T.

As we take another look at the MLS numbers around Metro Denver for this Week #45, we can see the trend continues. Far too few new listings, and buyers continuing to find listings to place under contract and get to the closing table. I‘ve repeated this before, but in a “SMSA like Denver” with somewhere around 3.25M people and around 145K residences, we should have more for sale! When a Denver Metro Buyer comes into this market, we can literally scan their favorite neighborhoods with NO results. Let’s take a closer look below.

New Listing (870) Not enough…
Coming Soon (130)
Back On Market (194)
Price Increase (219)
Price Decrease (496)
Pending (1599) This is a mid-season number, not late fall… Demand is crazy high!
Withdrawn (140)
Leased (32)
Closed (1540) Another mid-season number. Crazy demand…
Expired (191)
MLS Last 7 Days

As you can see, the 11 counties I count making up my Denver Metro Statistical Area clearly is telling a continuing story of shortage vs. strong demand.

Next we have this historical perspective. It too, clearly shows us the long term trend of diminished supply and consistent strong demand.

Time frame is from Jan 2021 to Nov 2021
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

We are not through November yet, and already you can see after the first week, there is no shortage of demand. And, supply continues to drop to the levels of spring 2021. Once again, I’m not seeing any statistic here indicating a “bubble” is on the horizon. Come back next week, and I will provide a 10 year look at this market offering even more confirmation to my hypothesis.

In the meantime, if you have questions or concerns about your real estate, we’ve got you covered. Let’s talk…tc


Dee & Tom Cryer, SCRP
Broker Associates
THE CRYER TEAM
Kentwood Real Estate
4949 S. Niagara St. #400
Denver, CO 80237
303-638-3202
TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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11/02/2021derful #TrickorTreat #KentwoodRealEstate

Posted on November 2, 2021 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Hello Everyone,

Another week has come and gone. #MyTownCryer is here to report what’s happened over the last 7 days in the Denver Metro Residential Market, and we are here to put this in perspective with what’s been happening over time. Let’s start right off with the last 7 days.

New Listing (805) This is very low number; even lower than last week!
Coming Soon (174)
Back On Market (211)
Price Increase (179)
Price Decrease (581)
Pending (1671) This is a very high number for this season!
Withdrawn (134)
Leased (46)
Closed (1786) Another banner week for closings. The question remains; where is this supply coming from?
Expired (346)
Denver Metro REColorado.com Last 7 Days

So, very few New Listings, and huge numbers on Pending and Closed Listings, we will have to look at inventory now.

Time frame is from Dec 2020 to Nov 2021
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

Well Folks, it looks like to me, the same old story is presenting itself. Fewer listings, strong demand and stable interest rates. I believe we are in a very “Healthy” place right now. Let’s not fear the bubble.

As always, if you have any questions, concerns or just want to talk about your residential strategy, don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Dee & Tom Cryer, SCRP
Broker Associates
THE CRYER TEAM
Kentwood Real Estate
4949 S. Niagara St. #400
Denver, CO 80237
303-887-3917 / 303-638-3202
TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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10/26/2021derful #NationalPumkinDay @CathieDWood @Jack

Posted on October 26, 2021 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Everyone,

This is a great country! This week we have a famous fund manager arguing with a famous startup billionaire with diametrically opposed opinions about INFLATION on National Pumpkin Day! If I didn’t read it in the “news”, I wouldn’t believe it. Where would the world be without #Twitter?

Inflation is something I know a little bit about. When Dee and I bought our first together house in 1982, interest rates on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage were 14.5%. Inflation rates were down to 6% from 13% in 1980. The “silent tax” ruins lives; slowly, surely and continuously, it ruins lives! The cost of living ruins people on fixed incomes. Prices get so high consumers stop buying. Businesses get killed. If you bought a house in many parts of Denver in 1982, it may have had a completely stagnant value all the way to 1992. Owning a home during this window of time was all about debt reduction, tax advantages and the benefits of a fixed monthly housing cost. So, even in the worst of times, home ownership still had a very predictable and very valuable outcome! #HomeownershipMatters

What’s up this week with #DenverRealEstate?

New Listing (925) To Low!
Coming Soon (123)
Back On Market (227)
Price Increase (192)
Price Decrease (570)
Pending (1707) Wow!
Withdrawn (128)
Leased (47)
Closed (1574) What a market!
Expired (137)
DENVER WEEKLY MARKET WATCH

Week in and week out Denver’s market keeps proving the #BubbleWatchers wrong. Let’s take a look at Denver’s Market over time.

Time frame is from Jan 2011 to Sep 2021
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

Call me when we have over 20,000 listings like 2011 and 2011. This market will continue to be very active with strong buyer demand and short seller supply. The “Black Swan” mentality is out there. Interest Rates, Covid, War, Wall St., Inflation, you name it, but Denver’s market fights back with its vibrant demographics, strategic geographic location, and a desirable and unique lifestyle. No need to worry today!

Let’s make a prediction. Next week’s #hashtag could be anything on the 3rd Rock, but I’m betting everyone will be coming unglued with #Election, #Inflation and #China. What’s your bet?

In the meantime, read this anecdotal episode on a property I took a look at last week. “We had over 110 showings and more than 30 offers from activity on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.” Make sure your Professional Team has the experience to carry you to the closing table. This market requires it.

Dee and Tom Cryer, SCRP
Broker Associates
THE CRYER TEAM
Kentwood Real Estate
4949 S. Niagara St. #400
Denver, CO 80237
303-887-3917 / 303-638-3202
TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

PS… That listing is only a mile from my own home. This market is real.

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