Let’s get right into it. One of the most forward thinking pieces of data in Residential Real Estate is the rate at which Active Listings are go Pending. Please, listen to this; if you’re a buyer in the Denver Residential Market, and you are waiting for the big “Correction”, “fuggedaboutit”…!!! Follow along please…
New Listing (1140). Over the last 7 days in Denver, this many New Active Listings…
LONG STORY SHORT, WE JUST KEEP BUYING MORE THAN WE ARE LISTING, WEEK OVER WEEK.
The next chart is going to reflect the number of Active Listings vs. the number of recent Pendings on a monthly basis for the last 10 years. This market is healthy!
Notice the consistency of the Green (Pending) Line vs. the Blue (Active Listing) line. Once again, if you are waiting for capitulation in the Denver Residential Housing Market, it’s not coming anytime soon. When the Green Line is greater than the Blue Line, we are placing more Listings to Pending than we are putting new signs in the ground for Active. This is the classic view of strong Demand and tight Supply.
OK, this next chart is simply Active Listings in Total over a 10 year View.
Keep in mind, both of these charts are the 11 Counties making up the greater Metro Area.
Once again, Long Story Short; we will move toward a more balanced market. We are not there yet. My prediction is over the next 6-12 months, much of the “Multiple Offer” scenarios will wane into the background and buyers will actually get to show a property 1, 2 or even 3 times before having to right a contract. Sellers will have to make their homes “Parade Ready”. No more unkept lawns, interiors and/or serious defects. Buyers will have a Trump Card finally.
This will be a slow moving train, but it will be forceful and observable.
That’s right. Right now, we are beginning to live behind Walls of Worry. You name it, and IT is picking away at our Residential Market. Energy Costs, Interest Rates, China, Taiwan, Ukraine, on and on… George Washington was quoted, Worry is interest paid by those who borrow trouble. Fear not, the water is warm, come on it. Homeownership is all that and more!
Let’s take a look at this Chart.
New Listing (1533) This is a very healthy number for Buyers. Inventory is coming your way.
Let’s take a look at available inventory trends with this next chart.
Time frame is from Jan 2012 to Apr 2022 County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’
Let’s be honest here, BUYERS are getting prepared for greater fairness in Denver’s Residential Market! The pendulum swings, but make no mistake, in Demand Neighborhoods will still treat buyers poorly for some time to come. Nuances in markets come and go, but we are still here to answer your questions, handle your concerns, and walk with you, step by step, every step of the way…tc
I am currently on the trail of the #UtahTraverse. Or as we’ve been told, the #DirtyTraverse! Let me tell you, if you want to see it, be part of it and live it, look no further than Utah!
I will not be doing a market report this week.
When partaking in #vehicleassistedtravel, it makes one realize how complicated we make things. I’ll just leave you with an image or two or….
With the help of Elliot Eisenberg this week, I will “be brief and be seated”. #CommodityInflation which includes #Energy #Food and #Metals and #DomesticLabor scarcity is making everything from my cheese burger to my driveway more expensive. #ChinaLockDowns are going make “supply chain” a dinner conversations for years ahead. #Russia and #Ukraine continues to be a “war like none other” as they say on the news almost everyday. (I think all wars are like none other.) All in, the pond is full of #BlackSwans with all this happening in less than a year.
What affect has this had on Denver’s Residential Real Estate Market?
New Listing (1314). This is a huge jump in the weekly add of New Listings!!!
Denver Market Watch Over the Last 7 Days as Provided by REColorado.com
As you can see above, we now have ample supply coming into the market, we have continual demand swallowing it up for the time being, BUT Price Decrease and Back on the Market Listings are both #BlackSwans hiding and waiting for where we may be heading.
This chart below says we left April behind with 2,839 Active Listings with May growing, but in perspective, we need what’s happening with supply now…, but for how long?
Time frame is from Jan 2012 to Apr 2022 County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’ Originating System Name is one of ‘REcolorado’
OK, Here are the numbers: January 1,638 Active Listings on the Market, February 1,735, March 2,281 April 2,839 and May is already showing signs of acceleration. Expect more Active Listings in the Days, Weeks and Months ahead.
A quick note here; We could easily absorb and work well with twice this much inventory, but It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Comeback next week and please subscribe; it’s easy…tc
#WhoKnew the Russians would invade the Ukraine? #WhoKnew long term mortgage rates would go up so quickly? #WhoKnew this market would march along almost unaffected by any of these external factors. Let’s see what this week’s MLS numbers are telling us…
New Listing (1182). This is quite an improvement over weeks past. Solid! This should help buyers, but look below…
Coming Soon (421). Another solid number adding to the coming growth of supply, but let’s look further down.
Pending (1921). WOW!!! This is a huge number. Whenever this number approaches or exceeds 2K, it’s a big week. All those New Listings have new buyers waiting for them…
How many Active Listings do we have this month vs. last month? Even though last year was a record year for low inventory, this year in spite of all the #BlackSwans mentioned above, 2022 still has lower inventory than 2021. Hard to believe, but in the 11 counties surrounding Denver, it’s true! Based on history, buyers should be enjoying some more choices over the summer months!
So, as we await this trend of more inventory, let’s keep our cards close to the vest. Get your life in order to be a buyer or a seller. Gather funds and credit to compete as a buyer. De-Clutter and purge if you plan to be a seller.
In spite of market conditions, our buyers are winning at a very high percentage. Our sellers are routinely setting records in their market areas. This is only accomplished by strategic planning and perseverance. Let us help you…tc
Did you present a contract on your next chapter home and lose out? If so, your IRA PROBABLY FUNDED THE SALE!!! Your homeless, but your IRA is earning 5 or 6% renting the property while you’re in your parent’s basement, on your friends couch or paying rent on an apartment you hate. Yes, your competition might just be a managed fund from Wall Street. Black Rock, Vanguard and a dozen others have determined it’s easy to make money on #MainStreet.
New Listing (967). Bummer, this number is lower than last week. Maybe it was Easter Weekend, maybe it was something else, but this has broken a nice trend we were enjoying with growing numbers of New Listings.
Coming Soon (504). On the other hand, this is a huge increase, so, I’m sticking with my Easter Weekend theory.
Price Decrease (354). Many more listings surviving the weekend, so price adjustments are seen as necessary!
Pending (1465). Once again, buyers are finding their way to being Under Contract. This does not bode well for buyers being shut out of the market by more aggressive buyers.
Closed (1389). This is a routine seasonal number. In the weeks to come, we will start to see the Closing trend mature and give us a glimpse into the strength of Denver’s Market.
We have been tossed around a little coming into spring. We’ve been thrown at least a couple #curveballs. We watched March tell us, supply and inventory was building, and we had hopes of some relief for buyers being shut out. But, this chart tells us something different.
Time frame is from May 2021 to Apr 2022 County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’
So, what have we learned this fine spring morning? First, buyers are not only competing against themselves, they are competing agains #WallSt. money too. There really are #Lions and #Tigers confronting buyers in these market times, and it is not fun for participants.
Next, we thought inventory would be starting to grow by this point in the season, especially with rising rates, but it’s not.
Finally, if the number of listings tripled, we’d still be below historical averages of inventory. Buyers in this market can’t catch a break, #OhMy…
We’ll see you next week. In the meantime, watch your P’s and Q’s…tc
Let’s get right into it. Over the last 7 days we’ve observed the best swing toward buyers we’ve seen this year. With well over 1 thousand new Listings coming on the market, buyers are finally getting a choice. ON the other hand, buyers cleared over 1,700 Listings going Under Contract. #Rates have hit a new high in this business cycle. WE will see what happens with this slowing the market…???
New Listing (1109) This is a great number for buyers. If we were to see this continue to grow, we will move toward balance much more quickly. Maybe June/July?
Multiple Listing Service Data over the last 7 days in Metro Denver.
Next up… Where have our totals number of Active Listings gone over the last week. Let’s take a look.
The number of Active Listings has see a “bounce”, and it is a significant bounce.
In the last 7 days, the number of active listings in the 11 counties making up the Denver Metro Market has bounced to over 2,000 Active Properties. This is up from around 1,300 active listings last Tuesday.
We are finally seeing some opportunities on the lower end. With Rates bumping up and then bumping up again, this has added to the Buyer Fatigue at this price point. Don’t give up!
In a time when so many variables are coming at us so quickly, our residential market remains resilient to the #BlackSwan of the day. Whether it be #Rates, #Affordability, #Supply or #War Denver continues to weather the storm and remain strong. That being said, Denver’s market is very complicated and nuanced. You will need a guide. Someone working on your behalf. Someone who cares. The Cryer Team is here. Lean in on us…tc
Customers and Clients are always asking me, “What’s going to happen?” Let’s take a walk down Memory Lane. If I ever live long enough to develop a subdivision, it will have the street name of Memory!
This week is about external factors. You know; the stuff we can’t control in Colorado; Denver or even your own neighborhood. When one studies current economic conditions globally, and then by country, state, city and then neighborhood, it’s easy to see we have so much external pressure just waiting to BUST us. Being 500 miles from nowhere, Denver tends to think of itself as an island, BUT… Guess what, we are not! Legislation, attitudes, beliefs and global tension can all sneak in and ruin our party out on the plains and up into the foothills.
Now, I’m not saying all these #BlackSwans are going to jump out of the pond and happen all at once. Over years and a number of market cycles we’ve learned it is “never just one thing”. It is the layering affect. Like baking a cake. A bite from interest rates, weak economic news, a market crash on Wall St., a war, energy costs, affordability, and on and on and on. As the layers of sediment build up, the impact on our local economy becomes sluggish. Fewer buyers show up at our doorsteps, and the “look out” starts to send warning signals. We saw a market like this one in late ’70s and into the early and mid ’80s. Ferocious demand ’76, ’77, ’78 and so on. Subsequently tamed by higher rates and then over supply changed the way we started looking at the market. In some neighborhoods, you could have purchased a home 1982, and 10 years later, in 1992 you might have barely been able to get out of it with any gain at all. In 2004, you could have purchased a new home in the ‘burbs’, loaded it up with cheap debt and suffered through years of very nasty market conditions.
So, why is this cycle anything like these past cycles. Well, it is, and it is not. During this cycle, most of these run up years have been punctuated with strong down payments, equity and expansion in this market. On the other hand, we continue to see these layers move into our market. One at a time, lining up, they threaten the SELLER’S market to which we’ve built a love-hate relationship.
So, what’s my prediction? I believe our market will balance preventing the pendulum from swinging too far in the OTHER direction, but it will move toward a balance. I believe this will start to show up between now and the November Elections. Watch this closely. We should move toward at least a Month’s Supply of inventory by Mid-Summer. As Buyer Fatigue, the constant friction from interest rates, energy costs start getting a firm grip on home budgets and the inevitable tax increase, the layers will start to build up enough resistance to cause supply shortage to slowly drift a Balanced Supply. Now, don’t get me wrong, we have a very well educated population in the demographic group thirsting for homeownership. We have a more senior population aging in place. Finally, for today’s conversation, I don’t see builders becoming the supply source they became in previous cycles. Our land and its development costs are just too high!
Let’s stop here Denver, and let’s get back to what happened in the last week.
New Listing (874) This is a great number. Over the last 4 weeks, we’ve witnessed this Tuesday Number move from the 500s to into the 900s now. Buyers will have a chance?
Price Increase (320). Listing Brokers are raising list prices as multiple offers push prices above active list prices. Nobody is being fooled her, but eventually this will steer statistics.
These numbers over the last 7 days demonstrate two things. Buyers are finally getting a few choices, and sellers are still breaking records.
Next up, what has happed to the total number of active listings in the last week? The graph below will give you a hint. Last week we had 1,239 Active Listing and today we have 1,347. Is this our swing toward balance?
Time frame is from May 2021 to Apr 2022 County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’ Property Type is ‘Residential’ Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’
Only time will prove one’s story, but I believe this story is well sourced, quickly presented and relevant. Please enjoy…tc
In this market with limited inventory, I’m calling this week a success. We were able to persevere in the $500K range and get one of our first time buyers Under Contract! Yeah!! WE also obtained a new listing in University Park. I’m calling it “NEW CENTURY MODERN”. It has THE BEST contemporary finishes from top to bottom including a solar system, heated floors and a professionally finished basement. It will be in the $2.2M price range with showings available within the next week.
Additionally, we still have buyers voraciously seeking shelter in Wheat Ridge in or around $900K. We have another client seeking shelter near Cheesman Park, Governor’s Park or Capital Hill in an amenity building in or around $400-450K. On this one, we keep losing to “cash buyers”, bummer… And, we have a buyer looking around $1-1.5M in Cherry Creek High School.
We have several buyers not quite here yet, but they will be coming in from Charlotte, NoCal, FL and TX. Long story short, If you have a property to move in this market, we have the buyer for it in hand. ARE YOU READY TO RUMBLE?…. That’s what it feels like some days.
Finally, I know rates have moved up a bit from a year ago, but what hasn’t. I often wonder if we are starting to pay what intrinsic value is rather than cost. Who knows, but with values increasing and rates increasing, month cost for a home will continue to move during 2022. The “water is warm, dip in now, don’t wait”…
Good Morning Folks! We had one of those live meetings or video chats this morning, so, I’m a little slow putting this together. Let’s dive right in. Here are the numbers for this week in the Denver MLS System…
New Listing (735) Well, just slightly up from last Tuesday’s count. This will not solve our supply issues.
Pending (1462) This is a grand mid-season number. On the down side of this, we are seeing so many listings go to contract prior to becoming live in the MLS. “Clear Cooperation” is not something many sellers are buying into.
LSS, Week After Week, We Continue To Observe The Same Market Numbers. A New Paradigm? A New Normal?
Anyway, were are we on the Active Listing Count?
I Hate To Even Mention This, But With Only 1,239 Active Listings This Morning, We Are Lower Than Last Week At This Same Time!
I’m Shaking My Head. That’s all I can say this morning. I’m not seeing one little impact from Rate Increases, Wars, Energy Costs or Our Cost of Living in this market right now. There are hundreds, maybe thousands of qualified buyers out there, but they don’t have the horse power to offer a seller “Non-refundable” earnest money. They can’t bridge the “Appraisal Gap”. They are fearful of giving up their Inspection or Appraisal Objection. In this new Paradigm, buyers have to be BOLD, BRAVE and possibly even a bit BRASH in order to WIN in this market.
My question is simple. What allows one buyer to go ALL IN, while another buyer can’t pull that same TRIGGER? #DidYouEverWonderWhy?
In the meantime, Dee and Company are off to an amazing start in 2022. Her perseverance, focus and communication skills continue to get her foot in the door. She’s my Realtor for life!
MyTownCryer 
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