Plateaued Progress

February and March new home sales rebounded from January’s dismal 583,000 seasonally adjusted annualized sales (SAAS), the weakest monthly total since 10/22. Yes, March sales were up 7.4% M-o-M but were up just 3.3% Y-o-Y, and sales have been tightly rangebound between 600,000-700,000 SAAS since 1/23. Moreover, elevated inventories, declining median sales prices, meaningfully higher interest rates since the Iran War, and gas at $4.50/gallon suggest very limited near-term upside.