08/30/2022 #Elections #HomeOwnership #Unafiliated #Voter #Republican #Democrat

Posted on August 30, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

I wanted to add some comments this morning about the upcoming election in Colorado. Did you know as of 08/01/2022 according to the Colorado Secretary of State, there are 3,691,401 active registered voters in Colorado? Did you know of those 3.7M voters, 1.65M of those are Unaffiliated Voters; 931K of those voters are Republican and about 1M of those registered are Democrat. This tells me, almost half of all registered active voters in Colorado prefer not to be branded by a Party… Interesting, isn’t it?

At the same time, voter participation in Colorado continues to be as high as ever. The shift toward the Unaffiliated Voter is more about Party Alignment but not voting. Basically, 1.65 registered voters find freedom being a voter from the outside in rather than the inside out. As an example, as an unaffiliated voter, I can vote in either primary, but not both. Interesting times in which we live?

One thing is for sure, November will come and go. Some number of us will be happy with the election results on the day after and some number will be unhappy. But, the sun will come up in the morning…

Over the last 7 days in the Denver MLS, the stats are not offering anything truly new to the story. Please follow along…

New Listing (1252) This is not indicative of a market where sellers want to get out and run. It is typical seasonal weekly number.
Coming Soon (95)
Back On Market (291) Deals falling is typical, but this is starting to be on the high side. Is it rates, inspections or fear?
Price Increase (90)
Price Decrease (1604) This is a very telling number. Of the 6-7,000 active listings in our market area, about 25% required a Price Decrease to move toward a written offer.
Pending (1388) This is actually quite a strong weekly number. Maybe since the Listing the buyer wanted was priced appropriately, making an offer became more acceptable?
Withdrawn (211)
Leased (68)
Closed (1128) Not a great week, but clearly an acceptable week.
Expired (226)

However we measure the weekly activity, it still shows great strength with a lot of buyer/seller cooperation going on. From a Broker’s point of view, this is shaping up to be a very fair and more normal market. If you are a buyer who has been waiting on the sideline, maybe now will be a great opportunity for you to find the right property. Let us show you how.

As we close out August, we have 7,010 Active Residential Listings.

The Last 10 Years

What are some of the factors causing the market to build inventory? Interest Rates, Affordability, Fear, Election Anxiety, Economic Fortunes, War, Supply Chain, Inflation, Stagflation, and more. What has impacted your decision to buy or sell in this market?

Homeownership is one of these most important factors to our country’s fabric. Homeownership improves communities, increases participation, improves schools, neighborhood safety is clearly better than areas of low ownership rates and more. Take advantage of Homeownership. It helps everyone!

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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08/23/2022 #MoodoftheMarket @themotleyfool #ColoradoQuotes #TheCryerTeam

Posted on August 23, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

dollar-currency-money-us-dollar-47344.jpeg“Buyers want last year’s prices. Sellers want next year’s prices.” – JF

“Everybody needs money.  That’s why they call it money.”  –  Heist

“I constructed a laboratory in the neighborhood of Pike’s Peak. The conditions in the pure air of the Colorado Mountains proved extremely favorable for my experiments, and the results were most gratifying to me.” – Nikola Tesla

Almost every week when constructing this little post, I’m struck by the thoughts that race through my head.  These three quotes have been running around in my head for the last little bit, so I’m sharing them this morning.  Enjoy…

This week’s MLS Stats are not dramatically different from last week, but let’s get granular!
New Listing (1307)  Clearly, this is not a dramatic change, but it is lower than last week.
Coming Soon (144)
Back On Market (276)
Price Increase (117)
Price Decrease (1697)  Sellers are still trying to “milk” the market for that last $, and it is clearly not working.  This is NOT the time to challenge price in this market.
Pending (1401) This is nice strong number.  This is a good week!  Rates did dip a bit…???
Withdrawn (247)
Leased (82)
Closed (1170)  Now, this is nothing to brag about, but it is still over 1K per week.  This is the line in the sand for me.
Expired (246)

Overall, there is nothing to brag about here, but once again, NOT a bad week at all, “Henny Penny, the sky is NOT falling!”

What about total numbers?  Let’s take a look…

Looking at the number of Active Listings over the last ten years on this chart, it is important to note, we are currently more than 3 times the number of Active Listings from January, 2022, but that was an all time LOW. Right now, we are seeing the number of new listings each week rounding off the top of the chart, and I believe this will continue through the end of the year. This assumes rates will stay in their current range without another dramatic SPIKE!

The word GRANULAR became front and center this week. We have the tools, knowledge and skill to create a personalized search for you presenting only the properties of YOUR interest.

Lean In On Us… We’ll be there for you! TheCryerTeam@mytowncryer

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08/16/2022 #RoseanneRoseannadanna #83Days #ILoveHistory #DenverMarketWatch

Posted on August 16, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

“Good Morning Vietnam”! Just an old Robin WIlliams movie, but always a great wake up call… I’m of an age where I was right on the cusp of the draft ending, the war in Vietnam ending and Richard Nixon ending. The reason I bring this up? Over the last year, I have mentioned the age we are in feels, looks, and acts a lot like the ’70s, but far and away, the music was much better then!

#GildaRadner was Roseanne Roseannadanna a character on SNL. Once again, SNL was so much better in the ’70s.

Of course, we are just #83Days until our next election day. Learn about your local election commission’s role in your election balloting process. I spent time with our town’s election commission. I learned a lot.

#ILoveHistory? Well, I have the good fortune to revisit so many books from the past and to be exposed to new works of recent history via Libby (Audio Books for Free). This is good fortune to be able to consume books while multitasking. (Driving) Anyway, you’re probably here to read my take on Denver’s Residential Market. Most weeks, I post pertinent stats on Denver’s Single Family Residential Market. Please subscribe, and follow along…

New Listing (1414) This is not an unusually high number. Seasonally, it might even be considered an average weekly number.
Coming Soon (160)
Back On Market (239)
Price Increase (78)
Price Decrease (1633) Sellers continue to price off the past rather than what’s in the here and now.
Pending (1425) Just a couple of months ago, this was a common occurrence; More Pending each week than New. Is this seasonal or just an anomaly? Only time will tell.
Withdrawn (253)
Leased (70)
Closed (1189) Now, this number is not low, but it is certainly not representative of a typical summer week… Should this continue, the total listing count can only go up!
Expired (230)

So, over the last 7 days, above, we’ve seen an almost identical overlay of the last few weeks, and up from last week’s 6,657 total SFRs Active, this week we have 6,809 Active. Not significant, but clearly moving in the wrong direction for sellers. Please Keep In Mind, exactly 10 years ago, we had 14,146 Active SFR Listings. Let’s see that on a chart.

Active SFR Listings in Denver Metro for the Last 10 Years.

So, what’s my rendition of the true story on Denver’s Market? Follow along please…

  • Interest Rates are up +/-2%. An old rule of thumb is every 1% increase takes 10% of active buyers out of the market. Have we lost 20% of our buyers? Tough to tell on that one, but we have lost a bunch…
  • We have had an unbelievable run in our market. People who purchased 10 years ago have easily doubled there purchase price in most market segments. Of course, we were coming out of the “worst recession since the ‘Great Depression’. When the base is low, it is easy to build on it.
  • For the most part, these things weigh heavily on our market, but I do not believe in any fashion will we face the trauma of 2006-2011…
  • Denver’s Demographics have been perfect for the SFR market. All ages have been buyers. Household formation has been brisk.
  • We continue to rank high on places for seniors to “Age in Place”. That will continue to keep resale inventory lower than some other markets.
  • My Forecast? WE are not going to experience the type of Appreciation sellers have enjoyed, and I don’t see a pathway to serious Depreciation such as we experienced in the last decade. It’s a good life!

In the meantime, lean in on TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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O8/09/2022 @RideRTD #DenverMonsoon #Broncos #ThoseWereTheDays #VirtualClosings

Posted on August 9, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

This month, RTD is free! Beware standing water. Pre-Season Broncos with new owners; so many questions! Who remembers jumbo jets driving over I-70? My first computer was (Expensive) arrived 1984. Don’t believe it when anyone says “paperless”. It still hasn’t happened!

Well, what happened in the last 7 days with Denver Real Estate?

New Listing (1428) Clearly not a growing concern here.
Coming Soon (198)
Back On Market (280)
Price Increase (103)
Price Decrease (1803). Agressive Sellers are getting their hands slapped.
Pending (1438). A nice strong seasonal number!
Withdrawn (259)
Leased (51)
Closed (1043). Now, here’s one that’s off a bit. Let’s watch this closely…
Expired (233)

And, with total active listings?

6,657 Active Listings Today.

I’m not seeing a notion for alarm here. A picture tells a thousand stories, right? We are still in the swing of things. Here’s my prediction. We will stop seeing double digit appreciation. We will see 5% and less around the metro area. The sky is not falling.

A couple of trends we are seeing. First, buyers are being extremely critical of condition, appeal and location. What would have passed through 6 months ago is becoming a significant point of negotiation in today’s market. Prep your home for sale. Second, pricing with sales from 6 months ago will probably hurt your chances of a quick sale today. Finally, participation with buyers’ interest rates is taking place. #BuyDownsAreBack

Lean on us! That’s why we are here… TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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08/02/2022 #Colorado146 #DenverBoot #DenverParks #CheeseBurger #Colfax

Posted on August 2, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Yesterday was Colorado Day, and the Census says we broke 5.8 million residents.with somewhere near 2.4 million residences. In addition, just over 50% of us have a Bachelor’s Degree. We spent the last week in HipHipOuray, and it displayed its Switzerland-esque mystic in all its glory. Colorado is really special. All I can recommend; Explore…

Let’s jump right into this, and see what happened in Denver Metro’s Single Family Residential Market this week.

Last 10 Years of Denver SFR Market Active Listings

Perspective is always relevant. So, let’s put this market in perspective. Over the last 10 Julys starting backward from 07/2022 Active Inventory Counts have looked like this.

6,433/ 4,504/ 6,830/ 9,989/ 6,477/ 6,702/ 6,855/ 6,907/ 7,674/ 10,578/ 14,146

As you can see, the market has had a greater supply than this year, but only once has the market had lower supply, and that was last year. So, I’ll say it again, “Henny Penny, the sky is not falling”…

Let’s take a closer look over the last 7 days:

New Listing (1492) This is a typical weekly number. Not too high and not too low.
Coming Soon (190)
Back On Market (301) This is higher, but not that much. Deals are falling at a greater rate.
Price Increase (104)
Price Decrease (1909) This is HUGE. Price adjustments may be necessary to generate a market.
Pending (1392) A typical week, but maybe a little low for the season.
Withdrawn (249)
Leased (58)
Closed (1371) A solid week, but probably low for the season.
Expired (398) This is a big number based on a historical average.

Long story short, we are starting to observe New Listings exceed Pending Listings on a weekly basis. Let’s keep eyes on this one.

Long story short, the #BlackSwans of #InterestRates has finally created some erosion in our residential market place. A recent .75% decline will be telling in the week(s) to come.

The Denver Market is not an easy one. Lean on us for advice. We’ll be there for you every step of the way. Homeownership is important!

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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07/18/2022 #5850 #DenverSexRooms #HomeIs #TheThomasHotel #WildHorses

Posted on July 19, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Sorry folks, I missed last week. We traveled to Tyler, Texas for some Southern Hospitality, 100* Days and the opening of The Thomas Hotel. We spent all day on Tuesday in Texas Airports trying to get back to Denver. Oh my, we have a #Conundrum on our hands in the travel biz…

But this morning is different, I’m up early, it’s cool enough to enjoy writing this on my back deck with the antics of a GSP occasionally distracting me. So, please forgive my grammar…

Let’s start off with #HennyPenny; the sky is not falling. At the end of June we had #5850 total Single Family Listings. This number is lower than every single year over the past 10 except one; last year. So, I don’t believe in my heart, Denver has set itself up for failure when it comes to Single Family Residences. If Washington continues to mess around with our futures like we are some sort of #Ragdoll, then I can’t help us. As long as Colorado is left alone, we will be fine. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) can’t even keep their grubby little bureaucratic hands off our wild horses, but don’t let me go down that rabbit hole! Those horses are smart enough to manage themselves.

Here’s a picture of Denver’s Single Family Market over the last 10 years. Looks pretty good to me. And, Netflix has chosen some special homes with special rooms to base their new Adult Entertainment Show right here in Denver Metro. #WhoKnew?

14,283 in 2012 to 5850 in 2022 seems like a pretty healthy market.

Let’s look at last week’s numbers:

New Listing (1750) A good seasonal pace, maybe a bit higher than expected.
Coming Soon (208) This is actually down a bit.
Back On Market (327)
Price Increase (180)
Price Decrease (1888) This is telling. Sellers are getting greedy and need to adjust to the new interest rate paradigm.
Pending (1374) Normal to lower than expected.
Withdrawn (258)
Leased (85)
Closed (1316) Normal to lower than expected.
Expired (251)
I think, the thing to remember here is raising interest rates by 2% in 60 days has had an impact on buyer activity, but a “Cooling Off” period is not a bad thing. All markets experience this event when they’ve been running SO HOT for so long.

The point here is simple. The #FreeMarket is smart. Left alone to make its own decisions, it does quite well. When artificially impacted by outside forces, it is not quite as smart. What we all need to remember is; most of these external events are “transitory”. Administrations change and so do their people. When the people change, the events change; for the good and bad.

As a country, society and people, we have some decisions to make. An overwhelming majority believe it is time for Federal Term Limits. We have them here is Colorado on State and Local levels. I like the turnover. I believe there are more benefits to turnover in the House and Senate than not.

Keep in mind, this market is complicated. We are here for you. From a personal home buyer needs and wants profile to a innovative seller strategy. We’ve been there and done that…tc

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07/05/2022 #OffGrid #RoadTrip #OhCanada #Overland

Posted on July 5, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

For the last 2 weeks, was traveling through Canada via Land Rover in my 2013 LR4, to be exact. We drove to the Arctic Circle! If you don’t like #RoadTriping or as this generation calls it; #Overlanding, #fugetaboutit. It is long, warm, dusty has perpetual daylight and is simply awesome!

As I drove along, the time available to reflect was abundant. I will be dribbling some of my thoughts in the weeks to come, but what’s happened here since I went #OffGrid?

Here’s what happened in the last 7 Days in the Denver Metro Residential Market.

New Listing (1125) Not breaking any records here…
Coming Soon (246) Nor here…
Back On Market (218)
Price Increase (97)
Price Decrease (1099) Now, this is telling. About half of all listings with a price decrease, Withdrawn or expired.
Pending (1188) Not a bad week!
Withdrawn (141)
Leased (73)
Closed (1388) Not a bad week!
Expired (325) Gave up and let it go… This is telling.
With 5,421 Active Listings right now, It is telling when we add up the number of Withdrawn and expired and price decreased listings. There is clearly an Autumn Breeze in the air!

There’s no question, we are drifting toward a more normal market, and who knows, maybe a buyer’s market by next year…

Let’s pay close attention in the coming weeks. We will be here for you every step of the way…tc

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06/21/2022 #Summer2022 #DenverMarketWatch

Posted on June 21, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Like my father told me, “Be brief and be seated”. Well, that’s what I’m going to do today. Follow along…

This chart represents the last 7 days in Denver’s MLS System for the 11 Counties making up the Denver Metropolitan Area.

New Listing (1680) Nice strong seasonal number. No indication of a “Bust” here.
Coming Soon (296) Seems this number keeps creeping up every week.
Back On Market (328) This along with coming soon is a huge change for buyers seeking inventory.
Price Increase (154)
Price Decrease (1444)
Pending (1456) This is a little lower than expected here.
Withdrawn (201)
Leased (68)
Closed (1371) This is not up to seasonal standards here. Are rates finally hitting back?
Expired (159)

The Summer Malaise to which I referenced last week is in full swing. What do you mean Tom? Well, we increased in inventory since the year started from 1,687 active listings to 3,877. But, last week, 1,444 of those active listings had a price decrease, and one of them was ours…

Here’s the whole picture.

As you can see from the chart above, we are following along years past with a seasonal swing in our residential inventory. Still it is nothing like our more “normal” markets, certainly above what we had during the “shortage” earlier this year.

I promised to be brief. If you have any questions at all, you know how to reach us…tc

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06/14/2022 #FlagDay #PoolParties #Hotdogs #Beer #Baseball #HeatWave #LifeGuards

Posted on June 14, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

That’s right, summer is here!!! This is the time when a Buyer’s Eye is distracted by all that’s summer. This is the time when the weather is hot (Who wants to get in the car and look at houses?). This is the time when #SummerMalaise sets in and sellers get a little nervous.

If you think Denver’s Residential Market has drifted away from a Sellers’ Market; read on. Priced appropriately, prepped for the market place, and presented to the market so as to create a sense of urgency, new listings are still going under contract after the first weekend. Please, follow along…

New Listing (1764) Just like last week, we received more New Listings than Pendings. Down below, you’ll also see and increase in Active Listing inventory.
Coming Soon (321) This is a strong number getting ready!
Back On Market (314) Wow, over 300 failed attempts. Sellers need to fix those inspection items in this new market.
Price Increase (163)
Price Decrease (1295) Pricing off of comps with 3.5% interest rates is too aggressive for this market.
Pending (1617) This is a very strong midseason number. It is still a sellers’ market.
Withdrawn (187)
Leased (50)
Closed (1338) This seems to be off a little bit. I would have expected something near 1,500 here.
Expired (121) Sellers giving up?
Denver’s MLS activity over the last 7 days.

As you can see above, Denver’s Sellers’ market is maturing. Buyers are getting a second look at listings, sellers do not always have multiple offers to choose from. “The times they are a changin’…”

Below, let’s look at the total inventory numbers of Active Listings in the 11 counties surrounding and including Denver.

This chart is very telling. Follow along.

This chart tells us of the total active listing inventory over the last 10 years. Take note, at the end of May, 2022 we had 3,719 Active Listings, but at the end of May, 2020 we had 2,851; quite a jump, but still nothing even remotely close to May, 2020 with 7,504 Active Listings. What I’m trying to present here is nothing short of insight. Granted, we have more listings active, but only marginally more and nothing close to two years ago.

LSS, This is a time to reflect on your neighborhood choices if you are a buyer. If you are a seller; Condition, Appeal and Pricing will be critical. As we move forward, none of us know how the market will react to increasing interest rates. The rule of thumb has always been for every point rates go up, 10% of buyers in the market drop off. Are we close to seeing 30% of buyers drop out? Time will tell, time will tell.

We had a listing come on the market this last weekend with two written offers over List Price and north of 20 showings. We had another listing attract only one showing on Saturday and only one showing on Sunday. WE will watch this Bifurcation mature in our market in the weeks to come and report back to you…

Please keep in touch, and will too…tc

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06/07/2022 #HistoryRepeatsItself #HomeOwnershipMatters

Posted on June 7, 2022 by Dee & Tom Cryer

I wrote this on 11/19/2008:

“FACT vs. FEAR
Here are some bullets about our housing market that should dispel some of the myth in the media, the fear of the market, and the speed at which this market could turn around:
· 76,000,000 Homeowners in the USA
· 24,000,000 Of those homes are owned free & clear
· 52,000,000 Have mortgages in place
· 97.2% Are not in foreclosure
· 93.8% Are current
· 20% Owe more than the value of their home
· 40% Of the foreclosures are not owner occupied
· $11.7 Trillion of American’s wealth is in Money Markets, CDs or Treasury Bills
Sounds like a lot of us are hard working, saving, responsible Americans.
What about the GREAT DEPRESSION vs. 2008?
· In 1930 1000 banks failed
· In 2008 14 banks failed
Here are some facts about the residential market in the US of A:
· In the 1970s we averaged 3,000,000 residential transactions per year with a high of 3,900,000
· In the 1980s we averaged 3,300,000 residential transactions per year with a high of 4,000,000
· In the 1990s we averaged 3,900,000 residential transactions per year with a high of 4,900,000
· In the 2000s we averaged 5,600,000 residential transactions per year with a high of 7,200,000
I would argue values in our market were artificially inflated by extremely liberal financing terms. What are your thoughts?
Information obtained from sources believed to be reliable,
but no guarantees are inferred by its publication.“

Remember, the media needs headlines. To get those headlines, it will create catastrophe, disfunction and inequity in order to get ratings. Back then it was to sell papers, but today it’s about getting “page views”. Consider your source…

This blog enjoys 14 years of my opinion, observation and experience. So, where are we today?

New Listing (1743). This is HUGE! Over the last 7 days, we’ve had more New Listings than new Pending! This is an obvious change in the market’s direction.
Coming Soon (343). Once again, this is the highest number I’ve seen this year.
Back On Market (286)
Price Increase (118)
Price Decrease (1056). Wow, are sellers getting anxious?…???
Pending (1595). A nice big seasonal number the market loves to see! Sellers are still getting their due.
Withdrawn (175)
Leased (66)
Closed (1852). Once again, this is a nice big seasonal number reflecting a market with strong demand, It’s a good life.
Expired (254)
Based on the above data, over the last 7 days in Metro Denver, we have made the first step toward a Balanced Market.

Now, let’s look at the numbers on Inventory:

By The Numbers 06/07/2022

One year ago, we had 2,851 Active Listings in the Metro Denver Area. This was clearly a shortage. At the the same time this year we had 3,526 Active Listings and climbing. Prior to Covid in 2018 and clearly a more normal market we had 5,594 Active Listings. Everyone felt 2018’s market was well defined with strong demand and happy. I would argue, the “ship is not sinking”. Denver will weather this change which has been induced by a pond full of “#BlackSwans” and not a structural problem in Denver Demographics. Denver looks good from a “Big Picture View”.

You have a choice. You can choose a brokerage team that is well seasoned, experienced and been in the battle of this market many times, or…tc

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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