06/30/2026 Black Swans Around the Corner?

Every election cycle, things get a little wonky. Apparently, there are no regulations requiring people running for office to be honest. This causes undue anxiety all the way up to November 3rd. It has already started. With today’s graphics, I’ll show you what’s going on.

Next, we have several Black Swans paddling our way, so pay attention. Interest Rates will remain a buyer issue well into 2027. Builders are taking no risks, and as a result, new home inventory will remain lean. Boomers are “aging in place”, so don’t look for resale inventory growth. According to multiple sources, Colorado had a net loss of 18,000 residents last year. One last giant swan paddling its way into our market is affordability. It’s not just the price of homes, but taxes, insurance, regulations, and maintenance/HOA fees. Some condo and townhome fees have risen to exorbitant levels. There are a few swans at the other end of the pond, but we hope they will not swim this way.

Black swan flying above residential area with Denver city skyline and snow-capped mountains
A black swan flies over Denver with snowy mountains at sunset

So let’s jump right into it. This week, Denver’s Single Family MLS looks like this.

Denver’s Market Watch
New Listing (1544) A typical seasonal number.
Coming Soon (104)
Back On Market (296)
Price Increase (94)
Price Decrease (2324) We still can’t get the original list price correct, and the market is punishing us for this flaw.
Pending (1250) Not a bad week, but we can’t brag about this either.
Withdrawn (221)
Leased (0)
Closed (1194) This is a late month week, but it clearly is not carrying the month end surge.
Expired (426) A pretty big number of “let’s take it off the market”.

So, what have we learned? A week like this will clearly add to Total Active Inventory at the beginning of summer malaise.

Now, let’s look at a picture of our active inventory. This is a good news, bad news story. Denver’s SFR supply is almost 20% below last year’s, but as you will see in a moment, absorption is well below last year, too!

This next graphic shows the number of SFR sales over the last 10 years, with 2026 looking like a complete bomb right now. 14,725 by mid-year compared to 2025’s 36,360. We aren’t close to halfway numbers today. We will watch this closely for you. We will report as often as possible. We will be here for your questions.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

Office 303-773-3399

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About Dee & Tom Cryer

Your Trusted Advisors in the Homeownership Business! TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com
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