08/16/2022 #RoseanneRoseannadanna #83Days #ILoveHistory #DenverMarketWatch

“Good Morning Vietnam”! Just an old Robin WIlliams movie, but always a great wake up call… I’m of an age where I was right on the cusp of the draft ending, the war in Vietnam ending and Richard Nixon ending. The reason I bring this up? Over the last year, I have mentioned the age we are in feels, looks, and acts a lot like the ’70s, but far and away, the music was much better then!

#GildaRadner was Roseanne Roseannadanna a character on SNL. Once again, SNL was so much better in the ’70s.

Of course, we are just #83Days until our next election day. Learn about your local election commission’s role in your election balloting process. I spent time with our town’s election commission. I learned a lot.

#ILoveHistory? Well, I have the good fortune to revisit so many books from the past and to be exposed to new works of recent history via Libby (Audio Books for Free). This is good fortune to be able to consume books while multitasking. (Driving) Anyway, you’re probably here to read my take on Denver’s Residential Market. Most weeks, I post pertinent stats on Denver’s Single Family Residential Market. Please subscribe, and follow along…

New Listing (1414) This is not an unusually high number. Seasonally, it might even be considered an average weekly number.
Coming Soon (160)
Back On Market (239)
Price Increase (78)
Price Decrease (1633) Sellers continue to price off the past rather than what’s in the here and now.
Pending (1425) Just a couple of months ago, this was a common occurrence; More Pending each week than New. Is this seasonal or just an anomaly? Only time will tell.

Withdrawn (253)
Leased (70)
Closed (1189) Now, this number is not low, but it is certainly not representative of a typical summer week… Should this continue, the total listing count can only go up!
Expired (230)

So, over the last 7 days, above, we’ve seen an almost identical overlay of the last few weeks, and up from last week’s 6,657 total SFRs Active, this week we have 6,809 Active. Not significant, but clearly moving in the wrong direction for sellers. Please Keep In Mind, exactly 10 years ago, we had 14,146 Active SFR Listings. Let’s see that on a chart.

Active SFR Listings in Denver Metro for the Last 10 Years.

So, what’s my rendition of the true story on Denver’s Market? Follow along please…

  • Interest Rates are up +/-2%. An old rule of thumb is every 1% increase takes 10% of active buyers out of the market. Have we lost 20% of our buyers? Tough to tell on that one, but we have lost a bunch…
  • We have had an unbelievable run in our market. People who purchased 10 years ago have easily doubled there purchase price in most market segments. Of course, we were coming out of the “worst recession since the ‘Great Depression’. When the base is low, it is easy to build on it.
  • For the most part, these things weigh heavily on our market, but I do not believe in any fashion will we face the trauma of 2006-2011…
  • Denver’s Demographics have been perfect for the SFR market. All ages have been buyers. Household formation has been brisk.
  • We continue to rank high on places for seniors to “Age in Place”. That will continue to keep resale inventory lower than some other markets.
  • My Forecast? WE are not going to experience the type of Appreciation sellers have enjoyed, and I don’t see a pathway to serious Depreciation such as we experienced in the last decade. It’s a good life!

In the meantime, lean in on TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

About Tom & Dee Cryer

Your Trusted Advisors in the Homeownership Business! TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com
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