01/28/2025 #January #TheFutureHomeDesigns

Posted on January 28, 2025 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Can you believe it? January is already gone, Bam, gone! 1/12th Gone! This makes me think about the future.

Dee and I have been showing a buyer new homes. After looking closely, we did not observed really significant changes in new home construction, design, and/or features. I will say, however, nothing is really “Wowing Us”. We did not see a single drone-port. How will our groceries be delivered? We did not tour a single new home garage with a pre-wire for an electric car. No clean water treatment solutions, no crack free concrete, and no lifetime roof solutions. Energy solutions were few and far between. Long story short, we are building a new generation of homes, but we are certainly nowhere near the Jetsons’ lifestyle.

So, what happened last week with numbers in our MLS System?

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1138) Considerable increase here. Buyers need to come out and start looking again.
Coming Soon (184) No change here.
Back On Market (222)
Price Increase (106)
Price Decrease (992) This is a nice decrease. Maybe we are getting smarter?
Pending (1103) A nice number here.
Withdrawn (124)
Leased (0)
Closed (646) This data is coming from the Christmas and New Year’s week in December.
Expired (260) This has slowed a bit. Let’s see what happens moving forward.

Jumping right into the Active Inventory an increase of 200 Active Listings over last week.

With just under 200 Active Listings over the last week. Sellers are not being called out into the market yet. Maybe when it warms up a little, and the snow melts sellers will become more active? We will be watching this closely. As fast as 2025 is moving, we are constantly running with this market to keep up. Please tune in next week, and we will be sharing even more.

Don’t forget, you can always reach us at: TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

DMAR Historical Graph Listings and Sales 2008-CurrentDownload
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01/21/2025 #FarOut #Groovy #Stoked

Posted on January 21, 2025 by Dee & Tom Cryer

It is crazy how language changes. I love employing “Far Out” to acknowledge gratitude like, “Thank You.” Today, I used Far Out in conversation with a somewhat younger Autotech working on our car. He had never heard the expression before. I thought back, and realized he had been deprived of life in the 1970s. I wonder what colloquialisms I am missing out on now being an out of touch Boomer. Language changes.

And so, too, does our Denver Metro Residential Market. Let’s take a look.

New Listing (1048) This is a pretty good week for inventory. With temperatures mostly in single digits, this is a strong appearance by sellers!
Coming Soon (193)
Back On Market (176)
Price Increase (180)
Price Decrease (893) A carry-over from 2024, we just can’t seem to get it right the first time.
Pending (1025) A pretty strong week keeping up with new inventory. A very nice healthy sign.
Withdrawn (111)
Leased (0)
Closed (600) Somewhat disturbing here, but remember, this represents what went pending/under contract 30 days ago. That was Christmas Week.
Expired (267) This number keeps falling as we move into 2025.

Overall, not a bad week all things considered, but I will be expecting the number of closings to climb as we move into February.

Now, let’s take a look at the supply side of things. The Total Active Listing right now is 5,841. This is just slightly up from last week, which was 5,749. We will be tracking this closely in the coming weeks and throughout the year. Should we start to see 6 months supply or more, values will start to suffer. We are closing in on this market-wide; outlying areas are already past it, but close-in areas are under it. Our tracking will be very telling in the weeks and months ahead.

In closing today, let’s take solace in the good surrounding our market. First, at 7% interest rates, we still have a market, and it is quite healthy. Second, Colorado has seen its population growth taper off, and we still have a healthy market. Finally, as reported by our MLS System, we have a few more data points leading into 2025.

What to Watch in 2025

“As we move into 2025, the Denver metro area housing market appears well-positioned to offer expanded opportunities for buyers. With a larger pool of active listings and steady home prices, potential homeowners will benefit from greater choices, particularly in key counties like Denver and Arapahoe. Meanwhile, rental inventory constraints may continue to drive interest in purchasing, creating a dynamic and engaging market landscape. Stay tuned to REcolorado for the latest updates and insights as we navigate the year ahead together.“

Let’s keep in touch: TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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01/14/2025 #Greenland #Canada #Colorado

Posted on January 14, 2025 by Dee & Tom Cryer

As Bob Dylan sings, “...the times, they are a-changin‘”. What if you fell asleep, and then you woke up, and the US had become the largest land mass of any country in the world. These days, stranger things could happen. For me, however, right now, private ownership of real estate in Greenland does not exist. So, forget that summer cabin on the coast!

Now, Canada is a different story. I’ve been thinking about this quite a bit. The US could benefit Canada, and Canada could benefit the US. Interesting, isn’t it? All that King and Queen of England stuff would cause me some dis-consternation, but they’d get over it, I think…

But seriously, folks, Colorado is front and center right now. The national news has not been the best. I believe the pendulum will swing in a positive direction. In the meantime, we see both at the state level and the local level positive population growth and job growth. I believe this will continue, and I believe, we will see our diverse residents working together. Always the optimist, I continue to see healthy residential markets near the Central Business District, in our distant suburbs, and everywhere in between. Appropriate pricing, positive reaction to feedback, and constant communication will continue to be the most significant factors in every transaction.

What’s happening in the Denver SFR MLS this week?

New Listing (1082) A slight bump over last week, but this will not give buyers the choices they want!
Coming Soon (157)
Back On Market (231) If these listings are arriving as a result of the post-holiday withdrawals, hopefully, they will have a better price and appeal.
Price Increase (153)
Price Decrease (1264)
Pending (987) This number has grown from last week, and I would expect it to be over 1,000 by next week.
Withdrawn (133)
Leased (0)
Closed (654) A very, very slow week. This number would populate from transactions in early to mid-December 2024, so it is probably in line with expectations.
Expired (314) Will these be coming back with a new Listing Broker? These could add to the supply very quickly!

With the number of active listings bouncing around between 4,000 to 6,000, buyers still return home with the properties they want to buy hiding from them. Note to Sellers, with interest rates hovering right now around 7%, this is no time to test the upper limit of a property’s market acceptance. Buyers always want last years prices, and sellers will always want next year’s prices. This market requires a bit more nuance when pricing to hit the market target.

Not unlike weeks past, the number of active listings continues the curve toward lower numbers of listings, this will change in the next few weeks. Look for the line on the right hand side of this graph to turn up as soon as next week!

Today, we have a market with 5,749 Active SFR Listings. This is just +/- 200 more than last week. I expect a pretty large jump by the end of January. Stay tuned for a review of my 2025 Crystal Ball. It hasn’t let me down so far this year. Hahaha…

In the meantime, I will repeat my closing remarks from last week. Dee and I have several new listings coming up this month and into the first quarter of 2025. We also have several active buyers not finding their dream home. Let’s connect and make it happen for you in 2025.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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01/07/2025 What We Know and What We Don’t

Posted on January 7, 2025 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Everyone,

Do you have one year of experience 20 times, or do you have 20 years of experience?

Let’s look at Denver’s SFR Market quickly:

January 2015 to the end of December 2024, the total number of active SFRs in the Denver Metro MLS system was; 4,092, 4,005, 3,687, 3,370, 4,552, 3,800, 1,718, 1,796, 4,335, 4,828, 5,598. We are starting 2025 with more inventory than we’ve had in the last 10 years. This sounds terrible, but when compared to 2008 through 2012, 5,598 is nothing to worry about, but it is important. Whenever buyers have more choices, the balance swings toward a buyers’ market. When observed graphically, the market challenge of oversupply is not nearly as commanding as first thought. The substantial drop in inventory in the last couple of months in 2024 lead us toward a more favorable balance.

We can not call this current level of inventory an oversupply, but we will watch this closely throughout 2025..

As for 2025, Dee has some terrific listings coming up in Q125. Let us know what’s on your list. We can find it for you…

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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Merry Christmas!

Posted on December 25, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/15quE6nW55/?mibextid=WC7FNe

And, to all a good night…

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12/17/2024 Christmas Good Tidings So Long 2024

Posted on December 17, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

This will be our last post of #2024. It has been a great year for us. We were blessed with Louie James Cryer in October. #5 Grandchild, it never gets old. Two sixes, two threes, and now a less than one. This will make it a very special Christmas when we get together.

As for 2024, we had many headwinds. We had higher rates than buyers like. We had the election. We had wars, we had urban crisis, and we had slowing job growth along the front-range. In spite of the headwinds, we had a listing over $3M and a buyer over $3M. On the other end, we had a buyer at $425K in new construction. Finally, we had a seller of a one bedroom condo at $240K. So, we covered the gambit this year, and a fine year it was.

What happened this week in our MLS report? Let’s take a look.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (620) This is a low count, but typical of this season.
Coming Soon (34)
Back On Market (164)
Price Increase (89)
Price Decrease (1128)
Pending (909) Not a bad week for this season, but not anywhere near a strong week during mid-year.
Withdrawn (203)
Leased (0)
Closed (893) Not a bad week, more than expected. This could be a start for 2025!
Expired (504)

Overall, this is not a bad week. 2025 has some momentum based on this. Of course, we have to wait and see, but it will not be long now. In just a few weeks, we will understand how things will be going for 2025.

Let’s delve right into how Active Listings look for year-end.

The graph’s rounding of total active listings is clear and as predicted a few months ago. Today, we are reporting just 7,353 total active listings. We haven’t seen a number this low since April 2024.

My prediction is well supported. We will have more buyers than sellers during the first quarter of 2025. Rates will keep the market calm as we settle into a new President. My guess on rates will keep them above 5.5% for the duration of 2025, but over 6% is more likely.

In the meantime, Dee is already building the 2025 pipeline of buyers and sellers. If you are looking for something special, she may already have it waiting for you!

Contact TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

May God bless you and your family in the coming year, and may Santa deliver on that special wish, Merry Christmas…tc

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12/03/2024 #HoHoHo #How’sYourChimney #TheLayeringEffect

Posted on December 3, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

We will have more to discuss below, but the Holiday Season has been and will be in full swing.

We see buyers more critical than ever on condition, appeal, and maintenance issues. As a seller, you can not run with the Three P’s. (Put it in MLS, Put in a sign, Pray) This market is demanding more than I have ever experienced. Buyers have seasoned inspectors, buyers are asking for follow-up reports, and buyers are walking away unless the seller complies. As a seller, you can no longer go, HoHoHo, to the bank. Buyers are finding every hidden defect. Eyes wide open, if you will. Your chimney needs to be as clean as your kitchen floor.

So what’s happening in the Denver Market this week? We are seeing the “layering effect” impact sellers, too. It’s no longer the picky little details from an inspection, it’s the compiling of those issues. Just like a cake, the driveway with the spalling concrete is no big deal, but the layer of old windows, the floor plan, site size, location, and neighborhood feel creates price resistance. Often overlooked initially, after a dozen or more showings, the feedback quickly exposes the layering effect. In my humble opinion, the only way to overcome the Layering Effect is via price. Some layers can’t be change because they are external or non-economic to change. Thus, the List Price is a seller’s only weapon.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (437) Clearly less than half of last week. “Let’s wait until the new year.”
Coming Soon (73) It’s not happening!
Back On Market (178)
Price Increase (98)
Price Decrease (782) A third of last week’s number.
Pending (809) Not bad, but still well below a typical week.
Withdrawn (207) Giving up for 2024…
Leased (0)
Closed (816) Not a bad week, but 20% below what has been typical.
Expired (825) This is clearly the show of the holiday season. Let’s try again at some later date.

The advice here is straightforward. As a buyer, if you are interested in a property, stay with it. The seller, still on the market, is looking for something in writing. If you are a seller, you can’t under-price your property. The market is active enough to bring multiple offers if you are priced at or slightly below market. The rule of thumb for Active Listings is, if you aren’t getting showings, you are 10% too high. If you are getting showings but no offers, you are 5% too high. I can’t tell you how many times this has proved true. So, buyers, keep hunting for that tipping point. Sellers, don’t give up, this is the time of year where you will have the least competition. “Don’t give up”… as Peter Gabriel sings…

Let’s look now to the Total Active Listings.

As posted a couple of months back, I wrote. “Soon, the supply of Active Listings will round off the top of the graph and show a significant decline.” Well, here we are! With just 7,075 Active Listings, we’ve rounded the top with a total active supply lower than May 2024. More support for my hypotheses above. Don’t give up!

As we close out 2024, we plan to continue our posts with relevant stories about the Denver Marketplace. We hope you are interested in what we have to say. Please feel free to put up questions, and we will work to source the answers.

Don’t Hesitate: TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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11/26/2024 #Disintermediation

Posted on November 26, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

With a word this long, we don’t need anything else on the title line. I first heard the word Disintermediation back in the 1980s. It was employed to frame the collapse of the Savings and Loan Business. Everyone was racing to take their money out of the corner S&L and move it to safer environs. We are experiencing a tsunami of #Disintermediation. It’s based in our information, reporting, news and their source material. If one source is owned by Besos, and another owned by Musk, who are you going to follow or believe. I’ve wondered this for years, myself. Here’s exactly my formula.

I am an X user. If I want to hear from the Mayor of Denver, I follow Mike Johnson. If I want to hear from Joe Biden, I follow Joe. This eliminates the intermediary. Source news can then be objectively followed to a conclusion of truth or untruth. Along with this, I may follow supporting characters along the way. By reading a “hit” piece in the WSJ, you’re getting something that has been edited for “clicks” at least 3 times. My method is like drinking from the spring. The WSJ way is getting it with fluoride from the water district.

Ladies and gentlemen, reading OUR weekly posts is like getting Denver Real Estate News straight from the source. There has been no editing here. Now, let’s see what happened this week.

Over the last 7 days in Denver’s Residential Single Family Marketplace, this is what’s happened!

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (837) Seasonally correct answer here. Not too many.
Coming Soon (47) Way down from previous weeks.
Back On Market (249)
Price Increase (117)
Price Decrease (1262) This number is getting better.
Pending (1148) Not a bad week. I could argue even a little strength for the season.
Withdrawn (254)
Leased (0)
Closed (1043) Over 1,000 is a good week this time of year. Everyone wants to get home for Thanksgiving!
Expired (403) The sellers giving up is higher than normal, but it is not seasonally atypical.

It wasn’t a bad week. Let’s keep it going into 2025, OK! Let’s see what has happened to the number of Total Active Listings below.

With just 9,006 Active Listings this morning, it is clear the market has reached its peak for 2024, and the number of Active Listings will be falling from here through the end of the year. It might be a good time for a buyer to find a “shopworn” listing at a lower price. The seller might just want out! On the other hand, it could be a very good time for a seller to come on the market right now to be the shiney new listing in the shopworn marketplace. It’s your choice!

As 2024 winds down to days rather than months, we have a few good things happening. The stock market is enjoying a “Trump Bump”, Crypto is running wild, and inflation is subsiding. On the other hand, mortgage rates are not falling, and income is not rising. These are the key factors for a home buyer. We still face the seller with a 3% mortgage. That seller is not giving up that rate for today’s 7% rates, thus inventory will stay at reasonable levels. The Conundrum Lives On!

As always, you can contact Dee at TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

Happy Thanksgiving! Get outside and enjoy life!

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11/19/2024 #Zillow #NAR #LocalMLS

Posted on November 19, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

It’s commonly cited throughout business publications, “Never let a good catastrophe go unexploited”. Due to the settlement battle still unresolved between Realtors and the class action law suits, it has caused consternation between local boards of Realtors, MLS systems, the National Association of Realtors, and who is standing by the side waiting to pounce in my humble opinion? That’s right, it is Zillow. Over the last few years, I have yet to be with an active buyer without the Zillow App on their smartphone. By not syndicating one’s listings to Zillow it hurts one’s Seller. Their market reach is deep.

The expression comes to mind, “Careful what you ask for….”. We ultimately have a system that nobody asked for, but due to unintended consequences, is just around the corner. “Keep your eyes on the road and hands upon the wheel”, and we will keep you informed along the way. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com We will be there for you!

What’s happened this week in Denver’s Residential Marketplace?

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (920) A typical week, not bad.
Coming Soon (87)
Back On Market (267)
Price Increase (331)
Price Decrease (2065) The market continues to adjust more quickly than the experts.
Pending (1252) A strong week, good activity!
Withdrawn (301)
Leased (0)
Closed (1059) Also, a good week, more than expected!
Expired (428)

So, as we roll into fall with full force and our first snowstorm, it is important to note here, we are seeing a Trump Bump. Showings are up. Under Contracts are up. It’s too soon to tell if Closings will be up. Once again, Zillow’s algorithm has turned positive in the Zip Codes I follow. Zillow is predicted values in Denver will be positive over the next 12 months.

What does our total supply look like?

Once again, we are reporting a decline in the total number of Active Listings Week over Week. This helps stabilize values. Good things are happening in this market over the last 2 weeks.

We will be there with you every step of the way. Please do not hesitate to lean in on our experience. Let’s make our plans now for 2025!

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11/12/2024 #TheTrillofVictoryandTheAgonyofDefeat

Posted on November 12, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

When The Trill of Victory and the Agony of Defeat was written into ABC Sports, who knew it would live on in infamy? The election is over, but the real fight is only just beginning. The way residential real estate transactions take place has been changed. In the meantime, it is still being fought in court, so who knows how all this will end up. WE are here to answer those questions.

For the most part, the electorate has shown the differential between the Big City vs. the Suburban and Rural voters. Did COVID move so many urban voters to a new generation of suburban and rural voter strength? This map tends to confirm this.

Anyway, let’s move right into the market over the last 7 days.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (803) Not much happened over the last 7 days.
Coming Soon (96) This is very low!
Back On Market (214)
Price Increase (75)
Price Decrease (1723)
Pending (969) A relatively slow week here too!
Withdrawn (200)
Leased (0)
Closed (797) Not atypical, but probably associated with the long weekend and the election.
Expired (353) Let’s give up and try next year?

It’s always difficult to determine what makes the market react a certain way. We will no more in the weeks to come. Don’t stop tuning in each and every week to see what happens next. During this window of time, we had a lot of snowy weather.

What has happened to the number of Total Active Listings in the Denver Metro Area?

Another week, another decline in Total Active Listings of Single Family Homes. Not much of a drop, but it’s down to 8,746. When buyers are in shorter supply this time of year, it is great to have fewer choices. The market builds strength or weakness from Supply and Demand ratios.

In the meantime, if you want to talk about the Election, the Market, CU going to a bowl game, or why won’t the Monforts sell the Rockies to a winning owner, we are here for you.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

PS… We put one under contract last night. We called our Inspector for an appointment time. He is booked out with “two a days” for the next week. The winds are changing…tc

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