11/05/2024 #11/03/2020 #Election #Consumed

Posted on November 5, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Almost 4 years ago to the day, we were sitting, standing, driving or walking in this exact same place as we were then. Rival political parties spent months pandering to our needs and wants in an election process which IMHO is so last century. But, I digress. This election like all elections is the “most important ever”. I guess we will know if it was or not in exactly 4 more years.

All the hoopla surrounding the election, however, has consumed real estate buyers and sellers. Do I buy, sell, or wait it out? Surely rates will be lower and the market will be better next year. Dee and I were married in April of 1982. In October of the previous year rates hit their all time high at over 18%. We had assumptions, buy-downs, subsidies and more. Any ingenious idea that could get a buyer into a house or a seller out of one stood out in the marketplace. Over the next 10 years in Denver, not a lot happened. We saw a steady but very slow decline interest rates. In 1990, we were down to 10%. Homes were purchased and sold, but the market was very volatile. Residential Markets will continue to ebb and flow, they always do. You heard me say this before, but it does seem different this time. I’m trying to put my finger on it…

We are no better at holding elections this time around than we were 40 years ago. I expect more. We all should!

Enough of that, what happened in the Denver Residential Market over the last 7 days?

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (928) The seasonal trend of fewer listings each week is in place!
Coming Soon (111)
Back On Market (283)
Price Increase (461)
Price Decrease (1287) Fewer listings, Fewer price reductions!
Pending (1066) Not a bad week for this time of year!
Withdrawn (246)
Leased (0)
Closed (1253) This is a very strong week.
Expired (818) More and more sellers are giving up for 2024.

Now, what has this weekly trend done to the aggregate numbers? Let’s see!

With a total of 9,338 Active Listings last week, this week we are reporting 8,585 this week over 750 fewer active listings than the previous week. This is a huge seasonal correction in just one week. As I had reported in previous weeks, we will see the seasonal swing of fewer active listings as we close out 2024. I called it “rounding off” a few weeks ago.

As I continue growing my Real Santa Beard, we are a few days short of 50 for it to completely fill in for pictures. For the people who have seen this event before, they believe I am well on my way to authenticity! What do you think? Will I make it?

AS you make your real estate decisions today, think about your plan for 2025. We are able to connect you will like minded brokers in over 100 markets across the globe. Over the years, we have referred clients to residential experts. Let us know if we can help. It’s always nice knowing there is a warm hand waiting for you.

TheCryerTeam@kentwood.com

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10/29/2024 #What’sNext

Posted on October 29, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Fall is here! We’ve had our first snow in the mountains, and at least one or two ski mountains have carried some visitors to the top for a run. The leaves have changed, and now they are carpeting the streets with golden and red. and yellow medallions. It’s an exciting season.

Everyone is asking me, What’s Next? I have an opinion for you. Let’s start at the top. The US has an ocean of debt. These high rates are making that debt very expensive. If somehow, the FED is able to reduce the rates, then foreign monies might search for other investments rather than US Dollars. It is the proverbial “Catch-22”. The high rates sell dollars, but it also increases the cost of being a debtor.

Next, in one week, we will vote for a new president. The mainstream media would have you believe we are more divided than ever. We sell and list houses for all types of people. Every one of them has concern for the same things. Safe streets, good schools, employment, and access to the things of daily life. These likes concern everyone. In national rankings, when media outlets are ranked below Congress, we are all fighting for the truth. We are all finding our own source, and this may be where the “divide” originates. Who knows, but next week, we will have another seasonal change.

Buyers and Sellers continue to have the same questions. Should I wait until spring? “Rates will be better, supply will be better,” We don’t know that. I can tell you from a historical perspective that over the last 10 years, we have had voracious spring marketing numbers. But, we have had fall seasons with very low inventory, where buyers and sellers have done very well. Thus, the conundrum we discussed in our newsletter last week.

Let’s not dwell on the unknown anymore this morning and look at last weeks MLS numbers for the 11 counties making up the Denver Market Watch.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1058) Not a bad number here. Well down from its weekly peak.
Coming Soon (119)
Back On Market (292)
Price Increase (81)
Price Decrease (1881) This is still frustrating the industry. Why can’t we get it right the first time?
Pending (1111) Not a bad week. Covering New Listings is always a good thing.
Withdrawn (242)
Leased (0)
Closed (1038) Not a bad week either, but we keep seeing the “Crashed Deals” not making it to Closing. Inspections, Loans, Appraisals, etc. are the root causes.
Expired (361)

Let’s jump ahead to the Total Active Listings over the last 10 years. How does this market look in comparison?

We can see the Total Active Listings leveling off for the holidays. It will be interesting to see the results of this election, what it does to rates, how it affects buyer and seller optimism, and last but not least, how it will affect Colorado and, more specifically, the Denver Metro Area. By following us on a weekly basis by subscribing to MyTownCryer, almost every tuesday morning you will get our answers to your questoins.

Please keep in touch at TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

“Overpricing today is a stale listing tomorrow.”

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10/22/2024 #Opinions

Posted on October 22, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Everybody has a correct opinion, but does everyone have a wrong opinion? During election season, we can get caught up in the ads, the rhetoric, the personalities, and, of course, the candidates. People who grew up in South Dakota will look at the world through a different lens than the people living in New York City. My personal opinion revolves around homeownership. When communities have a high percentage of homeownership, they tend to be safer, enjoy schools with higher scores, have greater household wealth, and are more involved in elections. The opposite side of the coin tells me a renter has greater mobility.

Either way, is one opinion right and the other opinion wrong? This is the reason it takes two teams to have a game, two opinions to hold court, and many reasons to distill down to an election. I could go on and on and on, but let’s look into the market over the last week or so.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1111) Not as big a jump as last week, but still moving more toward the buyer than the seller.
Coming Soon (115)
Back On Market (289)
Price Increase (97)
Price Decrease (1808) This is down a good bit from last weeks report, but still very high.
Pending (1233) Not a bad week for clearing off the inventory. Advantage seller!
Withdrawn (261) Holidays?
Leased (0)
Closed (991) I always like this number to be over 1,000. We are close, but not over.
Expired (396) Holidays?

We continue to observe a rounding at the top of SFR inventory from this chart. From last week, we were actually down by a couple hundred Active Listings over the previous week. This should flatten and decline as we close 2024. Single-family inventory drives the residential market, and this is why we watch it very closely.

Moving to another subject, if you have residential real estate plans for 2025, this is the ideal plan to take an hour, sit down with us and discuss the formation of a plan. The new year will be upon us very quickly, and the more definitive your plan, the more likely it will unfold positively. After many years in the business, this market is all about timing, timing, timing.

We’ll see you soon! TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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10/15/2024 #TheModernEra 1945-Today

Posted on October 15, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Did you know? Yes, we are still in The Modern Era, however, watching the evening news, it seems like we are “cavemen and women” with electricity. I follow a Handle on X known as @DoBetterDenver. It is very informative. If you are curious about behind-the-scenes in Denver, it is for you!

This week in our Denver Metro MLS Area of Single Family Homes looks like this,

Denver Market Watch – Last 7 Days
New Listing (1351) This is a typical week, not too high, but not low either.
Coming Soon (115)
Back On Market (241)
Price Increase (145)
Price Decrease (2225) Wow, this is a huge number of price reductions!
Pending (1096) This is an average week. With all the new listings and all the price reductions, I would have expected more, but it was a three day weekend.
Withdrawn (182)
Leased (0)
Closed (876) This is below average. Below, you will see and increase in total Active Listings.
Expired (401)

So, what were the total number of Active Listings this week?

Let me give you some perspective in October from years past to now. 10/20 – 3,253 Active Listings. 10/21 – 3,846 and 10/22 – 7,381 and 10/23 – 7,190 and finally, 10/24 – 9,123. Should you be worried. If you are a seller, you missed the peak opportunity with the least competition and the lowest interest rates. If you are a buyer, you are in the best market with the most choice in the last 5 years. Granted, rates are higher, prices are higher, and the cost of ownership reflects this.

Taking all this into consideration, every month, we list properties for sale, and every month, buyers come along and buy them. The truth of the matter is simple. Every buyer and every seller have unique and personal wants and needs. This makes a market, and we have experienced even in the worst of our markets, Single Family Residential Properties have always had a market, Higher, Lower, and Staying the same, the Market will survive us all…

In the meantime, we know the world of residential ownership is complicated. Whether you are on the Sell Side or the Buy Side, you might need or want a little help. We are here for you. We’re here for you at TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com.

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10/01/2024 #DenverMarketWatch #HomeOwnership

Posted on October 1, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

I will write about the Denver Market today and follow up with Homeownership. Both subjects deserve our attention this morning.

Over the last week, the numbers have looked like this.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1306) More than last week, but nothing to be fearful over.
Coming Soon (161)
Back On Market (307)
Price Increase (135)
Price Decrease (2060) The market is smart. It seeks value. This has required sellers to be realistic.
Pending (1262) Not a bad number, but it is barely keeping up with New Listings.
Withdrawn (200)
Leased (0)
Closed (1240) Well better than last week reflecting the nuisance of lower rates!
Expired (705) This could be a seasonal move here. “Let’s just wait till…”, as so often happens.

Once again, the long story short, the market is telling us it is shifting away from a Sellers’ market to a more balanced market with signs of supply issues in some of our third tear markets where New Home Builder Inventory is pervasive. Primary market inventory is in short supply and, when available, is being absorbed quickly. As we’ve seen many times in the past, bifurcated markets often result during a period of slow change. This trend will continue. Builders have a hold in our perimeter markets, they can control rates, price and inventory with great alactrity compared to an individual resale homeowner in the same market.

Here’s what’s happened to Total Active Listings.

As in past years, we are seeing the seasonal rounding indicating we have most likely seen the top of the supply level for 2024 now down almost 300 active listings from last week. I’m going to take this as a positive sign for the Denver Market.

I have lived in 7 homes I’ve owned. Of those 7, Dee and I have lived in 3 we’ve owned together. Homeownership should be a university course. So much is learned from it. I can’t think of anything as an adult that will create a path toward maturity any quicker than homeownership. Paying bills, budgeting, becoming a part of the community, city, state, and, if your community has one, the HOA.

Homeownership creates secure families, community attachment, and “skin in the game.” Neighborhoods with the highest percentages of non-owner occupants have the most turnover, lower-performing schools, a greater propensity for crime, and a visible lack of exterior maintenance and repair.

Conversely, neighborhoods with a high percentage of owner-occupancy enjoy the opposite. Low turnover, high-performing schools, lower crime, higher voter turnout, and a high degree of pride of ownership. Surprisingly or not, retail services, employment centers and recreational opportunities tend to be nearby as well maintained. Infact, during our Real Estate Depresion in Denver during the 1980s, we found communities with a neighborhood elementary school, HOA Amenities, open space, nearby shopping and employment centers had the lowest level of price depreciation. Is it any wonder how important Homeownership is?

The end of this story is so telling. The last home Dee and I bought together is the home where I am writing this post today. After 32 years, we love our house and our community. the nearby recreation, employment centers, shopping, and schools. We worked with the builder and made several significant changes. As a result, it still suits us to a T-Pa if you catch my drift.

We’d love to hear your experiences. We are homeownership advocates. Let’s make your homeownership a reality.

Let’s talk soon TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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09/24/2024 #BestoftheBest #Centennial

Posted on September 24, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Denver,

Every month, I get a newsletter from the City of Centennial, where I live. This month, the newsletter declares, “We are the best of the best.” We were incorporated from Arapahoe County to Centennial on or about the year 2000. Centennial has no debt. It pays its bills promptly. It has several smaller “town centers” and an award-winning Center Park. Emergency Response has been outsourced. Public Works has been outsourced. Most parks and recreation has been outsourced. I’m here to tell you, Privatization works and saves money. This has been going on for 25 years now. It is successful, and it makes me proud. I’ve served on the Senior Commision, the Election Commission, and hope one day to serve on others. When one is proud of something, it is easy to get involved and hopefully even make it better. All I can say is get involved in your community. Please get involved,

On another note, Dee and I welcomed our 5th grandchild into the family last week. Louie James and Momma all doing very well. WE have been blessed again!

Denver’s Weekly Market Watch

New Listing
1421 Less than last week and the week before; seasonal?
Coming Soon
160
Back On Market
307
Price Increase
121
Price Decrease
2084 This is still too high. Buyers are getting very critical.
Pending
1285 This is a pretty good week. Rates have allowed a few buyers to jump in!
Withdrawn
197
Leased
0
Closed
927 This is not a great week. Closings are not keeping up with new listings.
Expired
314

Well, another week has gone by. Although we continue to see fewer closings than I would like to see, if we can stay close to the 1,000/week rate, I believe after the first of the year, we will see a spring market like we’ve lived before.

Total Active Listings 09/2024

We are experiencing an expansion of our market. From early in the year, with slightly more than 4,000 active listings, to September, we now have 9,027 Active Listings. If this growth were to continue for another year, we would be in a market of oversupply. I doubt this will happen. It is my belief as soon as the Election is behind us, we will again work toward a seller bias in the marketplace.

I am not predicting or forecasting a market collapse in any way, shape, or form. I am anticipating an unusual seasonal increase in supply through the election. We see potential buyers and sellers on both sides of the political spectrum in a “wait-and-see mode.”

Just think if our Federal Government handled their affairs like Centennial? Is it possible to deal with 330,000,000 like we deal with 129,000 people here? I believe, it at least gives one pause for thought.

We’ll be back next week with more ideas and thoughts. In the meantime, if you are ever questioning your path of homeownership, please give us a call, text, email or smoke signal.

TheCryerTeam@kentwood.com

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09/17/2024 #HarvestMoon

Posted on September 17, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

The moon last night was almost like a sunrise. It lit everything up even before it was above the trees!

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1391) Well back from last week. Is this seasonal already?
Coming Soon (200)
Back On Market (274)
Price Increase (89)
Price Decrease (1986) Still not getting it right from the start!
Pending (1246) Not a bad week, but nothing spectacular here.
Withdrawn (185)
Leased (0)
Closed (944) This 900 +/- number seems to be repeating itself week after week.
Expired (323)

Over the last 7 days, we have not had a significant change from the previous few weeks except, the growth of New Listings is stabilizing as opposed to increasing in great numbers each week as we saw earlier in the year. This is a good sign as we drift into a pre-fall season. So, no one should be singing, “Henny Penny the Sky is Falling”.

It is a similar story for Total Active Listings, we are consistently staying under 9K. Consistent numbers are a good thing in a market facing new headwinds almost every week. Fortunately, we had a rate decline this week. Buyers rushed in to help clear some new inventory. I’d like the Fed to announce at least a .25 to a .50 rate decline. Wouldn’t you?

We’ll see you next week with a Hunter’s Moon… TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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Testimonial Tuesday

Posted on September 10, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer
Thank You!

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09/10/2024 #60Days #Election2024

Posted on September 10, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Everyone,

Below you will find the August Infographic.

Below you will find my quick chart on the last 7 days in Denver.

Denver Metro Market Watch

New Listing
1500 This is noticeably higher from recent weeks.
Coming Soon
173
Back On Market
319
Price Increase
155
Price Decrease
2098 This is the highest number of weekly Price Reductions I’ve seen! It’s tough out there.
Pending
1355 Not a bad week, but certainly not keeping up with the New Listings.
Withdrawn
202
Leased
0
Closed
979 In line with recent weeks, but with the dip in rates, I would have expected more.
Expired
308

What is this telling us? The short of it is, supply is growing an demand remains level. This is not healthy in the long term.

Below, you will see the number of Active Listings available now.

We are seeing an increase in supply over May’s Report of 8,154, but a decline over June which was 8,976, and a decline over July which was 9,084 to a current level of 8,735 in late August. We now have definitive data telling us “the sky is not falling”. We will see a slow value erosion in the 1-2% range through the end of 2024. 2024 With lower rates should see this turn around to a 1-2% increase in Q1-2024.

With all this said, the waters are uncertain in the short term. Don’t change that channel, we will be back again next week sharing, caring, and preparing another MyTownCryer Newsletter just for you.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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08/27/2024 #TheElection

Posted on August 27, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Discussing Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness with a list of clients over the last few days, without exception, #TheElection was the #1 factor affecting their home purchase decision. “If this person gets elected, I will spend less, if this person gets elected, I might spend more.” The conundrum wrapped in a riddle surrounded by an enigma will be with us for at least the next 70 days, and then the fallout will carry over. The cost of freedom is not inexpensive!

I was traveling last week. I conversed with participants from 23 states. Overall, it’s a good life. Let’s get right into the Denver Metro Market update.

Please look at the chart below to get an inference into what’s been happening for the last 7 days.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1317) This is a solid week. Good supply numbers for buyers.
Coming Soon (97)
Back On Market (265)
Price Increase (316)
Price Decrease (1803) This is a critical sign. Brokers are not anticipating their listing’s potential.
Pending (1267) Not a bad week, but nothing here to skew the market trend.
Withdrawn (206)
Leased (0)
Closed (1014) Better than past weeks, and a sign of life here. I like it!
Expired (313)

On a grander scale, this is nothing inflammatory here. Solid numbers albeit nothing earth-shaking, but something to build on as we move into the fall season with an election on our backs.

Let’s turn the tables just a little bit and see what the Total Number of Active Listings has been doing.

After a slight pause in July, we have returned to a slowly increasing level of Active Listings. Although just a few hundred each week, at the end of August, we have twice as many Active Listings on the market today than in January 2024. Troubling yes, and burdensome, but this is nowhere near the numbers from the Housing Bubble of 2008-2012. We will see sold price statistics fall by 1 or 2% by years end. Should we gain access to interest rates under 6%, prices will stabilize, and if it nears 5% for fixed rates, we will see prices increase to some degree. I digress, the public sentiment coming out of the other side of the election will be the most impactful for the rest of 2024.

We are out there every day, gauging the market’s strengths and weaknesses. Lean in on us, get our scoop, and gain strength in the marketplace from the knowledge we can’t wait to share. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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