07/30/2024 #ByLaws #Election2024 #MyTownCryer

Posted on July 30, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

In preparation for the final settlement between NAR, local boards, and the “consumer”, my local board voted yesterday to divest itself from ownership in our MLS system known as REColorado. Ultimately, this step will create a firewall between our local board, brokers, and consumers. It is supposed to make the playing field more “fair”. This will bring up many questions, and as we move closer to the 08/17/2024 settlement date, more will transpire. We’ll keep you posted.

“The real issue might just be the election. We’ve talked to so many homebuyers who say they’re going to wait to see what happens in this election. It is gripping the national psyche, as you may have heard.”

We’ve had many elections throughout my career. Sometimes, “my team” has won, and sometimes the “other team” wins. In all instances, I awoke the next morning and went about my business. The feeling this election year has is different. It is my prediction, the 2024 Election will bottle up customer purchasing decisions until late in the 4th quarter of 2024. Uncertainty does not lend itself to home purchase decisions. We will keep you posted.

A little history lesson. I started writing by creating blog posts about the Denver Residential Market on November 11th, 2008. It was a story about the transition in leadership at #WorldwideERC. It had been 36 years since a leadership change took place. In the last 16 years, Mobility leadership and Mobility has changed routinely and dramatically. My gratitude for being part of those early days of Employee Relocation is immense. Thank You #WorldwideERC.

So What’s Happened in the last 7 days in Denver’s SFR Market?

Market Watch
New Listing (804) Still an unseasonable low number of new listings.
Coming Soon (137)
Back On Market (190)
Price Increase (65)
Price Decrease (1317) As Brokers, we just can’t get this right!
Pending (846) This is a low number, but still in excess of the New Listing Count.
Withdrawn (145)
Leased (0)
Closed (717) A low number, showing now energy in the marketplace.
Expired (155)

Almost to be expected with no energy in the last week, it will be interesting to look at our next number of Total Active Listings.

The relatively small Active Inventory Growth of just 84 additional listings this week, it appears the growth from January at 4,731 Active Listings to today’s 8,735 indicates the worst is behind us for 2024.

What is the strategy to play on right here and now? Buyers are going to be lazy. They are not seeing the type of inventory they want to buy, because our sellers are sitting on the sidelines, because the inventory they want is not available, and they don’t want to give up that 3% mortgage with +/-26 years still remaining.

So, what’s the strategy? Buyers, if you have all your “ducks in a row”, this is the time to stand tall and ready with one foot in the market. Be ready to pounce, when the home you want comes on the market. The good ones are still going fast. Sellers, have a clear path to your end game. Why are you moving, where are you moving, and when do you want to be there. If Buyers and Sellers would buy into this, we would have a market everyone could enjoy.

Along the way, we will be there for you. Let’s talk, Let’s construct a plan, and let’s be bold!

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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07/23/2024 #BraveNewWorld

Posted on July 23, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Let’s get right into this morning. This week’s MLS activity looks a little different.

Market Watch
New Listing (931) This is a nice break from the last several weeks.
Coming Soon (124)
Back On Market (184)
Price Increase (65)
Price Decrease (1496) We continue to not see this market very clearly.
Pending (900) Not a bad week with UC, but still slow in comparison.
Withdrawn (124)
Leased (0)
Closed (711) Another slow week. If we look at Back on Market and Pending, the result is Closed.
Expired (141)

As we look at the trends in our marketplace, this week has clearly rejected the results of the last few weeks with fewer new listings and fewer closed transactions. How do Total Active Listings look?

We have only jumped 100 total active listings in the last week. This reflects a slowing in seller interest to jump into this market. On the other hand, we saw fewer buyers jump in with rates continuing to be a significant distraction.

Here’s my hypothesis for the next 100 days. Rates will drift slightly lower, but only marginally, not enough to cause any froth in the marketplace. The Supply and Demand Ratio will remain relatively stable too. Home sellers are not gamblers. They will want to see a clear vision. November 5th will offer some guidance. Buyers will continue to watch the market every day, week, and month. They will be stopping at open houses. They will be in search of the unattainable at a price below market. Lenders will have to adjust to lower demand. Real Estate Brokers will continue to press onward, because that’s what they do. The result of 2024’s market data will be less than excellent. Fewer sales will be the major departure from the trends in the last few years.

One way or another, it will be a brave new world. If you haven’t read it in a while, it is a good “circle back” book. You will get my message if you have read Future Shock, Brave New World, 1984, and/or Atlas Shrugged. If you have read all the John Steinbeck books, you will understand what’s happening. I can only pray that we look out for each other and hope for the best. Change and Changes are happening so fast, keeping up is difficult.

Let’s talk, let’s plan, let’s revel in the future coming our way. We are here for you…tc

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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07/16/2024 #AmazonPrimeDay #DogDaysofSummer

Posted on July 16, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Well, we had our 100* day. It’s official. We are in the Dog Days of Summer! Which means it is hot! Amazon Prime Day is always around this time, and do you think they plan it like this so you are staying in the A/C with nothing to do but shop?

We are at the crossroads of Supply and Demand…

Supply vs. Demand
Supply vs. Demand

Let’s get after it. We have clearly drifted into the Summer Malaise. Significantly more new listings than contracts and closings. I might add, not significantly out of balance, but the slow creep each week is compounding onto the Active Listing Count growing.

Market Watch
New Listing (1112) A reasonable number, but more than pending/closings.
Coming Soon (148)
Back On Market (202)
Price Increase (63)
Price Decrease (1612) Now, this is becoming crazy. We can do better!
Pending (823)
Withdrawn (132)
Leased (0)
Closed (772) A low number. Does not show market strength!
Expired (170)

From what we know about last week, here’s what we’ve seen on Total Active Listings.

My goodness, this market has changed from positive absorption to negative absorption in less than 6 months. The Denver Single Family Residential Market has grown from 4,731 Active Listings in January to 8,550 as we move deeper into July. This is the greatest number of Active Listings in more than 10 years. If we were to see another week like this, we would have over 9000 active listings. This is starting to get worrisome. Rates, Rates, Rates, and Rates keep rising as the Black Swan, but I believe this election year will attract more attention than the desire to own a home. Attention will be focused on what has pasted, what is present, and what the future might hold. Many residential decisions will be on hold. Heresy coming from a Realtor, but one man’s opinion can offer some value.

If you are actively in the market right now, you might benefit from more choices this jump in supply is providing. It might also allow a buyer to purchase with less competition. Finally, with less competition for mortgage dollars, we might see a favorable decline in mortgage interest rates.

This could all happen. Being BOLD in a market like this will have long-term benefits. You simply need the help of a professional. A battle-worn, experienced, and reliable realtor to be with you every step of the way.

I highly recommend Des’ree first thing every morning… “You Gotta Be”

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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07/09/2024 #OnTheOutsideLookingIn

Posted on July 9, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Have you ever had this feeling? Either way of course, on the outside looking in and feeling left out, or on the outside looking in at the Ant Farm. Our goal here is to let “you in” on the action. Every day, Denver’s Residential Real Estate Market baffles and surprises. We are here to demystify and share our knowledge. So, without further adieu, let’s get right into it!

Over the last 7 days, Denver’s Market Activity has been abysmal!

Market Watch
New Listing (552) Down!
Coming Soon (218)
Back On Market (135)
Price Increase (89)
Price Decrease (817) Down!
Pending (736) Down!
Withdrawn (124)
Leased (0)
Closed (525) Very Low, Down!
Expired (152)

The only positive takeaway here is the fact New Listings have not crushed the Number of Closings. Maybe this will slow the growth in the number of Total Active Listings.

Let’s take a closer look at what’s happening with Total Active Listings! We are about to get another gut punch!

Here’s the short of it:

January 4,727 Active Listings; February 5,125 Active Listings, March 5,324, April 6,265, May 7,947, and now closing out June into July 2024 a count of 8,346 Total Active Listings. For those of you still following along, we have seen a 76% increase in Total Active Listings since January. This is clearly not a good thing for Sellers, but even with rates where they are, we are observing buyer activity grabbing the Golden Gooses. Listings of exceptional condition, location or numerous other intrinsic features race away, but homes left less than “Parade Ready”, backing/facing traffic/other external obsolescence are seeing multiple price reductions before that contract arrives. Buyers are smart. They want last year’s prices. Sellers do not always make the best decisions on price, and that is why we are seeing so many price reductions.

My advice in a market like this is not simple. Sellers, need to take every possible step to move their Listing to the front row where the “A” Students sit. Buyers need to stay active in the market searching for the perfect match. And, Buyers need to ask themselves, what if rates never go back down. Although we will experience a 1-3% average decline in our market between now and the end of the year, the long-term trend will clearly be toward price stability and more modest appreciation.

So, here’s my advice. If you are a seller leaving the state, now is as good a time to make your home ready for sale. If you are planning on a move up or down in the Denver Market, today is just as good as any other day to start the process. We can successfully guide you through the process.

On the other hand, if you are a Buyer, now is a GREAT time to find your neighborhood/community/location in which you want to make your new home. By waiting you risk losing appreciation only to save a point or two on your rate.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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07/02/2024 Place Your Bets! #Unknown #ElectionYear

Posted on July 2, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

The first half is in the books. Now, the 2nd half is up in the air. Rates, Election, Supply, Demand, and whatever else this environment can throw at us. What’s your bet?

Market Watch All Property Types
New Listing (1647) Another close to record week for new listings in 2024.
Coming Soon (91)
Back On Market (280)
Price Increase (234)
Price Decrease (1957) Wow, this is another record week for price reductions.
Pending (1255) This is a strong week, but nothing out of the ordinary.
Withdrawn (256)
Leased (84)
Closed (1380) Creeping up, but still behind the supply side of the market.
Expired (664)

We have a plethora of choices in the All Property Type Market above. It adds roughly 50% more inventory each week, than the SFR market segment below. One could argue, the SFR market remains in a much more balanced almost seller position.

Market Watch Only Single Family Homes
New Listing (969) A very understandable number of New Listings.
Coming Soon (73)
Back On Market (174)
Price Increase (188)
Price Decrease (1261) Still very high, but not as dramatic as all property types.
Pending (896)
Withdrawn (141)
Leased (0)
Closed (1021) This is right in line with expectations of a strong market.
Expired (292)

What’s my point? In my history of 5 decades in this market, the ancillary property type supply and demand is a much more anticipatory group than SFRs. People need a house. In a market like this, many investors, developers, flippers, etc., exit and wait it out. They might envision too much risk. Where the most in-demand market of shelter tends to be more sustaining. So, right now, the SFR market is maintaining great ratios of Supply and Demand. Will condos, new construction, multi-family, and the rest start showing real signs of weakness? As always, only time will tell, but the early indicators are clearly in place.

To watch the numbers from this market week in and week out, and then all of a sudden to see a jump like this is surprising, to say the least. Moving up to 8,190 Active Listings has not been seen since 2014. We are going in on a wild ride folks. Get ready for the unknown…

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April to 7,335 at the end of May, and now at the end of June at 8,190 as we move into the 2nd half. Last year at this same time, we had about 5,440 Active Listings. This is a dramatic change in a short time.

And, that is why, Dee and I are here to assist, guide, and educate you on the trends, the neighborhoods, and when it might be best for you to dip your toes into this market. Please reach out to TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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06/25/2024 #Homeownership #SummerSeason #DenverMarketWatch

Posted on June 25, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Homeownership plays a crucial role in fostering stability, economic growth, and community development within society. One of its primary benefits is providing a sense of stability and security to individuals and families. Owning a home gives people a place to establish roots, build relationships, and create lasting memories. This stability is particularly important for children, as it can contribute to their overall well-being and educational achievement.

Let’s see what’s up this week. Our MLS is pumping out some amazing numbers again this week. Let’s read the comments associated with the last 7 days right now.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1616) Another amazing count here. After last week’s surprise, this is even a bit bigger!
Coming Soon (209)
Back On Market (264)
Price Increase (110)
Price Decrease (1935) Never a good sign, it’s getting worse every week.
Pending (1198) Not a bad week, but not sufficient to control the Supply/Demand Ratio.
Withdrawn (268)
Leased (80)
Closed (1004) An average week in the heat of the market season. A clear slow down indicator.
Expired (214)

If this market continues to add 5-600 new listings above the absorbed (Closed) activity, we will continue the move toward a buyers’ market. Let’s see how the total number of new listings has changed in a week.

To watch the numbers from this market week in and week out, and then all of a sudden to see a jump like this is surprising, to say the least. Moving up to 7,795 (7,800) Active Listings has not been seen since July 2014. We are going in on a wild ride folks. Get ready for a splashdown…

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April to 7,335 at the end of May, and now 7,795 as we move deeper into June. Last year at this same time, we had about 5,440 Active Listings. This is a dramatic change in a short time. WE believe it is important to understand, the virtue of homeownership extends well past its investment value as we discussed above.

And, that is why, Dee and I are here to assist, guide, and educate you on the trends, the neighborhoods, and when it might be best for you to dip your toes into this market. Please reach out to TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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06/18/2024 #FathersDay #Celtics #NameCalling #BuyersMarket

Posted on June 18, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

We enjoy living, don’t we? We enjoy Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, and Bigfoot Day. There is always a “Day”. Soon, there will be no regular ordinary everyday Days left. I’m sure today in Boston is the Celtic’s Day. Congratulations NBA World Champion Boston Celtics!

I follow a dozen or so X Accounts pretty regularly. These accounts range from our President to our Governor, and everyone in between. Some are for fun, and some are downright too serious, and I have to look away. There is one thing in common, particularly from the political accounts, #NameCalling has become pervasive! It becomes void of content or ideas. It is just name-calling. If name-calling is all you can offer, you are not offering much (However, I do giggle sometimes). Let’s all try to be a little more thoughtful. Thank You!

This week in our Denver MLS System, the last 7 days have been very interesting.

Denver Market Watch

New Listings
1598 Holy Moly, this is the most New Listings in a 7 day window this year!
Coming Soon
247
Back On Market
261
Price Increase
78
Price Decrease
1939 Holy Cow! I’ve never seen this many price reductions in a week!
Pending
1272 This is a nice strong week, but in light of all the new listings, this should be higher.
Withdrawn
185
Leased
72
Closed
1069 This number has always been higher by this time of the year.
264

We have learned in 7 simple days, this market has switched from a level of balance to a complete imbalance. Let’s take a look at Total Active Listings now. This will tell us how fast we are moving toward or if we are moving toward a Buyer’s Market.

Total Active Single Family Listings as of 06/18/2024.

To watch the numbers from this market week in and week out, and then all of a sudden to see a jump like this is surprising to say the least. Moving up to 7,699 (7,700) Active Listings has not been seen since July, 2014. We are going in on a wild ride folks. Fasten your seatbelts and raise your tray tables. Turbulence has just taken over the show!

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April to 7,335 at the end of May, and now 7,699 as we move deeper into June. Last year at this same time, we had about 5,440 Active Listings. This is a dramatic change in a short time. Is the “Black Swan” nipping at our heels? When will we declare this to be a Buyers’ Market? Clearly, with the number of Price Reductions, the increase in Active Listings, and Pending/Closings not keeping up, I am going to formally declare Denver has become a Buyer’s Market. Remember, residential real estate is ultra local, and all neighborhoods do not react to market friction the same way.

And, that is why, Dee and I are here to assist, guide, and educate you on the trends, the neighborhoods, and when it might be best for you to dip your toes into this market. Please reach out to TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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06/11/2024 #TacoTuesday #Globalism #States’Rights

Posted on June 11, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Well, Taco Tuesday has nothing to do with Globalism or States’ Rights. It does, however, give you a few ideas for dinner tonight. On the other hand, where do you stand? Do you believe government should come from a Global Authority, or do you believe government should come from the capital building in your state?

That’s an issue we will face now and in years to come. Will your home value become greater or lower with government rules coming from 6,000 miles away? Our Founding Fathers fought and almost came to blows over local government vs. centralized government. We’ve been having these political battles for 250 years. What’s next?

This week we’ve seen some of the same drama we observed last week.

Market Watch
New Listing (1106) A healthy number which has been climbing.
Coming Soon (189)
Back On Market (185)
Price Increase (93)
Price Decrease (1189) Clearly reflective of a market with more choices.
Pending (894) Not so great here, what’s happening, this is typically our strongest season!?!
Withdrawn (129)
Leased (0)
Closed (783) Very low. Mid-month Malaise!
Expired (115)

Ok, what we are seeing above is a market with growing supply and shrinking demand. How long will this take to completely unfold with out a discount from long-term rates?

As we move now to Total Active Single Family Residential Properties, there is much to observe!

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April to 7,335 at the end of May, and now 7,557 as we move deeper into June. Last year at this same time, we had about 5,440 Active Listings. This is a dramatic change in a short time. Has the “Black Swan” finally caught up to this market? When will we declare this to be a Buyers’ Market?

Dee and I are here to assist, guide, and educate you on the trends, the neighborhoods, and when it might be best for you to dip your toes into this market. Please reach out to TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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06/04/2024 Buckets of Wisdom

Posted on June 4, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

When I bought my first house, 1963 S. Lafayette Street, for $33,000, the contract was a front and back handwritten piece of paper. The closing only took minutes. When I walked out of closing at our corner First Federal Savings and Loan I only had a few more pieces of paper. It was hardly enough to justify its own file folder, but I did label that folder and file it away. Today, a closing seems like it takes forever. The pounds of paper dozens of signatures and more. When the first PCs came along, we were told we would have “paperless” closings and we’d love it.

Well, we didn’t really make it any better. Sharing my wisdom this morning, things changed. With two-income families, homes became the cornerstone investment for the family portfolio. Appreciation was expected, and the legal beagles took over. Soon enough, the simple S&Ls had been raided by the unscrupulous, and a world of simplicity was lost forever.

There’s an old expression that goes something like this; “Do you have twenty years of experience, or do you have one year of experience twenty times?”. The end game is such that you want your Bucket to be Full of Wisdom. It should be something to share where someone can go to and learn from.

We share wisdom here every week. Our bucket runs over with experience, ideas, wisdom, and stories to share. This week we continued to see this evolving trend in the marketplace.

Denver’s Market Watch
New Listing (1068) This is a healthier number for buyers than last week. Choices are becoming more common for a buyer.
Coming Soon (215)
Back On Market (171)
Price Increase (53)
Price Decrease (1175) WOW! This is the a big number!
Pending (932) This is still not indicative of a late spring number. It is too low!
Withdrawn (114)
Leased (0)
Closed (1007) Much better than last week, but we are tracking this closely.
Expired (233)

Not a big week, but much stronger than last week’s Memorial Day absenteeism!

So what’s new in the larger view of Total Active Listings?

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April and now 7,335 at the end of May. Last year at this same time, we had about 5,440 Active Listings. This is a dramatic change in just one week. Has the “Black Swan” finally caught up to this market?

I believe the rapid increase in Active Inventory, the uncertainty surrounding mortgage interest rates, and all the other impactful topics of the day are finally slowing this market down. Buyers waiting on the sideline may find a reason to pounce in the coming weeks, but I’m afraid potential sellers have let the peak market prices slide by.

For a more in-depth and personalized review of the marketplace, please contact TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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05/28/2024 “You will own nothing and be happy.”

Posted on May 28, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Is this possible? This is from a speech at the WEF about 6 or 7 years ago. It has echoed loudly since then as the dichotomy of thought as to what a happy life is and will be. Will we be on the Starship never to return home again? Who knows, but in the meantime, I love my home. Every time I make that last turn and see my house down the street I refrain, “Home again, home again”.

Anyway, this week we are seeing some really low numbers! Is this the market for whom the bell tolls? Is this the result of higher rates, economic wows, politics, global uncertainty, and/or all of the above? Anyway, let’s take a look.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (806) – Holy Moly, this is so low. Where have all the sellers gone?
Coming Soon (254)
Back On Market (152)
Price Increase (33)
Price Decrease (815) – Still not getting it on the first try!
Pending (763) – There really hasn’t been a week this year where this number did not approach 1,000 or more.
Withdrawn (87)
Leased (0)
Closed (667) – My goodness this is really low! I know we have a holiday weekend here, but this is not a good sign. This is a dramatic decline from the weekly number.
Expired (89)

So, with not-so-good news from the weekly numbers, what are we seeing from the Total Active Listing News?

Total Active Listing – Last 10 Years!

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April and now 6,013 at the end of May. Last year at this same time, we had about 4,800 Active Listings. The times they are a-changin’.

Now, when all is said and done, this is nothing dramatic. Keep in mind, we were running with 26,000 Active Listings in 2011-12. It’s all relative. The fact we have so few new listings coming on in the last week will be very telling if the same occurs in the next 7 days without a holiday intervening.

In the long run, if you’re making a residential decision in this market on your own whether buyer or seller, you are probably walking a tightrope. “One side is fire and the other is ice”. Don’t be up there all alone. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood

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