06/25/2024 #Homeownership #SummerSeason #DenverMarketWatch

Posted on June 25, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Homeownership plays a crucial role in fostering stability, economic growth, and community development within society. One of its primary benefits is providing a sense of stability and security to individuals and families. Owning a home gives people a place to establish roots, build relationships, and create lasting memories. This stability is particularly important for children, as it can contribute to their overall well-being and educational achievement.

Let’s see what’s up this week. Our MLS is pumping out some amazing numbers again this week. Let’s read the comments associated with the last 7 days right now.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1616) Another amazing count here. After last week’s surprise, this is even a bit bigger!
Coming Soon (209)
Back On Market (264)
Price Increase (110)
Price Decrease (1935) Never a good sign, it’s getting worse every week.
Pending (1198) Not a bad week, but not sufficient to control the Supply/Demand Ratio.
Withdrawn (268)
Leased (80)
Closed (1004) An average week in the heat of the market season. A clear slow down indicator.
Expired (214)

If this market continues to add 5-600 new listings above the absorbed (Closed) activity, we will continue the move toward a buyers’ market. Let’s see how the total number of new listings has changed in a week.

To watch the numbers from this market week in and week out, and then all of a sudden to see a jump like this is surprising, to say the least. Moving up to 7,795 (7,800) Active Listings has not been seen since July 2014. We are going in on a wild ride folks. Get ready for a splashdown…

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April to 7,335 at the end of May, and now 7,795 as we move deeper into June. Last year at this same time, we had about 5,440 Active Listings. This is a dramatic change in a short time. WE believe it is important to understand, the virtue of homeownership extends well past its investment value as we discussed above.

And, that is why, Dee and I are here to assist, guide, and educate you on the trends, the neighborhoods, and when it might be best for you to dip your toes into this market. Please reach out to TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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06/18/2024 #FathersDay #Celtics #NameCalling #BuyersMarket

Posted on June 18, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

We enjoy living, don’t we? We enjoy Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, and Bigfoot Day. There is always a “Day”. Soon, there will be no regular ordinary everyday Days left. I’m sure today in Boston is the Celtic’s Day. Congratulations NBA World Champion Boston Celtics!

I follow a dozen or so X Accounts pretty regularly. These accounts range from our President to our Governor, and everyone in between. Some are for fun, and some are downright too serious, and I have to look away. There is one thing in common, particularly from the political accounts, #NameCalling has become pervasive! It becomes void of content or ideas. It is just name-calling. If name-calling is all you can offer, you are not offering much (However, I do giggle sometimes). Let’s all try to be a little more thoughtful. Thank You!

This week in our Denver MLS System, the last 7 days have been very interesting.

Denver Market Watch

New Listings
1598 Holy Moly, this is the most New Listings in a 7 day window this year!
Coming Soon
247
Back On Market
261
Price Increase
78
Price Decrease
1939 Holy Cow! I’ve never seen this many price reductions in a week!
Pending
1272 This is a nice strong week, but in light of all the new listings, this should be higher.
Withdrawn
185
Leased
72
Closed
1069 This number has always been higher by this time of the year.
264

We have learned in 7 simple days, this market has switched from a level of balance to a complete imbalance. Let’s take a look at Total Active Listings now. This will tell us how fast we are moving toward or if we are moving toward a Buyer’s Market.

Total Active Single Family Listings as of 06/18/2024.

To watch the numbers from this market week in and week out, and then all of a sudden to see a jump like this is surprising to say the least. Moving up to 7,699 (7,700) Active Listings has not been seen since July, 2014. We are going in on a wild ride folks. Fasten your seatbelts and raise your tray tables. Turbulence has just taken over the show!

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April to 7,335 at the end of May, and now 7,699 as we move deeper into June. Last year at this same time, we had about 5,440 Active Listings. This is a dramatic change in a short time. Is the “Black Swan” nipping at our heels? When will we declare this to be a Buyers’ Market? Clearly, with the number of Price Reductions, the increase in Active Listings, and Pending/Closings not keeping up, I am going to formally declare Denver has become a Buyer’s Market. Remember, residential real estate is ultra local, and all neighborhoods do not react to market friction the same way.

And, that is why, Dee and I are here to assist, guide, and educate you on the trends, the neighborhoods, and when it might be best for you to dip your toes into this market. Please reach out to TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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06/11/2024 #TacoTuesday #Globalism #States’Rights

Posted on June 11, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Well, Taco Tuesday has nothing to do with Globalism or States’ Rights. It does, however, give you a few ideas for dinner tonight. On the other hand, where do you stand? Do you believe government should come from a Global Authority, or do you believe government should come from the capital building in your state?

That’s an issue we will face now and in years to come. Will your home value become greater or lower with government rules coming from 6,000 miles away? Our Founding Fathers fought and almost came to blows over local government vs. centralized government. We’ve been having these political battles for 250 years. What’s next?

This week we’ve seen some of the same drama we observed last week.

Market Watch
New Listing (1106) A healthy number which has been climbing.
Coming Soon (189)
Back On Market (185)
Price Increase (93)
Price Decrease (1189) Clearly reflective of a market with more choices.
Pending (894) Not so great here, what’s happening, this is typically our strongest season!?!
Withdrawn (129)
Leased (0)
Closed (783) Very low. Mid-month Malaise!
Expired (115)

Ok, what we are seeing above is a market with growing supply and shrinking demand. How long will this take to completely unfold with out a discount from long-term rates?

As we move now to Total Active Single Family Residential Properties, there is much to observe!

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April to 7,335 at the end of May, and now 7,557 as we move deeper into June. Last year at this same time, we had about 5,440 Active Listings. This is a dramatic change in a short time. Has the “Black Swan” finally caught up to this market? When will we declare this to be a Buyers’ Market?

Dee and I are here to assist, guide, and educate you on the trends, the neighborhoods, and when it might be best for you to dip your toes into this market. Please reach out to TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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06/04/2024 Buckets of Wisdom

Posted on June 4, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

When I bought my first house, 1963 S. Lafayette Street, for $33,000, the contract was a front and back handwritten piece of paper. The closing only took minutes. When I walked out of closing at our corner First Federal Savings and Loan I only had a few more pieces of paper. It was hardly enough to justify its own file folder, but I did label that folder and file it away. Today, a closing seems like it takes forever. The pounds of paper dozens of signatures and more. When the first PCs came along, we were told we would have “paperless” closings and we’d love it.

Well, we didn’t really make it any better. Sharing my wisdom this morning, things changed. With two-income families, homes became the cornerstone investment for the family portfolio. Appreciation was expected, and the legal beagles took over. Soon enough, the simple S&Ls had been raided by the unscrupulous, and a world of simplicity was lost forever.

There’s an old expression that goes something like this; “Do you have twenty years of experience, or do you have one year of experience twenty times?”. The end game is such that you want your Bucket to be Full of Wisdom. It should be something to share where someone can go to and learn from.

We share wisdom here every week. Our bucket runs over with experience, ideas, wisdom, and stories to share. This week we continued to see this evolving trend in the marketplace.

Denver’s Market Watch
New Listing (1068) This is a healthier number for buyers than last week. Choices are becoming more common for a buyer.
Coming Soon (215)
Back On Market (171)
Price Increase (53)
Price Decrease (1175) WOW! This is the a big number!
Pending (932) This is still not indicative of a late spring number. It is too low!
Withdrawn (114)
Leased (0)
Closed (1007) Much better than last week, but we are tracking this closely.
Expired (233)

Not a big week, but much stronger than last week’s Memorial Day absenteeism!

So what’s new in the larger view of Total Active Listings?

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April and now 7,335 at the end of May. Last year at this same time, we had about 5,440 Active Listings. This is a dramatic change in just one week. Has the “Black Swan” finally caught up to this market?

I believe the rapid increase in Active Inventory, the uncertainty surrounding mortgage interest rates, and all the other impactful topics of the day are finally slowing this market down. Buyers waiting on the sideline may find a reason to pounce in the coming weeks, but I’m afraid potential sellers have let the peak market prices slide by.

For a more in-depth and personalized review of the marketplace, please contact TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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05/28/2024 “You will own nothing and be happy.”

Posted on May 28, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Is this possible? This is from a speech at the WEF about 6 or 7 years ago. It has echoed loudly since then as the dichotomy of thought as to what a happy life is and will be. Will we be on the Starship never to return home again? Who knows, but in the meantime, I love my home. Every time I make that last turn and see my house down the street I refrain, “Home again, home again”.

Anyway, this week we are seeing some really low numbers! Is this the market for whom the bell tolls? Is this the result of higher rates, economic wows, politics, global uncertainty, and/or all of the above? Anyway, let’s take a look.

Denver Market Watch
New Listing (806) – Holy Moly, this is so low. Where have all the sellers gone?
Coming Soon (254)
Back On Market (152)
Price Increase (33)
Price Decrease (815) – Still not getting it on the first try!
Pending (763) – There really hasn’t been a week this year where this number did not approach 1,000 or more.
Withdrawn (87)
Leased (0)
Closed (667) – My goodness this is really low! I know we have a holiday weekend here, but this is not a good sign. This is a dramatic decline from the weekly number.
Expired (89)

So, with not-so-good news from the weekly numbers, what are we seeing from the Total Active Listing News?

Total Active Listing – Last 10 Years!

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April and now 6,013 at the end of May. Last year at this same time, we had about 4,800 Active Listings. The times they are a-changin’.

Now, when all is said and done, this is nothing dramatic. Keep in mind, we were running with 26,000 Active Listings in 2011-12. It’s all relative. The fact we have so few new listings coming on in the last week will be very telling if the same occurs in the next 7 days without a holiday intervening.

In the long run, if you’re making a residential decision in this market on your own whether buyer or seller, you are probably walking a tightrope. “One side is fire and the other is ice”. Don’t be up there all alone. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood

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05/21/2023 #TheAmericanDream #HomeOwnershipMatters

Posted on May 21, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Well, it does. Not only does Homeownership account for about 16% of our GDP, but neighborhoods with a high percentage of Homeownership have less crime, successful schools, and greater civic involvement.

After a few weeks of fluctuating data, it seems we may be returning to more typical market conditions. Perhaps Mother’s Day has a greater impact than we realize.

Denver Market Watch

New Listing (1066) – This is a bit low for being in the spring marketing season.
Coming Soon (130)
Back On Market (170)
Price Increase (70)
Price Decrease (1105) – Clearly, as an industry, we are not pricing properties correctly.
Pending (976) – Not a big week here. This number should be higher!
Withdrawn (108)
Leased (0)
Closed (829) – A very slow week here. Why is a peak spring week so slow?
Expired (113)

What’s happened to the Total Residential Listing Count?

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 in April and now 5,948 in May. Last year at this same time, we had about 4,800 Active Listings.

Moving forward into today’s market is rigorous. Rates, Supply, Demand, and more are a Buyer’s and Seller’s nemesis. We have trained ourselves and over out experience to overcome these uncertainties. We’ll be there for all along your journey. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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05/14/2024 #UnintendedConsequences

Posted on May 14, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

“New California Laws Will Make It Easier To Build Granny Flats”

Here’s What You Need to Know:

It’s back. This expression was big in Denver during the ’70s. “Don’t Californicate Colorado.”

You may see nothing wrong with these three new bills as good, bad, or indifferent. Guaranteed there will be unintended consequences. Do you want your neighbor to put a “Nanny Flat” in their backyard? How cute, Granny is coming to live with them; Oops, Granny never shows, and now it’s an ABnB unit with a revolving door. That intersection you pass every day on the way to work is now covered with very high-density residential units with easy access to the train. That intersection is now gridlock. Finally, where are those cars going to park. This is the West, just because you live in a multistory building, does this mean you will give up your car? Maybe we will be riding in autonomous self driving shuttle to Vail on the weekends, who knows? These are the new pieces of COLORADO Legislation ready for signature right now.

HB24-1313 (Transit Density Goals): This bill requires Front Range local governments to establish density goals near transit-rich areas. It has passed the Senate and House with amendments, including removal of certain provisions. The bill is awaiting Governor Polis’s approval. Learn more about HB24-1313.

HB24-1152 (Accessory Dwelling Units): This bill allows accessory-dwelling units on single-family properties in Front Range cities. It has passed the Senate and House with amendments. This bill is awaiting Governor Polis’s approval. Learn more about HB24-1152.

HB24-1304 (Parking Requirements): This bill limits parking requirements for multi-family developments near certain public transit corridors. It has passed the Senate and House with amendments. This bill is awaiting Governor Polis’s approval. Learn more about HB24-1304.

The incremental changes hidden in the dark rooms of representation seldom return virtuous legislation without Unintended Consequences now does it? All sarcasm aside, here’s this week’s Denver MLS numbers.

This week’s Denver Market Watch below gives us some new parameters with which to appraise this market.

Denver Market Watch

New Listing – A significant decline in New Listings compared to last week? Why?
879
Coming Soon
228
Back On Market
174
Price Increase
51
Price Decrease
885
Pending – Once again, a significant reduction from last week’s number. Why?
949
Withdrawn
100
Leased
0
Closed – Now this is way down from last week, what’s happening?
735
Expired
105

So, what’s happening? In just a week, activity is off about 50% from last week. Are we only going to have a Spring Market of one week? I’m putting my thinking cap on here. I am going back and double-checking, seeking anecdotal support from our market participants, and looking deep into our own business, and I am not finding any immediate explanations. By next week, hopefully, I’ll have a Clear, Concise, and Cogent description of what’s happening.

Now, let’s take a look at where the number of total Active Listings has gone.

We have increased from 4,591 in January to 4,960 in February to 5,039 in March to 5,669 im April and now 5,812 in May. Last year at this same time, we had about 4,800 Active Listings.

These numbers show substantial increases, but at the same time, we are nowhere near the numbers of 2008 – 2012. It is my belief, that we will remain in this “balanced market” for the foreseeable future. There is still substantial demand albeit less than what we would have with lower rates, but markets eb and flow. We need to remain nimble, prepared, and work our plan. Successful closings don’t happen on their own, Failure to Plan is a Plan for Failure. We’ve all heard it, but we need to live it when investing in a home. A home sale or purchase is still one of the largest investments any family will ever make. We will be there for you every step of the way.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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05/07/2024 Where have you been? Where are you going?

Posted on May 7, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Everyone reading this has been somewhere other than their home. From down the road to across the globe. Travel is endearing. It can make you see the world through another lens. Similarly, part of the experience of getting there is how you will get there.

The same can be said for your current home, your new home, or your dream home. Will you drive, ride, walk, bike, or something I haven’t thought of yet. In college, I rode my bike to class on every sunny day. Sorry, I don’t ride a bike in the snow. Have you kept track of this?

Well, depending on where and how you’re going, you will be interested in what happened last week in Denver’s Residential Market.

Denver Market Watch

New Listing – This is a huge number, huge! The biggest of the year!!!
1700
Coming Soon – About the same as last week.
257
Back On Market
289
Price Increase
119
Price Decrease – This is the biggest number I’ve seen, ever!
1595
Pending – Looking at this as the spring marketing season, this is a healthy number, but by no means is is above average.
1363
Withdrawn
192
Leased
88
Closed – Once again, this is a great number considering what we’ve been seeing. What do you think is triggering all this activity?
1437
Expired
418

It looks like spring has sprung! It’s kind of exciting to see what happens next! We’ve not seen inventory explode like this for many months. Will it continue?

Now, let’s look at the Total Number of Active Listings over the last 10 years!

This Data Chart tells us, that inventory is growing. The numbers look like this. January 4,591, February 4,960, March 5,039, and now that April has closed out, it finished up at 5,659. That’s about a 23% increase since the end of January. Good for buyers, I would think. Sellers are starting to understand that starting out with a List Price being too high is very detrimental to their sale…

So, we’ve learned a lot today. We continue to have a typical spring marketing season with good Under Contract Activity, but slightly below average Closed Inventory numbers. As we move into May’s numbers it will be interesting to see if we fall into a more “normal” statistical level.

We’ll keep in touch, please do the same…tc

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04/30/2024 #FutureShock #Dystopian #AI

Posted on April 30, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

In the early ’70s, Alvin Toffler wrote a book called Future Shock. I read it about 1979. Apparently, the Future Shock took a while to catch up with me. Anyway, the hypothesis of the book was pretty simple. Things will change as we move into the future so fast as to create Information Overload. He argues that the accelerated rate of technological and social change leaves people disconnected and suffering from “shattering stress and disorientation”—future shocked. 

Holy Moly, the more things change, the more they stay the same, or “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”. Anyway, as we deal with our ever-growing dystopian urban areas, we are now faced with the “most dangerous thing mankind has ever been faced with”; an evolving technology called AI. Soon robots will tell us what to do; as the fatalists would have us believe. I have a feeling we’ll still be able to pull the plug, but who knows?

LSS, we still call the shots, we decide if we want to make the world a better place, keep it the same, or let it grind itself into oblivion. So far, it seems a lot like a book written in 1970.

Over the last 7 days, Denver’s Residential Real Estate Market has looked like this.

Market Watch

New Listing – Nothing to see here. We are not seeing sellers rush to the market!
819
Coming Soon – Once again, nothing to see here. This is about normal.
257
Back On Market
164
Price Increase
69
Price Decrease
771
Pending – This is an OK week. Normally, this number would be well over 1,000!
968
Withdrawn
82
Leased
0
Closed – I’m not sure why this number is dropping off so much. The market seems more active than this anecdotally.
840
Expired
97

In the big picture of things, this is just another week in Denver during 2024 with no real surprises except, all levels of activity seem below normal for a spring marketing season.

What about the total single-family residential inventory or Total Active Listing?

We’ve seen inventory slowly expand into the spring marketing season. 4,591 Active Listings in January to 4,960 in February and closing out March with 5,039. Next week, we should see April’s numbers, but I don’t expect a significant surprise. This market could easily be described as lagging in malaise.

As always, we will keep you informed of potential future trends, forecasts, and ideas… It’s what we do!

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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04/23/2024 #MarketCycles #It’sDifferentThisTime

Posted on April 23, 2024 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Spring has sprung!

Dee and I have thrived through many market cycles. Love your house, but date your rate! Truer words have never been spoken. If you buy a house that becomes your home, you will love it. Over time, the market will change. Values will increase, and values will decline. Rates will increase, and rates will decline. Owning a home you love, however, is the only tax-incentivized event you most likely will ever enjoy. Let’s focus on a home you can love. The rate thing will work itself out.

I have observations this time around making me think it is different. This time, builders are not in an oversupply condition. Institutional buyers of residential properties continue to buy. Rates are nothing like what they were in the ’80s. This is keeping inventory in check, buyers of strong economic circumstances can still afford to be buyers, and sellers who have waited long enough are creeping back into the market giving those buyers some choices. Will it be a soft landing? This truly is the $64K question. Only time will tell, but right now, it is different this time.

What happened in the Denver Market this week?

Denver Market Watch

New Listing
848 Not much happening here!
Coming Soon
187
Back On Market
162
Price Increase
74
Price Decreases
801 We still can’t get the original list price right!
Pending
951 Not a bad week, considering the lack of new supply.
Withdrawn
82
Leased
0
Closed
739 This is a very slow week. the spring marketing season has not sprung…
Expired
125

OK, what does this mean for our Total Active Listings?

With $,577 Active Listings in January, 4,940 in February, and finally, 4,960 at the end of March, we are tracking well within the limits of a market of short supply in the neighborhoods of demand. Communities with active new construction will face builder competition with incentivized transactions. Closing Costs, Buy-Downs, and Free Upgrades are just a few of the builder’s tricks.

So, we have flowers in bloom, rain in the forecast, and generally strong economic indicators in our marketplace. Denver will do better than just survive during this period of uncertainty. This does not mean it will be easy to understand, but we are here for you every step of the way!

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