Do you have one year of experience 20 times, or do you have 20 years of experience?
Let’s look at Denver’s SFR Market quickly:
January 2015 to the end of December 2024, the total number of active SFRs in the Denver Metro MLS system was; 4,092, 4,005, 3,687, 3,370, 4,552, 3,800, 1,718, 1,796, 4,335, 4,828, 5,598. We are starting 2025 with more inventory than we’ve had in the last 10 years. This sounds terrible, but when compared to 2008 through 2012, 5,598 is nothing to worry about, but it is important. Whenever buyers have more choices, the balance swings toward a buyers’ market. When observed graphically, the market challenge of oversupply is not nearly as commanding as first thought. The substantial drop in inventory in the last couple of months in 2024 lead us toward a more favorable balance.
We can not call this current level of inventory an oversupply, but we will watch this closely throughout 2025..
As for 2025, Dee has some terrific listings coming up in Q125. Let us know what’s on your list. We can find it for you…
This will be our last post of #2024. It has been a great year for us. We were blessed with Louie James Cryer in October. #5 Grandchild, it never gets old. Two sixes, two threes, and now a less than one. This will make it a very special Christmas when we get together.
As for 2024, we had many headwinds. We had higher rates than buyers like. We had the election. We had wars, we had urban crisis, and we had slowing job growth along the front-range. In spite of the headwinds, we had a listing over $3M and a buyer over $3M. On the other end, we had a buyer at $425K in new construction. Finally, we had a seller of a one bedroom condo at $240K. So, we covered the gambit this year, and a fine year it was.
What happened this week in our MLS report? Let’s take a look.
Overall, this is not a bad week. 2025 has some momentum based on this. Of course, we have to wait and see, but it will not be long now. In just a few weeks, we will understand how things will be going for 2025.
Let’s delve right into how Active Listings look for year-end.
The graph’s rounding of total active listings is clear and as predicted a few months ago. Today, we are reporting just 7,353 total active listings. We haven’t seen a number this low since April 2024.
My prediction is well supported. We will have more buyers than sellers during the first quarter of 2025. Rates will keep the market calm as we settle into a new President. My guess on rates will keep them above 5.5% for the duration of 2025, but over 6% is more likely.
In the meantime, Dee is already building the 2025 pipeline of buyers and sellers. If you are looking for something special, she may already have it waiting for you!
We will have more to discuss below, but the Holiday Season has been and will be in full swing.
We see buyers more critical than ever on condition, appeal, and maintenance issues. As a seller, you can not run with the Three P’s. (Put it in MLS, Put in a sign, Pray) This market is demanding more than I have ever experienced. Buyers have seasoned inspectors, buyers are asking for follow-up reports, and buyers are walking away unless the seller complies. As a seller, you can no longer go, HoHoHo, to the bank. Buyers are finding every hidden defect. Eyes wide open, if you will. Your chimney needs to be as clean as your kitchen floor.
So what’s happening in the Denver Market this week? We are seeing the “layering effect” impact sellers, too. It’s no longer the picky little details from an inspection, it’s the compiling of those issues. Just like a cake, the driveway with the spalling concrete is no big deal, but the layer of old windows, the floor plan, site size, location, and neighborhood feel creates price resistance. Often overlooked initially, after a dozen or more showings, the feedback quickly exposes the layering effect. In my humble opinion, the only way to overcome the Layering Effect is via price. Some layers can’t be change because they are external or non-economic to change. Thus, the List Price is a seller’s only weapon.
Denver Market Watch
New Listing (437) Clearly less than half of last week. “Let’s wait until the new year.”
Closed (816) Not a bad week, but 20% below what has been typical.
Expired (825) This is clearly the show of the holiday season. Let’s try again at some later date.
The advice here is straightforward. As a buyer, if you are interested in a property, stay with it. The seller, still on the market, is looking for something in writing. If you are a seller, you can’t under-price your property. The market is active enough to bring multiple offers if you are priced at or slightly below market. The rule of thumb for Active Listings is, if you aren’t getting showings, you are 10% too high. If you are getting showings but no offers, you are 5% too high. I can’t tell you how many times this has proved true. So, buyers, keep hunting for that tipping point. Sellers, don’t give up, this is the time of year where you will have the least competition. “Don’t give up”… as Peter Gabriel sings…
Let’s look now to the Total Active Listings.
As posted a couple of months back, I wrote. “Soon, the supply of Active Listings will round off the top of the graph and show a significant decline.” Well, here we are! With just 7,075 Active Listings, we’ve rounded the top with a total active supply lower than May 2024. More support for my hypotheses above. Don’t give up!
As we close out 2024, we plan to continue our posts with relevant stories about the Denver Marketplace. We hope you are interested in what we have to say. Please feel free to put up questions, and we will work to source the answers.
With a word this long, we don’t need anything else on the title line. I first heard the word Disintermediation back in the 1980s. It was employed to frame the collapse of the Savings and Loan Business. Everyone was racing to take their money out of the corner S&L and move it to safer environs. We are experiencing a tsunami of #Disintermediation. It’s based in our information, reporting, news and their source material. If one source is owned by Besos, and another owned by Musk, who are you going to follow or believe. I’ve wondered this for years, myself. Here’s exactly my formula.
I am an X user. If I want to hear from the Mayor of Denver, I follow Mike Johnson. If I want to hear from Joe Biden, I follow Joe. This eliminates the intermediary. Source news can then be objectively followed to a conclusion of truth or untruth. Along with this, I may follow supporting characters along the way. By reading a “hit” piece in the WSJ, you’re getting something that has been edited for “clicks” at least 3 times. My method is like drinking from the spring. The WSJ way is getting it with fluoride from the water district.
Ladies and gentlemen, reading OUR weekly posts is like getting Denver Real Estate News straight from the source. There has been no editing here. Now, let’s see what happened this week.
Over the last 7 days in Denver’s Residential Single Family Marketplace, this is what’s happened!
Closed (1043) Over 1,000 is a good week this time of year. Everyone wants to get home for Thanksgiving!
Expired (403) The sellers giving up is higher than normal, but it is not seasonally atypical.
It wasn’t a bad week. Let’s keep it going into 2025, OK! Let’s see what has happened to the number of Total Active Listings below.
With just 9,006 Active Listings this morning, it is clear the market has reached its peak for 2024, and the number of Active Listings will be falling from here through the end of the year. It might be a good time for a buyer to find a “shopworn” listing at a lower price. The seller might just want out! On the other hand, it could be a very good time for a seller to come on the market right now to be the shiney new listing in the shopworn marketplace. It’s your choice!
As 2024 winds down to days rather than months, we have a few good things happening. The stock market is enjoying a “Trump Bump”, Crypto is running wild, and inflation is subsiding. On the other hand, mortgage rates are not falling, and income is not rising. These are the key factors for a home buyer. We still face the seller with a 3% mortgage. That seller is not giving up that rate for today’s 7% rates, thus inventory will stay at reasonable levels. The Conundrum Lives On!
It’s commonly cited throughout business publications, “Never let a good catastrophe go unexploited”. Due to the settlement battle still unresolved between Realtors and the class action law suits, it has caused consternation between local boards of Realtors, MLS systems, the National Association of Realtors, and who is standing by the side waiting to pounce in my humble opinion? That’s right, it is Zillow. Over the last few years, I have yet to be with an active buyer without the Zillow App on their smartphone. By not syndicating one’s listings to Zillow it hurts one’s Seller. Their market reach is deep.
The expression comes to mind, “Careful what you ask for….”. We ultimately have a system that nobody asked for, but due to unintended consequences, is just around the corner. “Keep your eyes on the road and hands upon the wheel”, and we will keep you informed along the way. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com We will be there for you!
What’s happened this week in Denver’s Residential Marketplace?
So, as we roll into fall with full force and our first snowstorm, it is important to note here, we are seeing a Trump Bump. Showings are up. Under Contracts are up. It’s too soon to tell if Closings will be up. Once again, Zillow’s algorithm has turned positive in the Zip Codes I follow. Zillow is predicted values in Denver will be positive over the next 12 months.
What does our total supply look like?
Once again, we are reporting a decline in the total number of Active Listings Week over Week. This helps stabilize values. Good things are happening in this market over the last 2 weeks.
We will be there with you every step of the way. Please do not hesitate to lean in on our experience. Let’s make our plans now for 2025!
When The Trill of Victory and the Agony of Defeat was written into ABC Sports, who knew it would live on in infamy? The election is over, but the real fight is only just beginning. The way residential real estate transactions take place has been changed. In the meantime, it is still being fought in court, so who knows how all this will end up. WE are here to answer those questions.
For the most part, the electorate has shown the differential between the Big City vs. the Suburban and Rural voters. Did COVID move so many urban voters to a new generation of suburban and rural voter strength? This map tends to confirm this.
Anyway, let’s move right into the market over the last 7 days.
It’s always difficult to determine what makes the market react a certain way. We will no more in the weeks to come. Don’t stop tuning in each and every week to see what happens next. During this window of time, we had a lot of snowy weather.
What has happened to the number of Total Active Listings in the Denver Metro Area?
Another week, another decline in Total Active Listings of Single Family Homes. Not much of a drop, but it’s down to 8,746. When buyers are in shorter supply this time of year, it is great to have fewer choices. The market builds strength or weakness from Supply and Demand ratios.
In the meantime, if you want to talk about the Election, the Market, CU going to a bowl game, or why won’t the Monforts sell the Rockies to a winning owner, we are here for you.
PS… We put one under contract last night. We called our Inspector for an appointment time. He is booked out with “two a days” for the next week. The winds are changing…tc
Almost 4 years ago to the day, we were sitting, standing, driving or walking in this exact same place as we were then. Rival political parties spent months pandering to our needs and wants in an election process which IMHO is so last century. But, I digress. This election like all elections is the “most important ever”. I guess we will know if it was or not in exactly 4 more years.
All the hoopla surrounding the election, however, has consumed real estate buyers and sellers. Do I buy, sell, or wait it out? Surely rates will be lower and the market will be better next year. Dee and I were married in April of 1982. In October of the previous year rates hit their all time high at over 18%. We had assumptions, buy-downs, subsidies and more. Any ingenious idea that could get a buyer into a house or a seller out of one stood out in the marketplace. Over the next 10 years in Denver, not a lot happened. We saw a steady but very slow decline interest rates. In 1990, we were down to 10%. Homes were purchased and sold, but the market was very volatile. Residential Markets will continue to ebb and flow, they always do. You heard me say this before, but it does seem different this time. I’m trying to put my finger on it…
We are no better at holding elections this time around than we were 40 years ago. I expect more. We all should!
Enough of that, what happened in the Denver Residential Market over the last 7 days?
Denver Market Watch
New Listing (928) The seasonal trend of fewer listings each week is in place!
Expired (818) More and more sellers are giving up for 2024.
Now, what has this weekly trend done to the aggregate numbers? Let’s see!
With a total of 9,338 Active Listings last week, this week we are reporting 8,585 this week over 750 fewer active listings than the previous week. This is a huge seasonal correction in just one week. As I had reported in previous weeks, we will see the seasonal swing of fewer active listings as we close out 2024. I called it “rounding off” a few weeks ago.
As I continue growing my Real Santa Beard, we are a few days short of 50 for it to completely fill in for pictures. For the people who have seen this event before, they believe I am well on my way to authenticity! What do you think? Will I make it?
AS you make your real estate decisions today, think about your plan for 2025. We are able to connect you will like minded brokers in over 100 markets across the globe. Over the years, we have referred clients to residential experts. Let us know if we can help. It’s always nice knowing there is a warm hand waiting for you.
Fall is here! We’ve had our first snow in the mountains, and at least one or two ski mountains have carried some visitors to the top for a run. The leaves have changed, and now they are carpeting the streets with golden and red. and yellow medallions. It’s an exciting season.
Everyone is asking me, What’s Next? I have an opinion for you. Let’s start at the top. The US has an ocean of debt. These high rates are making that debt very expensive. If somehow, the FED is able to reduce the rates, then foreign monies might search for other investments rather than US Dollars. It is the proverbial “Catch-22”. The high rates sell dollars, but it also increases the cost of being a debtor.
Next, in one week, we will vote for a new president. The mainstream media would have you believe we are more divided than ever. We sell and list houses for all types of people. Every one of them has concern for the same things. Safe streets, good schools, employment, and access to the things of daily life. These likes concern everyone. In national rankings, when media outlets are ranked below Congress, we are all fighting for the truth. We are all finding our own source, and this may be where the “divide” originates. Who knows, but next week, we will have another seasonal change.
Buyers and Sellers continue to have the same questions. Should I wait until spring? “Rates will be better, supply will be better,” We don’t know that. I can tell you from a historical perspective that over the last 10 years, we have had voracious spring marketing numbers. But, we have had fall seasons with very low inventory, where buyers and sellers have done very well. Thus, the conundrum we discussed in our newsletter last week.
Let’s not dwell on the unknown anymore this morning and look at last weeks MLS numbers for the 11 counties making up the Denver Market Watch.
Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1058) Not a bad number here. Well down from its weekly peak.
Closed (1038) Not a bad week either, but we keep seeing the “Crashed Deals” not making it to Closing. Inspections, Loans, Appraisals, etc. are the root causes.
Let’s jump ahead to the Total Active Listings over the last 10 years. How does this market look in comparison?
We can see the Total Active Listings leveling off for the holidays. It will be interesting to see the results of this election, what it does to rates, how it affects buyer and seller optimism, and last but not least, how it will affect Colorado and, more specifically, the Denver Metro Area. By following us on a weekly basis by subscribing to MyTownCryer, almost every tuesday morning you will get our answers to your questoins.
Everybody has a correct opinion, but does everyone have a wrong opinion? During election season, we can get caught up in the ads, the rhetoric, the personalities, and, of course, the candidates. People who grew up in South Dakota will look at the world through a different lens than the people living in New York City. My personal opinion revolves around homeownership. When communities have a high percentage of homeownership, they tend to be safer, enjoy schools with higher scores, have greater household wealth, and are more involved in elections. The opposite side of the coin tells me a renter has greater mobility.
Either way, is one opinion right and the other opinion wrong? This is the reason it takes two teams to have a game, two opinions to hold court, and many reasons to distill down to an election. I could go on and on and on, but let’s look into the market over the last week or so.
Denver Market Watch
New Listing (1111) Not as big a jump as last week, but still moving more toward the buyer than the seller.
We continue to observe a rounding at the top of SFR inventory from this chart. From last week, we were actually down by a couple hundred Active Listings over the previous week. This should flatten and decline as we close 2024. Single-family inventory drives the residential market, and this is why we watch it very closely.
Moving to another subject, if you have residential real estate plans for 2025, this is the ideal plan to take an hour, sit down with us and discuss the formation of a plan. The new year will be upon us very quickly, and the more definitive your plan, the more likely it will unfold positively. After many years in the business, this market is all about timing, timing, timing.
MyTownCryer 
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