Good Morning Everyone “03/10/2020”

Let’s take a quick look at what the Denver MLS has to say to us this week.

Pendings remain up over New Listings this week! Again this week mirrors last week. Limited Supply, Favorable Demand and Low Interest Rates. Life is very good for most sellers in this market. Life is “hard work” for most buyers. We are surrounded by entire neighborhoods with NO inventory, NONE, and when it does approach the market, buyers are like “Great Whites” off of Cape Cod. Anecdotally, we had listings over the last 2 weekends with multiple showings and multiple offers and subsequently under contract in two days respectively.
But wait! There’s more…
You’ve read my comments about “Black Swans” before, but this week “it is different”… You name it, The Market, Oil, C-19 and more have slapped the face of the National and Global Markets. The rapid negative response to these events will certainly be long lasting. In today’s world, that means until the next event hits the 24/7/365 networks. I would offer up the opposite view on today’s Black Swans. AS for The Market, Warren Buffett has been quoted over and over again; “When people are greedy, be fearful, and when people are fearful, be greedy.” This appears to be very sound advice.

AS for Oil, I will speak from experience here. Having lived through the Embargo Days in the 1970s, we waited in line and paid a lot for gas. Today, there are no lines and gas is very inexpensive. The collapse of oil prices over the last month will scare some major companies already dealing with lessened demand. This will put pressure on the economic viability of EVs and it will cause job loss in oil/gas production. This will not be pretty if this plays out as I envision.

Last but not least, C-19 is not pretty. I’m afraid there has not been enough clarity with the events surrounding this virus. But, I’m here for you. Check out this link for up to the minute world reports and FACTS surrounding C-19!

Let’s get back to the market. The Denver Residential Market is so thin with new inventory, buyers are jumping on anything and everything, in some neighborhoods, but being a bit more “picky” in others. Anecdotally, we are personally running low on listings. We have had a rapid response to everything we’ve put on the market, and we are receiving phone calls about “Off Market” listings “coming soon”. We have two or three “coming soons” that will ultimately “fly off the shelf” too.

The numbers still tell us, the Under Contracts and Solds this week were very strong, but the Active Listings are still not keeping pace, and some could argue seasonally low. Let’s think about this for just one minute. In the Greater Denver Metro Area, there are 1.5M households. We have about 5,000 active listings of which about 3,500 are detached single family homes. If you are considering putting your own home on the market, now is the time!

WE have lost our guiding light on what the election will bring us this year. We have run some numbers and have reviewed others numbers, and there have not been drastic changes in the markets leading up to elections in our market over the last few election cycles. Let’s see what happens in the coming months.

Don’t get me wrong, there are probably a few more “Black Swans” in the water. This Coronavirus has become a much bigger talking point in spite of a deadly flue season all around us. When the price of oil craters like it did yesterday, it is going to ruffle a lot of independent feathers in Colorado. Finally, we’ve had some crazy weather in the metro area over the last few weeks. It looks like this is keeping some potential buyers away from the market. As buyers hit the streets, there will be some wild negotiations happening. Stay here for an update on potential buyers.

As you can see from the graph above, we finished the year with slightly more than 5,000 active listings while averaging about 5,000 closings each month. Inventory is way down from last year. By some measures as much as 20% down. This will be updated monthly. From this, we can see, one month’s supply of inventory in a market as big as Denver with 1.5M households. This market is primed once again for the spring rush with a dearth of inventory. It does not appear to have any reason to change. Builders are not interested in building “inventory”, our senior population is aging in place in record numbers in the metro area, and the new resident numbers continue to beat national averages. Denver continues to offer employment growth!

So, what’s a buyer to do? We have a very successful system for buyers, and we have unmatched results with our listings too. Let Dee and I help you along the way. Everyone’s journey is different.

Long story short, we have an EPIC ride in front of us for 2020. Fasten Your Seatbelts, Raise Your Tray Tables and get ready for take-off!

A successful move, relocation, down pricing, down sizing or even moving up takes planning. Jumping out of a airplane without a parachute is not healthy. The proper order and proper plan for buying or selling a home requires the same attention to detail. Give us a call, come in, spend one hour with us. Let us show you a clear pathway to a successful transition. We’ll be there for you…

Dee and Tom Cryer… TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com 303-887-3917