06/20/2023 #Father’sDay #TheLongestDay

Posted on June 20, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Everyone!

If you haven’t done your research on Father’s Day recently, this link will fill in the blanks. The longest day of the year is what we call the summer solstice. And, you can learn all about it here. But, if you want the easiest way to remember all this, Father’s Day is the third Sunday in June, and the summer solstice is either the 20, 21, or 22. One in the same? You be the judge.

This week in Denver’s MLS looked like this.

New Listing (1266) Not a bad week!
Coming Soon (234) This is strong.
Back On Market (236)
Price Increase (142)
Price Decrease (1202) This is troubling to see. This is too high.
Pending (1278) Another strong week.
Withdrawn (168)
Leased (85)
Closed (1046) Not bad, but lagging a little bit.
Expired (152)

Overall, as we roll into the summer malaise, we continue to maintain a healthy data set but as Megan Sisk Aller stated this week…

During summer, we typically observe a decrease in buyer demand, partially influenced by factors such as vacations, family commitments, and the overall seasonal slowdown. Simultaneously, the supply of available properties may experience a slight increase as homeowners choose to list their homes before the summer ends or consider delaying their plans until the fall.

Let’s never forget, the residential housing market in Denver ebbs and flows. It only takes an excess of 1,000 new listings to change the balance. We may see this in the next 1-3 months.

How are we doing with supply? Our total of Active Listings this week at 4,807 SFRs is not a back breaker at all, but it does show we are consistently increasing month over month, week over week.

It’s a waiting game now. Will supply build like years past, or will we act more like 2021 and 2022. Only time will tell.

In the meantime, I am so grateful for my family. The gathering on Father’s Day, Christmas at the beach and just the related fun. It’s a good life!

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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06/13/2023 #DenverNuggets #WorldChampions

Posted on June 13, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning My Town Nation!

After 46 failed tries tries, the Denver Nuggets have finished on top as World Champions on their 47 try for 2023! This is pretty special considering the fan support holding strong through all those years! Congratulations Nuggets!

The moral of all this is to never, never, never stop trying.

Anyway, this week in Denver Residential Real Estate, what have we learned? Do we have stormy skies on the horizon? This is what it looked like in Centennial a couple of days ago, so, maybe this is a premonition to our market.

In the last week, we have been able to negotiate a Listing below its list price, and we have had to have a price reduction on one of our listings. It is not atypical to have a post Memorial Day malaise, but I’m not getting a good feeling here. This week in the MLS, it looked like this.

New Listing (1451) This is the biggest weekly New Listing number this year!
Coming Soon (247) This is a solid number for next week’s number too!
Back On Market (269)
Price Increase (134)
Price Decrease (1134) This has been a nagging number. Predicting market response to a new listing is as difficult right now as I’ve experienced in all my years!
Pending (1357) This is a solid number, especially as we move into these weeks of malaise!
Withdrawn (163)
Leased (73)
Closed (1099) This is relatively weak compared the last 60 days. Sometimes the first few days of a new month do not have the closing activity of a week toward the month’s end.
Expired (163)

So, as we see current mortgage rates try to define themselves as a new normal, a rush across the market to normalize them with Seller Concessions has clearly made their presence known. My guess is this participation on the seller’s part will only increase in the coming weeks and months. After 10 years of “free” money from the Fed is not going to be erased easily or quickly. We have some headwinds here.

Where has the total number of Active Listing gone during this last week?

We have observed a very small incremental change in the total number of SFR Active Listings in our market over the last 4 months. This can be reported as a move toward a more normal market where buyers could possibly have choices or, it could be proven historically this is just not enough inventory and a relative shortage. Either way, I believe the change is positive. It is giving buyers a chance to visit the Listing more than once. Sellers are being forced to make quick choices, and as a representative in the marketplace, it allows us some breathing room. Whichever it is, it is a change, and will all change comes opportunity. Let’s “Keep our eyes on the road and our hands upon the wheel”…

As always, please do not hesitate to to spend time with us discussing your needs, wants and non-negotiables. We are finding this a particularly good market to be a move up buyer and first time seller in this market. Being married to your current interest rate may be holding you back from a great opportunity out there.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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06/06/2023 #Happiness #MMOR

Posted on June 6, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Blog Friends!

Dwelling Deficit/Something to Ponder

“Between 2000-2010, the housing stock rose 15.8 million and the number of households rose 11.2 million. Thus, vacancies rose 4.6 million and the vacancy rate rose 2.4 percentage points. There were plenty of houses. Conversely, between 2010-2020 the number of units increased just 8.8 million, but the number of households rose 10.1 million, resulting in vacancies falling by 1.3 million and the rate falling by 1.6 percentage points, a housing shortage.” 

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Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

#Happiness can be learned. You personally control at least 25% of your happiness. Learn the behaviors necessary to achieve it. #Hint: Don’t take your phone to the bathroom with you…

Your #MentalMapofReality is important too! Do you have a Map? If not, find one!

With these ideas out of the way this morning, let’s jump right in. What did Denver’s MLS look like over the last 7 days. Compromised by a long weekend and the beginning of “summer”, did we suffer some lag in the market. Let’s look!

New Listing (1369) This is a good number. This reflects no loss from the long weekend.
Coming Soon (240) This too is strong!
Back On Market (269)
Price Increase (189)
Price Decrease (1155) Wow!!! This is HUGE. This market requires the right bait!
Pending (1284) A good week!
Withdrawn (191)
Leased (93)
Closed (1588) WOW! End of the month strength here, Buyers and Sellers finding their way to the closing table in spite of all the #BlackSwans!
Expired (364)

Rain, Strong Demand and spring holding on. It’s never been this green over the last 30+ years. Just look at this! And, I can argue, this is a great market for buyers and sellers too!

This is not Ireland, it is the Mile High City of High Desert Plains. All the reservoirs will be full this year!

Now, let’s look at the number of Active Listings over the last 10 years and see how the “Mile High City” is fairing.

With just 4,485 Active SFR Listings in and around the Metro Denver Residential Market Place, this is lower than last week, and still lower than 8 of the last 10 years. Take a look!

This is another strong May into June Season. Let’s not forget how seasonal swings in the marketplace will affect this market in the months ahead. We should start to see Active Inventory climb over the next couple of months. Buyers, pay attention to this!

As always, this is only a snapshot into Denver’s single family residential market. Let’s keep a close eye on this. We’ll be here for you to deliver your #happiness and help you with your #MMOR. Thanks for being there with us, and I’ll be back next week…tc

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

“Jump in, the water is warm…”

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05/30/2023 #MemorialDay #TheUnofficialFirstDayofsummer

Posted on May 30, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Everyone!

We made it through a weekend of hotdogs, pools and thunderstorms in honor of our fallen. I have often thought there should be a better reckoning with out service people who fought in wars and came back with memories from the war zone they’d much rather forget, As my father once said to me, “War is bad”. And, it still is…

For all these reasons, Memorial Day is often sold as the first day of summer. “Memorial Day often has been associated with the unofficial start of summer, because it can coincide with the end of the school year and because in much of the country, it’s when pools and public beaches open for the season.”

There’s much history in just this one row at Ft. Logan National Cemetery, and there is something meaningful about visiting our parents there. Solemn but connected. Amen

Well, this week Denver’s MLS reported much of the same as previous weeks, but in much smaller numbers than earlier in the month.

New Listing (1017) Not a very large number here, but comparable to the number of closings!
Coming Soon (262) A bit higher, but not Earth Shaking.
Back On Market (218)
Price Increase (109)
Price Decrease (820)
Pending (1083) Not a big number, but certainly in line with the other numbers.
Withdrawn (137)
Leased (64)
Closed (1021) Not much to brag about her, but still keeping pace with the others.
Expired (128)

I guess what we can take away from this week’s numbers is total counts are down, but at a level equal to their corresponding numbers, so, no harm no foul and the “Beat Goes On”…

Where has the total number of listings gone? Let’s see…

We have healed since the Interest Rate onslaught of Last June. We only have 4,424 total SFRs Actively Listed in the 11 county MLS Area. This would be considered a shortage at any other time, except, With rates bouncing off the highs of 7% not many are moving either. “Where would I go, I have a 2.99% rate on my current residence!”

With all this said this morning, we have celebrated an important weekend and we are still here, and we wish the same for you. As always, don’t hesitate to pick of the phone and give us a call….tc

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05/23/2023 #Cheap or #Inexpensive

Posted on May 23, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Hello Everyone,

WE hope each and everyone of you are living the life you deserve.

Today, I want to talk about #Cheap and/or #Inexpensive. The word #Cheap has infiltrated our vocabulary as a society like the plague. Everything is #Cheap or #Cheaper. I’m sorry, but when discussing homes in excess of $500,000, I just don’t believe CHEAP is the appropriate word usage. What’s CHEAP about $500,000?

On the other hand, when discussing issues of value about homes, to me, the usage of #Inexpensive or #Expensive seems more appropriate. I’d love to have you share your thoughts. Please use the comment box below.

In Denver over the last few days, there is nothing in our marketplace making our homes #Cheaper. Take a look…

New Listing (1257) Not a bad week, but certainly not Earth Shaking!
Coming Soon (156) Lover then last week!
Back On Market (262)
Price Increase (148)
Price Decrease (1085) This is HUGE. What is up with Broker/Seller pricing?
Pending (1514) This is a very good week!
Withdrawn (161)
Leased (91)
Closed (1296) Not bad at all here. Up a little bit…
Expired (201)

Week in and week out, we continue to present strong numbers of a market well away from external characteristics which could cause decay. I’m impressed!

We have fewer listing now than we did a year ago and rates are almost double what they were then. Here’s what it looks like…

I believe, if the bond market were to change course and go lower, we would have huge supply problem in the Denver Residential Market. Can’t see the FED lowering rates anytime soon…

Overall, WE continue to see our Buyers and Sellers reach agreements to buy and sell that approach a more fair market than one year ago, but there are some cracks around the edges in more distant suburbs and remote areas where market times are longer and prices are down from years past. But, are they #Cheaper or less #Expensive?

You decide…tc

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05/15/2023 #MillerMoths

Posted on May 15, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Why are miller moths in my house?

“But the miller moth — which Harp said gets its name from early settlers who thought the moth’s scales (when shed) resembled grain mill dust — is mostly attracted to light and heat in homes and automobiles. Harp recommends shutting doors tightly and turning off lights to keep the insects out of homes.”

Who knew?

This is from the Kobeissi Newsletter. I follow this for its great ideas. What do you think of this one?

“The supply of new homes for sale is down nearly 30% since September 2022.

Millions of homeowners are locked-in to sub-3% mortgages and do not want to sell.

In result, rapidly rising rates have barely made a dent in the housing market.

Soon, the Fed will begin cutting interest rates again.

Once mortgage rates begin to pull back again, the housing market may be setting up for another run higher.

As long as mortgage rates are above 3%, supply is likely to remain tight.

The bubble gets bigger.”

From the… https://www.thekobeissiletter.com/

So, what happened in the Denver MLS this week?

New Listing (1244) This is a solid performance here. Give us some new clean inventory!
Coming Soon (275) This is up a bunch from last week!
Back On Market (205)
Price Increase (130)
Price Decrease (867)
Pending (1265) This is a solid number too!
Withdrawn (167)
Leased (80)
Closed (1025) Once again, buyers and sellers are finding their way to the closing table…
Expired (143)

Not bad numbers at all, with the total active listings of both attached and detached, there is still less than 5 weeks supply in the surrounding 11 counties.

What’s up next? In about 2 months, the Fed will meet again, if we see no change in the Fed Rate, we may be off to the races. If we have another painful increase. In my mind, everything will be done to keep the pain in 2023, because you know what?, 2024 is an election year, and the paint will be coming out to make everything rosie…

In spite of all the headwinds and Black Swans in the water, Dee and I continue to work successfully with buyers and sellers. Experience counts. Don’t be fooled…tc

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05/09/2023 #TheTaxMan #PropertyAssessment #Assessor

Posted on May 9, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning America!

We just picked up an American Made Flag for our front porch. I must say, it looks good! The same day, we received our Property Assessment from the County. I sure hope the mil levy gets adjusted, otherwise our tax bill is going to hurt! This is reality…

So, the Assessor evaluates and establishes the Assessment, the Treasurer will establish the mill levy and ultimate tax bill. The greatness of America is the result of responsible citizens paying their taxes at the federal, state and local levels, and by the way, don’t forget sales tax…

OK, let’s get after it. Over the last seven days, this is what Denver’s market looked like. It was a strong week for New Listing and Pending Sales.

New Listing (1341) A solid spring number. Buyers may find something new!
Coming Soon (236) Also, a solid number to anticipate.
Back On Market (242)
Price Increase (192)
Price Decrease (1046) This is just CRAZY! It appears that 80% of new listing ultimately receive a price reduction at least once. This is an indication of changing market conditions.
Pending (1399) Once again, this is a strong number, but not Earth shattering in any way.
Withdrawn (143)
Leased (77)
Closed (1107) This is an average week, nothing to brag about here.
Expired (164)

Now let’s look at the average price in the 11 counties making up Denver Metro.

Over the last 10 years, we’ve seen our average price more than double. Much of this is the result of highest prices in our market exploding. Now, we are seeing the highest price ranges taking a breather, and this has lowered our average sales price so far this year. More to come on this.

Next week, I will show you where this Top End pricing and inventory is going. In the meantime, be safe out there…tc

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05/04/2023

Posted on May 4, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Do you have a quote you live your life by or think of often?

Everything you do affects someone else.

Think dirty dishes…

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05/04/2023

Posted on May 4, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

May the 4th be with you!

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05/02/2023 #piñata #TestimonialTuesday #DenverMarketWatch

Posted on May 2, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

“Buying a house out of state is very challenging but the Cryer team was so amazing! They are very knowledgeable and patient as we made a difficult decision! “ Stacy M.

With Cinco de Mayo just around the corner, I need a Piñata for the kids. Where do you get yours?

Let’s get right into it. The headwinds are so strong. Why isn’t our market suffering? If you don’t believe me, ask @GloriaAlvarez85.

The last 7 days in our MLS looked like this.

New Listing (1205) This is not bad, but into May now, I’d like to see 1,400ish for buyers.
Coming Soon (285) Not much higher than normal.
Back On Market (220)
Price Increase (160) Big, Big, Big improvement here!!!
Price Decrease (834)
Pending (1437) A solid week, where are buyers finding these properties?
Withdrawn (161)
Leased (103)
Closed (1399) Solid!
Expired (373) Capitulation? Giving up? Almost double the “Back on Market”…

Well then, if we’ve had another pretty solid week, when will the “shoe drop”? Rates, War, Taxes, Politics, Division, Believers, Deniers, Producers, Looters and Moochers…

Here’s what Denver’s Supply and Demand looks like.

Other than 2021 and 2022, there hasn’t been lower supply of Single Family Residences than now over the last 10 years.

More to digest this week. The number of sales continues to impress in spite of low inventory…

So, that’s all for this week. Let’s keep an eye on the past while looking forward. Denver has a good market full of good people working every day to make the world around them better every day!

@mytowncryer

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