10/24/2023 #Elections #Fall #Rates

Posted on October 24, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Everyone!

Off year elections are always a little hokey. Like HH in Colorado, how will voters manage the ability of Legislators ability to tax? Spenders and changers want HH, status quo people want to keep Tabor and limit spending. I voted no on HH. I was just not convinced it is good legislation. When ever legislation has so many parts, the ultimate unintended consequences are worse than what’s in place.

Until yesterday, we were having a very colorful fall season. Then wind happened. We have leaves everywhere now!

Rates have been, are and will be the headwind affecting every transaction with a mortgage. I believe we will get no relief until we’ll into 2024. The Fed waited way to long to raise rates and now it’s been over done. Their aim for a 2% Inflation Rate will take time. Monetary changes today take months to grab hold. Long story short, patience wills out on this one. Keep in mind, the first mortgage Dee and I took together was 17.5%. In just a few years, we refinanced to 9.5%. The average mortgage rate over the last 50 years has been about 7.5%. Current rates are not far off this. The sky is not falling!

With all this said, what happened in our Denver Market this week?

Market Watch

New Listing
1047 This is an average week here. Nothing surprising.
Coming Soon
110
Back On Market
254
Price Increase
131
Price Decrease
1432 This is continuing to be an issue. Ask us about this!!!
Pending
938 Nothing special here. Some might argue this is a little low.
Withdrawn
234 Giving Up?
Leased
68
Closed
905 Not a great week here for sellers. Seasonal trends are in full affect.
Expired
237 Giving Up?

Total Listing Count is always interesting. This week’s total is 5,756 in the Denver Metro 11 County Market. The Chart looks like this.

As you can see we appear to be balancing with Active Listings as we move toward year’s end.

With total residential inventory still less than 6,000 at 5,756, we are a long way from another real estate recession, but we need to be vigilant. We need to, first and foremost, price appropriately. Particularly, in the higher price ranges of $1.5M and up. Buyers in this price range in large part, made their moves when rates were under 5%. Under $1M, we are still seeing a very busy, shake it off, type of mindset.

What we need you to remember is simple, we are here for you to interpret the local complexities of this market.

The Cryer Team’s Mission: Provide Real Estate Services so complete, thorough and professional, The Team becomes not only YOUR real estate resource, but by referral the resource for your family, friends and associates. Inherent in this mission statement is the vision of impeccable service and unquestionable integrity.

Dee and Tom provide a multi-disciplined background of experience, service and results in the Denver residential market.

The Team is dedicated to providing SELLERS an unparalleled marketing strategy, superior Internet presence, exceptional customer service and consistent communication backed by more than 30 years of successful residential experience.

The Team is also dedicated to providing BUYERS an organized, strategic and aggressively negotiated platform from which to acquire the home of their needs and dreams. They have worked diligently to provide a list of concierge services making the buying process transparent and supportive.

Tom and Dee have been awarded and acknowledged by their clients, peers and associates many times throughout their careers. That being said, they are most proud of what their past clients have written about them in the form of testimonials.

We would urge you to take an hour, come visit our office, discuss your needs and wants with us and learn why our system may work best for you.

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10/21/2023

Posted on October 17, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

#BeattheMarket #8% #DifferentThisTime?

Unlocking the real estate market with 8% interest rates as a home buyer can be challenging, but not impossible. Here are a few potential strategies:

  1. Improve your credit score: A higher credit score can help you qualify for better interest rates. Paying bills on time, reducing debt, and using credit responsibly can all contribute to improving your credit score.
  2. Save for a larger down payment: A larger down payment can help offset the impact of higher interest rates. Saving more money before purchasing a home can help you reduce the loan amount needed and potentially qualify for better rates.
  3. Explore different lenders: Different lenders may offer different interest rates and loan terms. Shopping around and comparing offers from multiple lenders can help you find the best option for your situation.
  4. Consider adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs): ARMs offer lower initial interest rates that can be fixed for a certain number of years before adjusting. If you plan to sell or refinance before the rate adjusts, an ARM may be an option to consider.
  5. Work with a mortgage broker: Mortgage brokers can help connect you with multiple lenders and negotiate on your behalf to find the most competitive interest rate available.

Remember, interest rates can fluctuate over time, so it’s important to stay informed and be prepared for potential changes in the market. Consulting with a financial advisor or mortgage professional can also provide personalized guidance based on your specific goals and circumstances.

Posted in Denver Residential Real Estate | Leave a comment

10/17/2023 #Affordability #Locally #Globaly

Posted on October 17, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

As I sit here this morning in front ot my computer eating one of Oprah’s Favorite English Muffins hand delivered to my house yesterday by global travelers, we are talking about what buyers and sellers are thinking right now in the Denver Residential Market. Pretty cool, huh? I didn’t even know Oprah had a favorite muffin…

The first thing coming to mind was Buyers Are Concerned about #Affordability. The persistence of higher rates is killing the young buyer slow to the market. “But, Henry and Jane have a rate of 3.5%…” It is truly killing them! Did you know, the all time average for 30 year mortgage interest rates is 7.52%? Engaging with a highers interest rate than Henry and Jane is not a sin, a calamity or a reason to lose sleep. In the big picture of a lifetime of homeownership, accept it and move on.

Additionally, realize we are a “#Locally owned and operated marketplace”. Our market is different than Chicago’s, New York’s, Atlanta’s and Dallas’. We are the Denver Market with 11 counties included making up about 3.25 million people in about 1.6 million residential properties. We still have less than 7,000 units for sale! Doing that math quickly, .004375% of properties are for sale. Not that there is nothing to worry about, but there’s nothing to worry about today.

So, think #Locally when considering the Denver Market. We still enjoy economic growth in a very diverse economy along and in the Front Range!

Next up, #Globaly. Sure, as Barry Mcguire sang in 1965, we are on the Eve of Destruction, and we’ve been there before. Life will go on, and we will get on with our lives. This is the way…

The Eastern world, it is explodin’
Violence flarin’, bullets loadin’
You’re old enough to kill but not for votin’
You don’t believe in war, but what’s that gun you’re totin’?
And even the Jordan river has bodies floatin’

But you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
How you don’t believe
We’re on the eve of destruction

Anyway, this week really starts to push us into the fall market. Let’s take a close look at the last 7 days.

Market Watch

New Listing
1074 This is a strong week for buyers. With this many new listings, some buyers will be happy!
Coming Soon
132
Back On Market
264
Price Increase
152
Price Decrease
1628 This is still an explosion of price reductions. We are not getting it right.
Pending
1020 Not a bad week, buyers are still out there in force, and sellers are setting the hook.
Withdrawn
228
Leased
82
Closed
922 Nothing special about this number, but it is not dire, just average.
Expired
275

Where has total supply of residential listings taken us this week?

With total residential inventory still less than 7,000 at 6,657, we are a long way from another real estate recession, but we need to be vigilant. We need to, first and foremost, price appropriately. Particularly, in the higher price ranges of $1.5M and up. Buyers in this price range in large part, made their moves when rates were under 5%. Under $1M, we are still seeing a very busy, shake it off, type of mind set.

What we need you to remember is simple, we are there for you to interpret the local complexities of this market.

The Cryer Team’s Mission: Provide Real Estate Services so complete, thorough and professional, The Team becomes not only YOUR real estate resource, but by referral the resource for your family, friends and associates. Inherent in this mission statement is the vision of impeccable service and unquestionable integrity.

Dee and Tom provide a multi-disciplined background of experience, service and results in the Denver residential market.

The Team is dedicated to providing SELLERS an unparalleled marketing strategy, superior Internet presence, exceptional customer service and consistent communication backed by more than 30 years of successful residential experience.

The Team is also dedicated to providing BUYERS an organized, strategic and aggressively negotiated platform from which to acquire the home of their needs and dreams. They have worked diligently to provide a list of concierge services making the buying process transparent and supportive.

Tom and Dee have been awarded and acknowledged by their clients, peers and associates many times throughout their careers. That being said, they are most proud of what their past clients have written about them in the form of testimonials.

We would urge you to take an hour, come visit our office, discuss your needs and wants with us and learn why our system may work best for you.

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10/10/2023 #Legal #Illegal #GrayArea

Posted on October 10, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

When one spends a week in the desert and it rains, it’s a good life. Also, time in the desert allows one to think from a different point of view. One of the things affecting the #OffPavement participants is government. One of the things affecting #Homeowners is government. And of course, the gray area of #TrailClosures and #ApplianceMandates is asking for forgiveness rather than foregoing. I hope this makes sense; remember, I’ve been spending time in the desert where things happen in #GeologicTime.

As we go about our daily lives, #Shelter, #Transportation, and #Sustenance day in and day out, I believe we begin to lose perspective. Let’s face it, in some fashion, we all work for the man! As we take back our perspective through travel, exercise or even a Zac Brown Concert down the street, #TheGreatThomasa’s little head has become pretty darn good at identifying the “conspiracy”.

Long story short, as we work toward reporting an accurate picture of the Denver Residential Market, we have absolutely no control over the external forces. Rates, War, Markets, People, Location and a million other factors not identified here. So, let’s jump into it and put the last two weeks into perspective. #DenverMarketWatch

Market Watch

New Listing
1226 This is a good late season number. Buyers getting more and new choices!
Coming Soon
123 Very low, next week looks bleak for New Listings!
Back On Market
283 Coming and going, a lot of inspection items not being resolved.
Price Increase
152
Price Decrease
1604 WOW, this number is HUGE! Clearly seasonal softening of the market.
Pending
966 Not a great week, but let’s follow this one very closely…
Withdrawn
244 Sellers giving up. We will see more of this as we move closer to Thanksgiving.
Leased
60
Closed
788 This is really weak. This number has been running at 1,000 or more. WE will watch this.
Expired
269 Giving up, similar to Withdrawn added together is really Market Threatening!

So, Seasonal Softening is clearly apparent, Now, let’s take a look at Total Active Listings this month.

With 7,838 Active Listings one year ago, and only 6,513 Active Listings today, we are not in an area of potential market collapse, but we are approaching a tipping point from a Sellers’ Market and at least a balance. This would tend to suggest a buyers market is just around the corner. Right? Not sure, it will depend on the attitude of rates.

In closing, it was very difficult to get my father to talk about his time of war in the Pacific. He would simply say, “There is nothing good about war.” Yesterday, I read this, “The only winner in war is the defense industry.” It does not diminish what my father professed, it is simply the realization, businesses and people often prophet from misfortune of war.

Your Real Estate Team

The Cryer Team’s Mission: Provide Real Estate Services so complete, thorough and professional, The Team becomes not only YOUR real estate resource, but by referral the resource for your family, friends and associates. Inherent in this mission statement is the vision of impeccable service and unquestionable integrity.

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10/03/2023 #Moab #LandRovers #TheWest #LRNR2023

Posted on October 3, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

The first week in the last quarter of 2023 arrived. I’ve traveled to Moab, UT. Along the way, I visited with family, enjoyed the colors of fall, am continually amazed by the what #TheWest means to me, and of course my awkward affection for all things #LandRover.

Since I’m away from my computer this week, my hunt and peck phone finger typing will have to suffice. The Land Rover National Rally 2023 was pushed into October. The desert in the fall is pretty special. Warm days cool nights; even a few showers. Drivers from Canada, England, Scotland and Brazil made the pilgrimage along with with drivers from 18 different states. The opportunity to enjoy our differences is bonded by Land Rover ownership.

There is a lot of common ground here. Maybe that is what brings us back together each year. My/our first Rally was 1995. Two of my three children still drive Land Rovers. They grease the body of life; literally!

Next Tuesday, I’ll be back with all the facts and figures, so please visit again. For now, this is what Land Rovers do best. That is, burn old dinosaurs!

The Club Trailer Made the Trip to Moab Again!

“Something to do, something to love, and something to hope for.”

Posted in Denver Residential Real Estate | Leave a comment

09/26/2023 #Headlines #TalkingPoints #Sentiment

Posted on September 26, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Politics, Business, Media, Society and these days there are the influencers to drive it all home even in the subset of the real estate industry. We are not immune from these Headlines, Talking Points or Sentiments. Am I correct?

Fall

“Fall in love with the house, not the rate.” “Reverse mortgages are safe, insured by the Federal Government and never cost you a thing as long as you live.” “Over time, home values have always increased.” I could continue, but this blog is about the Denver Residential Market. This week, we are starting to see a seasonal swing. Let’s take a look.

New Listing
1256 Down from last week, but still higher than average!
Coming Soon
138
Back On Market
257 This number is higher than average, but it is not cause for alarm.
Price Increase
105
Price Decrease
1833 Now this is really much higher than weeks past. Sellers looking to get things done before the holidays!
Pending
1053 A solid week here, but this is not a display of strength in any manner.
Withdrawn
217
Leased
81
Closed
958 Once again, this is not a show of strength here. Down from last week.
Expired
211 This is an important number to follow as the year closes out. Will many more sellers give up?

Now, let’s take a look at the total number of Active SFRs in Denver Metro.

To watch the numbers from this chart, we are up about 1,000 active listing since May of this year. We are up a solid 3,000 active listings since January of this year. Now, we could clearly argue January was too low, but I can also argue at 6,311 active listings today, we are moving toward a more normal market. If rates were not interfering with the buyers’ economics, we would be back to that January low before years end. But, we are not. The broader economics along the Front Range from Ft. Collins to Pueblo are quite strong with job growth and unfilled openings. As a result, I will not scream fire in the movie theater. “In fact, the future’s so bright, we will all need sunglasses!”

On the other hand, I would advise sellers to spend their time and energy on Market Prep, scour the market for the trend in their respective neighborhoods, and PRICE APPROPRIATELY. Statistics shows a Listing with one or more price reductions often sells for less than an appropriately priced home right out of the shoot. This is where an experienced, time tested Listing Broker pays more than dividends in this market.

So, as you look around for your listing broker, please think through the entire process.

In the meantime, #Headlines, #TalkingPoints and #Sentiment seldom tell the whole story. We will walk you through the entire process every step of the way. Your safety in this market place is out obligation! WE would be honored to be your trusted real estate advisor. We would be honored.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

303-887-3917

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10/22/2023 Megan Aller #DenverMarketWatch

Posted on September 22, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

I can highly recommend Megan Aller’s research on Denver’s Residential Market whole heartedly! She has consistently presented clear, concise and cogent reports on a weekly basis. If this is an area of interest for you please subscribe to her report. You will not be disappointed.

Have a great weekend….tc

First American Title
Metro Denver Market Review


Market softening heading into late September…
In the ever-evolving world of real estate, making informed decisions based on micro market conditions is paramount to your success. To help you navigate the intricacies of the market, we have compiled critical data points that shed light on the current landscape.

Inventory Dynamics: Late September has seen aging active inventory taking longer to sell, resulting in a growing inventory pool. Our average daily active count increased by 5.8%, with a total of 6,593 listings for sale, including 1,041 new listings. However, new listings decreased week over week by -16.3%, creating a tight inventory landscape in 2023.

Months of Inventory: The months of inventory have grown to 1.9, indicating a softening market in the 7 metro counties. A figure below 1 month suggests multiple offers, while the market’s temperature varies geographically.

Odds of Selling: The Odds of Selling stand at 47.2%, slightly below the historical average of 47.8%. We are optimistic that this metric will trend positively based on data from previous Septembers.

Demand Balancing: To achieve a balanced market with a 6-month supply of inventory, we would need 20,776 total listings, which currently stands at only 31.7% of balance.

Showing Insights: Last week, 11,790 showings were scheduled, averaging 1.8 shows per property. The median time to go under contract was 14 days, with an average of 15 showings.

Price Reductions: Price reductions remained steady at 38.1% of units going under contract, with a slightly larger reduction size of -5.6% off the original price.

To delve deeper into these vital insights and position yourself for success in this dynamic market, we invite you to download our comprehensive report. Simply click the buttons below to access this invaluable resource.

By harnessing the power of data-driven decision-making, you can stay ahead of the curve and thrive in today’s real estate landscape. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to gain a competitive edge.

Thank you for trusting us as your source for real-time market intelligence. We look forward to assisting you in making sound decisions and achieving your real estate goals, and we hope to see you at First American’s closing tables very soon!

Miss the in person event? Catch the recording here: https://bit.ly/45ZjwCt

Register for the final zoom call next Thursday at 10:00 here: https://bit.ly/3ntCpwz

Megan Aller
Sales Executive
MOBILE 720.229.6641
megan.sisk.aller@firstam.com
Checkout My Website

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09/19/2023 #Agreement #Disagrement #Resolution

Posted on September 19, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Recently, I was at a meeting, and I engaged in conversation with a gentleman from New York. Almost without introductions, he announced, “I’m a liberal from New York”. I asked him, “what does that mean?” He ummed and ahed, so I asked him, “Does that mean you would like to live in safe neighborhood? Would you also like ‘good schools’ supporting those home values? And, would you like abundant, accessible employment within a reasonable commute?” His answers to all three of these questions was the same. “I want all three!” Then I said, “Why do you label yourself as you do?”

He said, “I guess it is just something my generation grew up with, and I carried it on”. Long story short, there is much more #Agreement between us than there is #Disagreement. If you have been following me, you know #Homeownership is what binds us in #Resolution. Everyone wants a safe place to rest their respective heads, Everyone wants support for their home values with schools of a certain quality, and Everyone wants employment nearby.

Over the next year, 13 months to be exact, there will be an intense media burrage trying to divide us. #Homeownership is the key to good neighborhoods, good schools and jobs nearby. Communities with strong #homeownership have lower crime, more voters and stronger schools. So instead of buying into the divisive rhetoric, support #homeownership. Support the mortgage interest deduction, support first time homeownership pathways of down payment assistance. Discourage Wall Street’s overreach into our residential markets sweeping inventory out of reach.

I guarantee if we were able to move the gauge of owner occupancy from 60-65% to 70-75%, so many things negatively affecting some of our communities would turn toward the positive. Strong communities, safe communities, communities with quality schools and communities supporting job growth are safe are communities with a high owner occupancy. This is in our census data. It is real. We all want a secure investment in our homes. It’s not a #Red or #Blue issue, its good public policy. Get to know your candidates on both sides of the isle. Support the candidate supporting all aspects of #Homeownership. Our world will be a better place for it.

Now, let’s see what the Denver Residential Market Watch did over the last 7 days. These numbers only represent Single Family Residences.

Market Watch

New Listing
1247 This is another strong week for New Listings!
Coming Soon
171
Back On Market
279
Price Increase
500
Price Decrease
1570
Pending
1036 This is only average. This looks like a continuation from last week.
Withdrawn
205
Leased
83
Closed
966 Although a recessive number from earlier weeks, this clearly not an indication of a failing market.
Expired
222

From the above we clearly have an indication of growing supply and slowing declining demand. Now, let’s take a look at Total Supply of Active Listings over the last 10 years.

Although, we are witnessing the typical “rounding off” of the number of Active Listings, we still have a month or more before we can say 2023 is in line with years past. WE still look much better than Pre-Covid years, and 2021 and 2022 are identifying themselves as market anomalies. I could easily report, “Nothing to see here”, but something is going on, but we will have to wait to confirm it.

Please follow along and share with your friends, family, associates, Aunts and Uncles. Thank You…tc

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09/12/2023 #Community #Homeownership #WallStreet

Posted on September 12, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

This week continues my epiphany of this market. As we approach or even march into the dystopianism of urban life in many of our large metropolitan cities, I will harp on what I’ve been writing about for more than a dozen years.

I will start with #Community. I believe every single US Citizen desires Community. The wealthy man buys a Porsche and is instantly part of an elite community. A wealthy woman travels to Tuscany; same thing. Country clubs? Being part of something greater than themselves comes with the territory. The less affluent might become a part of a sewing club, a book club, volunteering at the food bank, being part of a faith or religion, or even part of a Homeowners Association. People naturally want to be a part of a community. This is why Homeownership is so, so, so, very important. It gives people Something to do, Something to love, and Something to hope for. It’s part of the American Fabric of Life.

The last part of my epiphany conversation continues to be about #WallStreet. If you follow me you know, Blackstone, Vanguard, StateStreet and more have a highly developed strategy of acquiring Single Family and Multifamily residences and becoming the world’s largest landlords. This strategy will effectively eliminate entry level residences from the first time buyer/homeowner. Historically, the entry level home has been the cornerstone of American Life. What will happen now?

Anyway, this week, Denver’s Single Family Residential Market looked like this over the last 7 days.

Market Watch

New Listings
1540 This number is huge! The largest number of 2023!
Coming Soon
174
Back On Market
294
Price Increase
190
Price Decrease
1560 This number just keeps growing. We’ve clearly moved past the price peak.
Pending
1105 A typical week, but not competitive with the above number of new listings.
Withdrawn
211
Leased
64
Closed
932 This is starting to be a seasonal trend not keeping up with supply!
Expired
234

As seen above, there are some bellwether number changes this week. Let’s see where we are going in this market. We could argue, this is great time to be a buyer; choice and low competition.

As I wrote above, we have reached our peak and started to witness average price decline. So, now let’s see how inventory is impacting this.

We have now seen the affects in Denver of High Interest Rates. There has been 7 consecutive months of slow and steady inventory growth. Still below years past, but nonetheless, inventory is growing, but the number of sales has remained stable or declined too.

This is the watershed newsletter. Is the beginning of wholesale price declines and the loss of value in this market? Keep in mind, we sill only have slightly more than 6,000 Active Listings in an 11 county metropolitan area of 3.25M. That is clearly NOT oversupply, but it is the first step?

With all of this, please be aware, this is not armageddon. If rates were to move toward 5%, this would change overnight. And, the current market continues to run, but just not as fast as 18 months ago. Let’s keep a close eye on this. I will continue to explore these trends everyweek, and keep you on track with the Denver SFR market. Please, stay tuned and tell your friends, family, aunts and uncles. We’ll be there for your homeownership journey!

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09/09/2023 #Rates #Forecast

Posted on September 9, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer
Mortgage Rate Forecast
Posted in Denver Residential Real Estate | Leave a comment