07/11/2023 #7Eleven #jenesaisquoi

Posted on July 11, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Hello Everyone,

A new week in a new month. The eleventh day of the 7th month only comes around once per year, and we are here again. This is the time in the annual residential market cycle where it is very je ne sais quoi. I will make a guess today as we run through this post, but to be honest, no one really knows where we are headed. Certainly, the meteorologists do not know where we are going, The greenest backyard in 31 years.

This market is adapting to higher rates, but 7% is a hard pill to swallow when a little over 1 year ago, we were running with something in the 3s. As I have always said, “Life is hard, and then you die.” A little melodramatic, but it is…

So what happened last week?

New Listing (1361) We are definitely seeing more new listings each week!
Coming Soon (221)
Back On Market (233)
Price Increase (178)
Price Decrease (1307) This is a huge number reflecting the adjustment sellers are making!
Pending (1139) Just think, it took 1,307 price reductions to get this many under contract…
Withdrawn (183)
Leased (73)
Closed (1075) Not a bad early in the month number coming off the 4th. Quite good actually!
Expired (177)

In the shortest of terms, there were no major changes this week to put us into Worryville. I would call it Normalville.

Total active listings in the surrounding SMSA of Denver went up, but it is still less than 1 year ago!

Time frame is from Jan 2013 to Jun 2023
County Or Parish is one of ‘Adams’, ‘Arapahoe’, ‘Boulder’, ‘Broomfield’, ‘Clear Creek’, ‘Denver’, ‘Douglas’, ‘Elbert’, ‘Gilpin’, ‘Jefferson’, ‘Park’
Property Type is ‘Residential’
Property Sub Type is ‘Single Family Residence’

We sit at 5,427 active listings right now. This is about 1,000 fewer than last year 2022 at 6,489. If anyone tries to tell you a “Henny Penny” story about the Denver Residential Market, kindly let then know this little fact. In the long run, we will balance out to a more “normal” market where buyers continue to have a greater opportunity to buy, and sellers will have to clean up, paint up and fix up before going on the market at the most responsible price.

In the end, remember, AI, Zillow, Open Door and all the rest can’t smell, hear or council for you. Our boots are on the ground for you everyday. Please take advantage of that fact…tc

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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07/05/2023 #Kaboom #JoeyChestnut #DenverMarketWatch

Posted on July 5, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

It was a crazy night of pirotechniques, wind and rain; lots of rain!

What did the last 7 days look like in the Denver MLS System? Here you go…

New Listing (1014) Typical of last week’s numbers.
Coming Soon (247) Up slightly from last week.
Back On Market (188)
Price Increase (116)
Price Decrease (894)
Pending (1174) Kind of a good number for a holiday week.
Withdrawn (156)
Leased (74)
Closed (1259) Last week was the end of the month explaining such a good number.
Expired (397) This number is clearly higher than normal. Some sellers giving up?

Last week’s numbers show no real slow down from the holiday week. In fact, some of the numbers are very good. It will be very telling over the next few weeks to see if the summer malaise kicks in like years past. Only time will tell!

People often ask me what is happening in our luxury market specifically. Here you go for the over $2M segment of our market.

Clearly 2021 and 2022 were record breaking windows in time, but if the second half performs like our first half of 2023, we will see 2023 competing for at least 3rd place and possibly 2nd place. This market segment and price range has matured quickly in our metro area.

In the meantime folks, we continue to see buyers buy and sellers sell. Sometimes it is different than years past, but with high rates, economic uncertainty, local and world events, Americans still find the security of homeownership one of their top priorities.

Whether you think you can or can’t buy a home please remember this, Joey Chestnut ate 62 hotdogs and buns in succession this weekend. I personally believe it would be easier to buy a house!

WE can help you get there whether you are coming or going…tc

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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06/27/2023 #StayingInPlace and #AgeingInPlace

Posted on June 27, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Folks,

AS we come to the end of the sixth month of the 23rd year of the new millenium, it’s hard not to be struck by the speed of time. This year is half over already!

The question coming up over and over again, is why is our inventory so low. With interest rates so high, why don’t we see inventory compounding?

Because of rates, owners are #StayingInPlace, and because about 42% of homes are owned “Free and Clear” owners are aging in place too. Finally, with market rates roughly at 7%, in general, most have no desire to leave that low rate mortgage. As a result, #StayingInPlace is the new battle Cry!

Let’s look what happened over the last 7 days in the Denver’s MLS System.

New Listing (1359) This is a strong number, but for a mid-season week, it is not great.
Coming Soon (139) This number is well below previous weeks.
Back On Market (256)
Price Increase (136)
Price Decrease (1274)
Pending (1291) This too is a strong week, but not great.
Withdrawn (196)
Leased (102)
Closed (1187) Considering how busy June has been with holidays, graduations and weather, just another average week here.
Expired (154)

AS we drift toward the #DogDaysofSummer, let’s look at the total number of active SFRs in our market. With just 4,931 Active Listings, this is virtually unchanged from last week. We can see from the Chart, the summer numbers are rounding off as in years past. Nothing new to see here.

As we go full on into summer, let’s see how strong our headwinds become. Keep in touch and never let the process inhibit you. Ask questions, prepare yourself, and be ready when opportunity does present itself.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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Gen Z got it right! Homeownership Matters!

Posted on June 25, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

DID YOU KNOW?

Gen Z Home Owners Ahead of Millennials (And Their Parents, Too)

A new study of home buyers found that the Generation Z generation – the youngest eligible to buy a home – are pulling ahead of older generations regarding home ownership, buying more homes than their parents did when they were in their 20s.

Roughly 30% of Gen Zers, aka Zoomers, owned their home in 2022.
Millennials only managed to represent 28% of 2022 home owners.
Generation Xers born between 1965 and 1980 came in lower, at 27%.
If you haven’t guessed how the 20-somethings of Generation Z managed to come out on top, they had an unfair advantage: the record-low interest rates of 2020 to mid-2022. When Millennials reached their 20s, they faced a totally different economic market. The older Millennials entered the workforce during the 2001 recession, while the younger ones faced the 2008-2009 financial crisis while still in their first jobs.

Another Gen Z strategy: buying in smaller cities where housing was much less expensive. While they headed to places like Virginia Beach, Millennials favored cities like Seattle, where homes cost literally three times as much.

Last but certainly not least: considering that Gen Z workers entered the workforce when remote and hybrid work was becoming the norm, this put them in a better position than the Millennials and Generation Xers, who often found themselves tied to a single location.

This article was pilfered from our preferred lender’s newsletter with consent. Thanks to Prosperity Home Mortgage and John Pavlakovich The point is, no matter the generation, #HomeownershipMatters

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06/20/2023 #Father’sDay #TheLongestDay

Posted on June 20, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Everyone!

If you haven’t done your research on Father’s Day recently, this link will fill in the blanks. The longest day of the year is what we call the summer solstice. And, you can learn all about it here. But, if you want the easiest way to remember all this, Father’s Day is the third Sunday in June, and the summer solstice is either the 20, 21, or 22. One in the same? You be the judge.

This week in Denver’s MLS looked like this.

New Listing (1266) Not a bad week!
Coming Soon (234) This is strong.
Back On Market (236)
Price Increase (142)
Price Decrease (1202) This is troubling to see. This is too high.
Pending (1278) Another strong week.
Withdrawn (168)
Leased (85)
Closed (1046) Not bad, but lagging a little bit.
Expired (152)

Overall, as we roll into the summer malaise, we continue to maintain a healthy data set but as Megan Sisk Aller stated this week…

During summer, we typically observe a decrease in buyer demand, partially influenced by factors such as vacations, family commitments, and the overall seasonal slowdown. Simultaneously, the supply of available properties may experience a slight increase as homeowners choose to list their homes before the summer ends or consider delaying their plans until the fall.

Let’s never forget, the residential housing market in Denver ebbs and flows. It only takes an excess of 1,000 new listings to change the balance. We may see this in the next 1-3 months.

How are we doing with supply? Our total of Active Listings this week at 4,807 SFRs is not a back breaker at all, but it does show we are consistently increasing month over month, week over week.

It’s a waiting game now. Will supply build like years past, or will we act more like 2021 and 2022. Only time will tell.

In the meantime, I am so grateful for my family. The gathering on Father’s Day, Christmas at the beach and just the related fun. It’s a good life!

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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06/13/2023 #DenverNuggets #WorldChampions

Posted on June 13, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning My Town Nation!

After 46 failed tries tries, the Denver Nuggets have finished on top as World Champions on their 47 try for 2023! This is pretty special considering the fan support holding strong through all those years! Congratulations Nuggets!

The moral of all this is to never, never, never stop trying.

Anyway, this week in Denver Residential Real Estate, what have we learned? Do we have stormy skies on the horizon? This is what it looked like in Centennial a couple of days ago, so, maybe this is a premonition to our market.

In the last week, we have been able to negotiate a Listing below its list price, and we have had to have a price reduction on one of our listings. It is not atypical to have a post Memorial Day malaise, but I’m not getting a good feeling here. This week in the MLS, it looked like this.

New Listing (1451) This is the biggest weekly New Listing number this year!
Coming Soon (247) This is a solid number for next week’s number too!
Back On Market (269)
Price Increase (134)
Price Decrease (1134) This has been a nagging number. Predicting market response to a new listing is as difficult right now as I’ve experienced in all my years!
Pending (1357) This is a solid number, especially as we move into these weeks of malaise!
Withdrawn (163)
Leased (73)
Closed (1099) This is relatively weak compared the last 60 days. Sometimes the first few days of a new month do not have the closing activity of a week toward the month’s end.
Expired (163)

So, as we see current mortgage rates try to define themselves as a new normal, a rush across the market to normalize them with Seller Concessions has clearly made their presence known. My guess is this participation on the seller’s part will only increase in the coming weeks and months. After 10 years of “free” money from the Fed is not going to be erased easily or quickly. We have some headwinds here.

Where has the total number of Active Listing gone during this last week?

We have observed a very small incremental change in the total number of SFR Active Listings in our market over the last 4 months. This can be reported as a move toward a more normal market where buyers could possibly have choices or, it could be proven historically this is just not enough inventory and a relative shortage. Either way, I believe the change is positive. It is giving buyers a chance to visit the Listing more than once. Sellers are being forced to make quick choices, and as a representative in the marketplace, it allows us some breathing room. Whichever it is, it is a change, and will all change comes opportunity. Let’s “Keep our eyes on the road and our hands upon the wheel”…

As always, please do not hesitate to to spend time with us discussing your needs, wants and non-negotiables. We are finding this a particularly good market to be a move up buyer and first time seller in this market. Being married to your current interest rate may be holding you back from a great opportunity out there.

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

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06/06/2023 #Happiness #MMOR

Posted on June 6, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Blog Friends!

Dwelling Deficit/Something to Ponder

“Between 2000-2010, the housing stock rose 15.8 million and the number of households rose 11.2 million. Thus, vacancies rose 4.6 million and the vacancy rate rose 2.4 percentage points. There were plenty of houses. Conversely, between 2010-2020 the number of units increased just 8.8 million, but the number of households rose 10.1 million, resulting in vacancies falling by 1.3 million and the rate falling by 1.6 percentage points, a housing shortage.” 

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Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

#Happiness can be learned. You personally control at least 25% of your happiness. Learn the behaviors necessary to achieve it. #Hint: Don’t take your phone to the bathroom with you…

Your #MentalMapofReality is important too! Do you have a Map? If not, find one!

With these ideas out of the way this morning, let’s jump right in. What did Denver’s MLS look like over the last 7 days. Compromised by a long weekend and the beginning of “summer”, did we suffer some lag in the market. Let’s look!

New Listing (1369) This is a good number. This reflects no loss from the long weekend.
Coming Soon (240) This too is strong!
Back On Market (269)
Price Increase (189)
Price Decrease (1155) Wow!!! This is HUGE. This market requires the right bait!
Pending (1284) A good week!
Withdrawn (191)
Leased (93)
Closed (1588) WOW! End of the month strength here, Buyers and Sellers finding their way to the closing table in spite of all the #BlackSwans!
Expired (364)

Rain, Strong Demand and spring holding on. It’s never been this green over the last 30+ years. Just look at this! And, I can argue, this is a great market for buyers and sellers too!

This is not Ireland, it is the Mile High City of High Desert Plains. All the reservoirs will be full this year!

Now, let’s look at the number of Active Listings over the last 10 years and see how the “Mile High City” is fairing.

With just 4,485 Active SFR Listings in and around the Metro Denver Residential Market Place, this is lower than last week, and still lower than 8 of the last 10 years. Take a look!

This is another strong May into June Season. Let’s not forget how seasonal swings in the marketplace will affect this market in the months ahead. We should start to see Active Inventory climb over the next couple of months. Buyers, pay attention to this!

As always, this is only a snapshot into Denver’s single family residential market. Let’s keep a close eye on this. We’ll be here for you to deliver your #happiness and help you with your #MMOR. Thanks for being there with us, and I’ll be back next week…tc

TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com

“Jump in, the water is warm…”

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05/30/2023 #MemorialDay #TheUnofficialFirstDayofsummer

Posted on May 30, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Good Morning Everyone!

We made it through a weekend of hotdogs, pools and thunderstorms in honor of our fallen. I have often thought there should be a better reckoning with out service people who fought in wars and came back with memories from the war zone they’d much rather forget, As my father once said to me, “War is bad”. And, it still is…

For all these reasons, Memorial Day is often sold as the first day of summer. “Memorial Day often has been associated with the unofficial start of summer, because it can coincide with the end of the school year and because in much of the country, it’s when pools and public beaches open for the season.”

There’s much history in just this one row at Ft. Logan National Cemetery, and there is something meaningful about visiting our parents there. Solemn but connected. Amen

Well, this week Denver’s MLS reported much of the same as previous weeks, but in much smaller numbers than earlier in the month.

New Listing (1017) Not a very large number here, but comparable to the number of closings!
Coming Soon (262) A bit higher, but not Earth Shaking.
Back On Market (218)
Price Increase (109)
Price Decrease (820)
Pending (1083) Not a big number, but certainly in line with the other numbers.
Withdrawn (137)
Leased (64)
Closed (1021) Not much to brag about her, but still keeping pace with the others.
Expired (128)

I guess what we can take away from this week’s numbers is total counts are down, but at a level equal to their corresponding numbers, so, no harm no foul and the “Beat Goes On”…

Where has the total number of listings gone? Let’s see…

We have healed since the Interest Rate onslaught of Last June. We only have 4,424 total SFRs Actively Listed in the 11 county MLS Area. This would be considered a shortage at any other time, except, With rates bouncing off the highs of 7% not many are moving either. “Where would I go, I have a 2.99% rate on my current residence!”

With all this said this morning, we have celebrated an important weekend and we are still here, and we wish the same for you. As always, don’t hesitate to pick of the phone and give us a call….tc

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05/23/2023 #Cheap or #Inexpensive

Posted on May 23, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Hello Everyone,

WE hope each and everyone of you are living the life you deserve.

Today, I want to talk about #Cheap and/or #Inexpensive. The word #Cheap has infiltrated our vocabulary as a society like the plague. Everything is #Cheap or #Cheaper. I’m sorry, but when discussing homes in excess of $500,000, I just don’t believe CHEAP is the appropriate word usage. What’s CHEAP about $500,000?

On the other hand, when discussing issues of value about homes, to me, the usage of #Inexpensive or #Expensive seems more appropriate. I’d love to have you share your thoughts. Please use the comment box below.

In Denver over the last few days, there is nothing in our marketplace making our homes #Cheaper. Take a look…

New Listing (1257) Not a bad week, but certainly not Earth Shaking!
Coming Soon (156) Lover then last week!
Back On Market (262)
Price Increase (148)
Price Decrease (1085) This is HUGE. What is up with Broker/Seller pricing?
Pending (1514) This is a very good week!
Withdrawn (161)
Leased (91)
Closed (1296) Not bad at all here. Up a little bit…
Expired (201)

Week in and week out, we continue to present strong numbers of a market well away from external characteristics which could cause decay. I’m impressed!

We have fewer listing now than we did a year ago and rates are almost double what they were then. Here’s what it looks like…

I believe, if the bond market were to change course and go lower, we would have huge supply problem in the Denver Residential Market. Can’t see the FED lowering rates anytime soon…

Overall, WE continue to see our Buyers and Sellers reach agreements to buy and sell that approach a more fair market than one year ago, but there are some cracks around the edges in more distant suburbs and remote areas where market times are longer and prices are down from years past. But, are they #Cheaper or less #Expensive?

You decide…tc

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05/15/2023 #MillerMoths

Posted on May 15, 2023 by Dee & Tom Cryer

Why are miller moths in my house?

“But the miller moth — which Harp said gets its name from early settlers who thought the moth’s scales (when shed) resembled grain mill dust — is mostly attracted to light and heat in homes and automobiles. Harp recommends shutting doors tightly and turning off lights to keep the insects out of homes.”

Who knew?

This is from the Kobeissi Newsletter. I follow this for its great ideas. What do you think of this one?

“The supply of new homes for sale is down nearly 30% since September 2022.

Millions of homeowners are locked-in to sub-3% mortgages and do not want to sell.

In result, rapidly rising rates have barely made a dent in the housing market.

Soon, the Fed will begin cutting interest rates again.

Once mortgage rates begin to pull back again, the housing market may be setting up for another run higher.

As long as mortgage rates are above 3%, supply is likely to remain tight.

The bubble gets bigger.”

From the… https://www.thekobeissiletter.com/

So, what happened in the Denver MLS this week?

New Listing (1244) This is a solid performance here. Give us some new clean inventory!
Coming Soon (275) This is up a bunch from last week!
Back On Market (205)
Price Increase (130)
Price Decrease (867)
Pending (1265) This is a solid number too!
Withdrawn (167)
Leased (80)
Closed (1025) Once again, buyers and sellers are finding their way to the closing table…
Expired (143)

Not bad numbers at all, with the total active listings of both attached and detached, there is still less than 5 weeks supply in the surrounding 11 counties.

What’s up next? In about 2 months, the Fed will meet again, if we see no change in the Fed Rate, we may be off to the races. If we have another painful increase. In my mind, everything will be done to keep the pain in 2023, because you know what?, 2024 is an election year, and the paint will be coming out to make everything rosie…

In spite of all the headwinds and Black Swans in the water, Dee and I continue to work successfully with buyers and sellers. Experience counts. Don’t be fooled…tc

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