The Federal Reserve considers a variety of economic indicators, including employment levels, inflation rates, consumer spending, and overall economic growth. They also analyze global economic trends and geopolitical risks that could impact the US economy. Their decisions are based on data-driven analysis and careful consideration of market conditions.
My guess? Another .25 will hit the street. Count on it. I don’t know the number, but some number will have to feel pain before the fed lightens up! Nerdie economists have to exert their power; don’t they?
Let’s face it, many of say we don’t mind change, but we really don’t like change. When I learned the concept of “Planned Obscolesence” I was maybe 15 or a little younger. “Do you mean a company would purposely build a product knowing it could be better, but the next generation will help sales long term so the producer holds back now?” The auto industry, appliance industry, and I could argue home builders have done it too. For the most part now it is hidden by the slow trickle from more expensive new models over the years.
Are the #UnintendedCosequences of #PlannedObsolescence a customer tax? I could argue “Yes they are.” The break even analysis isn’t always a good thing for the customer! But, as the #Mandolorin would say, “This is the way…”
This morning, I’d like to keep it simple. Every politician will be advocating for #AfforabkeHouusing in the next election. When the election is over, nothing will be done to moderate building codes or reduce development costs, or mitigate impact fees, and I could go on and on, #KeepingItSimpleStupid or KISS is my theme.
So, I will revert to something my father told me more than enough times. “Don’t overlook the obvious.” So, my answer to all if this is, we can no longer be lazy voters. We have to challenge our elected officials, we have to be present, and we can’t assume they are working for our grandchildren. #MilkToast can’t stand on its own.
But, what happened in the Denver Residential Market this week? This is what the the Denver MLS gave us.
New Listing (1115) Not enough! Coming Soon (270) Back On Market (210) Price Increase (190) Price Decrease (850) Too many! Are original list prices too high, or is the market falling? Pending (1405) Strong week. The buyers are smart, hunting for the weak and tired seller! Withdrawn (131) Leased (76) Closed (1114) In spite of it all, Buyers and Sellers are meeting at the closing with Funds and Keys respectively. Expired (145)Very few sellers giving up!
This another week of statistics with no “Henny Penny” stories in Denver. Congratulations.
What about the bigger picture of total Active Listings? With just over 4,114 Active listings as we moved into April, this is the lowest listing count other than 2021 and 2022 in the last 10 years!
As you can see, we have left the shock of high interest rates far behind to last summer and no impact left for the summer of ’23. But, wait a minute, what are the headwinds, Black Swans and crises of 2023 to be? Nobody knows for sure, but the overall the economy will roll from one industry to the next. Turns out, our nation’s CEOs are no smarter, and no more prepared than the rest of us. Additionally, some are even so eager to jump in the fray, and they are willing to leave the stockholders “holding the bag”. Who are they working for? #TheTimesAreaChangin’
Let’s get right into it. Over the last seven days, our Denver MLS System has enjoyed an active market. We’ll take a look at this right now…
New Listing (1260) This is a strong number for supply. Buyers should be encouraged! Coming Soon (260) Additionally, a strong number here too… Back On Market (224) Price Increase (159) Price Decrease (759) Pricing after last year’s comps is troubling. Pending (1398) A very strong number after a long Easter Weekend. Withdrawn (136) Leased (82) Closed (1106) A good number, but whenever this number is less than New Listings, Supply will grow. Expired (233) I follow Expired Listings for a couple of zip codes, and Sellers are giving up, keeping supply down.
So, the long story short for the last 7 days, more of the same, but we can see a spring twist to this story where we should start expecting more fresh inventory each week for the next 60 days. Let’s see what happens.
Now, let’s take a look at the trend of inventory over the last 10 years to understand what’s happening now.
The number of Active Listings is up from last week with 4,023 which is up from 3,943. These numbers are in line with the last 10 years with generally lower rates than today. I would like to point out right here, #RATES go up faster than they come down. Don’t expect an interest rate drop in a hurry!
In spite of this, every transaction Dee and I have been apart of so far in 2023 has had a #MULTIPLEOFFER component to it. Good Inventory still has more buyers chasing the sellers offering. These offers are generally from buyers who can afford this new rate paradigm with perceived job security.
#DENVERMARKETWATCH is what WE do. We are watching out, so you don’t have too. It is a great time to be a seller, and it is a great time to be a buyer. Give us a call and let us show you how….tc
Let me leave you today with some #EASTERBUNNYMAGIC…TC
It is unlikely that companies like BlackRock will buy up all the houses in America. While there have been reports of large investment firms purchasing single-family homes in bulk, the overall housing market is still largely driven by individual homeowners and renters. Additionally, there are laws and regulations in place to prevent monopolies and ensure fair competition in the housing market. However, it is important to keep an eye on these trends and monitor any potential impacts on the availability and affordability of housing for individuals and families.
There are several laws and regulations that are in place to prevent monopolies in the housing market. The most notable of these is the Sherman Antitrust Act, which was enacted in 1890 and prohibits any actions or agreements that restrict competition or create a monopoly in any industry, including the housing market.
In addition to the Sherman Antitrust Act, there are other laws and regulations that help promote fair competition in the housing market. For example, the Fair Housing Act prohibits discrimination in the sale, rental, and financing of housing on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, familial status, or disability.
There are also regulations in place at the local level, such as zoning laws and building codes, which can affect access to housing and limit competition in certain areas. These regulations are typically put in place to maintain safety and preserve the character of a community, but they can also have unintended consequences for housing affordability and availability.
Do you have a “Saying” like these two on your cork board by your desk? Which one are you drawn to? Please share yours with the rest of us. I first heard #WintheDay 25-30 years ago. Some say it was a “Navy” thing, and in recent years it was change to “The Rent Is Due”. The change came from the realization that “Success is not Owned, but simply rented.” So, my new share is “The Rent Is Due.” #TheRentIsDue
This week we received this new Testimonial, and it deserves being shared.
“I very much enjoyed working with Dee and her team. We received multiple offers and their professionalism and integrity played a big role in choosing their offer. It would be a pleasure to work with them again.” -DW
Never underestimate how important it is to communicate well with the Listing Broker!
Now, let’s get down to Brass Tacks! We are going to measure the market of April, 2023 as accurately as possible… So, let’s look at the last 7 days of Denver MLS first.
New Listing (975) Wow, Easter sure slowed things down from last week!
Coming Soon (270) This is a little higher so the future’s so bright, we’ll all need sunglasses!!!
Except for 2021 and 2022, this is the lowest active listing count going into April for the last 10 years. The strength of our market continues to amaze me. Rates, wars, politics, equity, inequity, and more can’t seem to cause any realizable harm to the Denver Market.
If rates were to stay in the 5-6% range throughout the rest of 2023, we might see a balanced market. It’s a good life!
Remember, if you would like to enjoy the benefits of professionalism, integrity, experience and successful negotiations, The Cryer Team is here for you every step of the way. TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com Please contact us...tc
I’ll leave you today with a special image of western exploration…
Another week has passed, and we are well into spring now??? So, that means waking up to snow on the ground this morning. Low 20s, snow on the ground, and a busy day ahead of us; spring?
First off, #JohnnyDepp and #Barbie are turning 60 this year. Already for #Barbie and soon for #JohnnyDepp, makes me wonder. Is Barbie is too old for Johnny? All that aside, let’s dive right into this week’s Denver Stats.
Over the last 7 days, this is the activity in the Denver MLS System.
You are reading this chart correctly. Only 2021 and 2022 had fewer Active Listings at the end of March than 2023 does. If history continues to repeat itself in the Denver Market, we should see 4-5,000 active listings in the next few months?
With all our transactions so far this year, we continue to see multiple offers increasing price and the take of buyer conditions. In the historically strong neighborhoods the prospect of anything for sale under $600,000 is an impossibility at this point in the market. “Date the rate, but Marry the house” has become the battle cry for 2023.
I suppose my lead question was a bit childish, just tell me Johnny isn’t considering the prospect…
Have a great week, before we know it, the sun will be out and we will once again be complaining about how dry it is…
As always, don’t hesitate to call Dee or Tom. 303-773-3399, Thank You…tc
That’s right! The #FirstQuarter is gone but not forgotten. Much has happened in our Real Estate Careers, but during our conversation the other day, we noted how much has happened in just the last 3 months. The #Fed, #FDIC, #InterestRates, #SoftLanding, #HardLanding, #HousingBubble, #NoBubble, #War, #Treaties, #StrangeBedFellows, #Weather, and who knows what I’ve left out, but I know, there are many more topics in our daily lives in this 1st Quarter. As Bob Dylan would sing and still sings,
And it’s a hard, and it’s a hard, it’s a hard, and it’s a hard
And it’s a hard rain’s a-gonna fall
What about #ElonMusk? He took over Twitter. He purged Twitter’s workforce, and he went into battle with his Warriors. I had no doubts about it. He’s a survivor, a leader and a troublemaker! And, who says parents don’t play a roll?ClickHere
“– reached 500 million + total active users – released new features in the shortest time period in Twitter’s history – became the most downloaded & #1 news app – improved ad relevance – removed child porn – more output with less staff – reduced bots, scams & hate speech – improved engagements for advertisers – exposed truth via Twitter files – removed censorship – all time high daily users – restored free speech – reduced child sexual exploitation – community notes debunking propaganda & misstatements – launched Twitter Blue globally – introduced verified badges for company accounts – creator monetization & Twitter payments in making – open source code for recommended tweets next week”
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4.1M Views
When the scripted is finally written, this guy is going to play prominently. #RewritingRuleBooks
Moving on, #BirdWatching? What does Bird Watching have to do with Real Estate? Now I’ve been out a couple of times explicitly to spot birds and evolve into a “Birder”. Here’s the analogy.
Birds pick the premium spots to do what birds do. They are experts at avoiding predators, homing near water and food. They come in all shapes and sizes. Some can fly at the speed of SuperMan, and some can float on the air for what seems like forever. They are as diverse as we the people. Does this sound like residential real estate and how we select our homes?
Some of us want to soar in a Hi-Rise, or set up out in the country or on a mountaintop. Some of us have unlimited resources, and the rest of us have a budget. Spread your wings; live a little…
This weeks, looks very similar to weeks past, and I’m betting weeks further into 2023.
New Listing (1016) We’ve started spring, and we are not being deluged with New Listings…
Next up, a broad view of the Supply and Demand in the 11 counties making up the Denver SMSA
We have reached a level of Active Listings only achieved twice before in the last 10 years; in 2021 and 2022. We still have all the right statistical points of a “Seller’s” market. Every offer we have submitted for our buyers this year and every offer received on our Seller’s Listings has been in a multiple offer paradigm. This is not a time for buyers or sellers to be taking their eye off the ball.
Becoming an “A Student in the Front Row” takes time and effort. I you are not willing to be coached in the appropriate direction for every market segment, then most likely, you will be wasting your time in this market.
Lean in on our experiences. Take advantage of our resources. Never forget, we will be there for you after closing too!
Sometimes, I sit down to pen this blog, and I haven’t given it a single thought all week. As I’m always thinking, I cannot tell a lie! I’ve thought about this more than enough over the last 7 days. The events of the last 7 days have been transformative.
Banks Failing will create a ruckus in Washington, and in the name of protecting US, there will be changes. They will be slight, but there will be changes. Wall Street continues its upward trend, and life goes on. The coverage of this/these event(s) by our “journalists” will all boil down to He Said, She Said. We will be confused. Overall, however, it is a good life!
Over last 7 days in Denver have looked like this.
New Listing (937) Not showing a growth in supply for the spring market.
Let’s do a little math here. Assuming New Listings, Coming Soon and Back on the Market represent the new inventory on the market, half of these listings need at least one price reduction prior to going Pending.
How does the inventory look over the last 10 years?
Over the last 5 years, it shows how 2022 and 2021 were simply anomalies of super low inventory. In 2019 at this time of year, there were 4,674 Active Listings, in 2020 there were 5,232, in 2021 there were only 2,398, but then 2022 caused a Buyer Rush with only 1,929 until rates jumped into this market in June of 2022.
What does all this mean. 2023 Is starting out with not enough inventory for buyers, but Interest Rates have taken some buyers out of the market or lowered their qualified price. Anecdotally, we are seeing our buyers having to compete with other buyers on almost every contract we submit.
Being the buyer with Full Credit Approval, Funds in Place and Reasonable Expectations can still put you in the Front Row. Don’t cut corners. Be the buyer that’s the A Student in the Front Row!
I thought this was important to share. This was given to me many years ago, and it just keeps coming back, over and over, and over again. Keeping up with the market psychology is something we should all be doing.
My guess right now is clearly past Euphoria. After that, I’ve seen almost every emotion on the downward curve for both buyers and sellers. With such a bifurcated market, Not Buyers’ and Not Sellers’, this market has a way to go before it can filter out some of the cloudiness. If I was to guess, we will see relief sooner rather than later…
As always, we are in the market everyday. We see the successes, we see the failures, we know what wins for buyers, and we know what a seller needs to do to get top dollar. Pick of the phone and call. We will be there for you every step of the way….tc
MyTownCryer 
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