This week in the Denver Metro Area, we are seeing more of the same. Virtually no inventory growth and buyers voraciously chasing what’s still available. Follow my comments below.
New Listing (1141) This is a very low number. This is 10-20% recent weeks.
the last 7 days in and around Denver’s 11 counties
What about a more broad look at this market? As you can see, when more listings close than become active, the supply declines.
With incredibly low interest rates, limited supply and continued buyer interest, there is no discernable “Bubble” from my view.
Dee & Tom Cryer, SCRP Broker Associate THE CRYER TEAM Kentwood Real Estate 4949 S. Niagara St. #400 Denver, CO 80237 303-638-3202 TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com
Below is a chart reflecting further evidence, we are not moving toward an oversupply. Practically half the inventory of last year at this time is evident.
Available Inventory in the 11 County Statistical Area Covered
“Working with Dee and Tom is an absolute joy. They are knowledgeable, professional and responsive. We were fortunate to work with Team Cryer when we purchased our home in the Denver area, and insisted on using them when we sold our home when moving out of State. Both experiences were fantastic.”
Please subscribe, and get this weekly via email. Promise, you will learn something new every week.
Dee & Tom Cryer, SCRP Broker Associates THE CRYER TEAM Kentwood Real Estate 4949 S. Niagara St. #400 Denver, CO 80237 303-638-3202 TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com
As we start another week, to the outsider, this world would appear to be upside down and backwards. AS I write this, Wall St. Futures are down but not much. The “Stan” countries are reeling from the prospects of no US intervention moving forward. (Did you know “Stan” means “Land” in Persian?) OMG, can Haiti get it any worse? Earthquakes, Tropical Storms and abject poverty continue to plague the little country. A SPAC created by a Wall St. stallworth is being challenged by the SEC. And, I could go on and on, but for the most part, we soldier on, day in and day out. All this makes me recall a Grateful Dead Song,The Wheel. It goes something like this…
“The wheel is turning and you can’t slow down, You can’t let go and you can’t hold on, You can’t go back and you can’t stand still, If the thunder don’t get you then the lightning will...”
Over the last 7 days in Denver’s MLS system, we continue to see the same revelation as last week and all the 2021 weeks before. WE continue to see more active listings become Pending and more Pending Listings become Closed reflecting a continuing “Sellers’ Market”…
New Listing (1168)This number is so low, anyone forecasting a change to a Buyers’ Market may need to take another look!
Above, Denver’s MLS Data for the Last 7 Days in 11 Counties
Below, you will see even more verification for my hypothesis of inventory shortage and buyer demand…
Any gains of inventory we felt over the months since April appear to have been all but washed away by August. Keep in mind, today’s inventory in Denver is almost half of that in September of 2020. Let’s understand, Denver enjoys positive employment growth, and it also enjoys tremendous business creation. Couple that with events of the last year surrounding the COVID Lifestyle of remote working, and we have all the makings of continued strong demand for homeownership.
So, today, I will leave you with this image. From over 26K listings to under 5K in listings during the last 10 years. I’d buy into this market, and at the same time, try to lock up as much 3% money as the bank would allow. Enjoy…tc
Dee & Tom Cryer, SCRP Broker Associate THE CRYER TEAM Kentwood Real Estate 4949 S. Niagara St. #400 Denver, CO 80237 303-638-3202 Tom@Kentwood.com
Denver’s Residential Market continues to soldier on in spite of the media’s charge to kill the market. I counted 5 articles between this week and last week extolling the end of Denver’s Booming Residential Market. This week’s data certainly does not offer any support to that hypothesis. Rates are still great and demand is present.
Week over week, fewer listings than contract and closings. Coming Soon Listings are backing down too. With that being said, we are seeing a more price reductions, but “Sellers want next year’s prices and Buyers want last year’s prices”.
New Listing (1340) A nice number, but clearly nothing dramatic here. We still need more listings.
Isn’t it beautiful? An increase in inventory, but sales are still crushing it! This may turn into a market with more of a balance where buyers have a fighting chance. That would be great for everyone. I hate to be old fashion, but when a buyer has to make a purchase decision after a 15 minute showing and maybe give up an inspection and an appraisal and more, that’s just not a fair market, and I believe when someone is buying or selling the most expensive asset in their family, the sides should not be stacked too far in one direction. BUT, that’s just me.
Long story short, Denver’s Residential Market is doing quite well, thank you very much, and will continue to do so. Rates continue to be very attractive and at 2021 lows last week. More to come, stay tuned in and #Subscribe.
Thank You…tc
Dee & Tom Cryer, SCRP Broker Associate THE CRYER TEAM Kentwood Real Estate 4949 S. Niagara St. #400 Denver, CO 80237 303-638-3202 Tom@Kentwood.com
“Worked with Tom and Dee Cryer and they were nothing short of spectacular. Very professional from start to finish. I’ll spare the long story and keep it short: If given the opportunity, work with The Cryer Team!” Ryan…
It’s not in our natures to “brag” but, every once in a while, it’s important to express the nature of our Client – Broker relationship. Dee and I take great pride in our record of successful transactions for both Buyers and Sellers. Year in and year out, about 85% of our transaction list is a direct reflection of past client and their referrals. Working with people we know, respect and enjoy is very fulfilling. If you’ve ever been exposed to the “Butterfly Effect”, we like to think with each move, we are helping our client’s positive impact on the world around them.
So, what happened in Denver’s MLS over the last 7 days? And, why do we like to employ Tuesday to Tuesday? Simple, I have found using other days of the week to compile our data causes some unpredictable swings to either too many Pending Listings or too few New Active Listings. So, this is what you get; a consistent report presented most Tuesday Mornings with my personal commentary.
New Listing (1310)This number is very consistent with previous weeks, and we still need more new listings! Getting ready to move?
So, what does the broader market have to tell us this week Tom?
11 County Active Listing Count 2020-2021
Above you will see sometime during March 2021 we hit bottom with our supply. Although, we have slowly drifted toward more inventory in the months since, we are nowhere near historic levels of years past, and not even close to 1 year ago which was still a very strong Seller’s market. Long story short, no “Bust” in this market anytime soon.
What does this mean for you? Going into this market without the appropriate presentation, professional representation and/or a bit of courage, you will soon find yourself in a very uncomfortable position with possibly many dollars at risk!
So, give us a call and let’s make your realities come true…tc
Dee and Tom Cryer, SCRP Broker Associate THE CRYER TEAM Kentwood Real Estate 4949 S. Niagara St. #400 Denver, CO 80237 303-638-3202 TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com
My brother, Cliff, would have been 73 today. If you’ve lost a sibling, you know what this means. In his honor, in my world, this will be Clifford L. Cryer Day. Please let him be part of your day too!
This week in the MLS has been clouded. All over the press, there have been stories proclaiming “This is the end of the housing boom”... or something like this. I’m here to tell you, IT’S NOT TRUE! Buyers in Denver Metro are still suffering from a lack of inventory and competition from buyers of all types.
New Listing (1345)Wow! This NUMBER is so LOW! “Come on man”, sell your house!
The Chart below spells it out. We were short of inventory a year ago at 5,000 active listings and we are really short of inventory with +/- 2,500 active listings. Remember, we are a Metropolitan Area of +/- 3.25M people. Choice does not exist. Not only do buyers have to compete for a home, they have little to no choice.
ACTIVE LISTINGS OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS IN DENVER METRO
Long story short, there’s no bubble “right around the corner” in Denver. Until long term rates move higher than 3.5% and settle above 4%, Denver’s residential market will remain a “Seller’s Market” and Buyers will be the ones compromising.
URGENT! IF YOU ARE CONTEMPLATING MOVING, WE NEED TO CONNECT. PLEASE CALL, TEXT, EMAIL, SMOKE SIGNALS… WE NEED TO TALK…TC
Tom Cryer, SCRP Broker Associate THE CRYER TEAM Kentwood Real Estate 4949 S. Niagara St. #400 Denver, CO 80237 303-638-3202 Tom@Kentwood.com
What an age we live in! Billionaires in space, Cowboy Hats in space, Octogenarians in space, soon anyone can go to space. Did you ever want to be astronaut?
Please forgive me for missing last week’s post, but two new grandsons inside 2 weeks was just too much to keep up with. But we are back, but not much has changed. Rates are still unbelievable, new inventory is still in short supply. Pending sales are still strong, and we did have another strong week of contracts with both Pendings and Closings outpacing New Listings over the last 7 days.
New Listing (1372)Compared to weeks in June and earlier this month, this is a very weak number!
Did you ever want some historical perspective? This is the Active Listing count over the last 10 years. As you can see, over the course of the last few months, we have seen some increase in the number of active listings, but we are so far removed from the “foreclosure and short sale market” of 10 years ago. It is very close to 1/10th the number of listings we worked through 10 years ago. Unequivocally, no bubble here!
With the help we are getting from rates, it is the perfect time to be an active buyer. Locking in a long term rate under 3% might be a great goal to seek in this market, and now is the time to do it!
What have we learned? Well, soon, anyone will be able to go to space. Right after you lock down that house, start saving for your space trip. I bet Disney will soon have a ride called “Space Cowboy” by next season! Beyond space, however, we are learning, “Wabi-Sabi”. In other words when referencing this market: Nothing is Finished, Nothing Lasts and Nothing is Perfect.
And, that’s my point, with the market always changing whether buying or selling, everyone needs a Coach to help interpret exactly what is happening. Remember, these statistics are spread over 11 counties included with Denver. Arapahoe County might have extremely different ratios surrounding supply and demand than Park County. Residential Real Estate is Local. Every enclave, community, subdivision and block can have characteristics transcending overall market conditions. Let us be your Trusted Advisor through this transaction process. Let’s Talk – 303-773-3399
I don’t know why, but this morning, I was reading the lyrics from the musical Hamilton. I know, I didn’t see it in New York in the first 10 rows, but I watched it from the comfort of my own home in HD, and I enjoyed it very much. If you haven’t watched it, much of the play is about overcoming tragedy, interference, station and perception. Basically, it’s a lot like the world we live in right now.
Our update this week will focus on the holiday, its impact and what’s happening in the market anecdotally. I believe our own vision of the market is reminiscent of what’s really happening in the market, so I’m running with it.
When I look back at the successes our buyers have had in this market, they have been successful as a result of their bravery/courage/demeanor. “I want this house, and we’re not going to lose this time”. From “Cash” to 5% down to 20%+ down, our buyers found their “right” property, and ultimately, when the opportunity presented itself, they did not hold back. They went all in. For some buyers, earning this mindset takes some time. For other buyers, all it took was the right property. Basically, bringing out one’s courage to act is different for every participant in this market!
So, let’s see what happened this week with a long holiday weekend, etc.
New Listing (912) After a couple of weeks with more than 1,400 listings each week, the market retrenched to its stingy nature, and choice declined big time!
Coming Soon (294) HOWEVER, this is a larger than “normal” number. What’s to come?
Now, let’s look at the bigger picture. We started this view a few weeks ago, and we pontificated, it may be showing us some leading indicators for what’s to come. From my view, it would look like we have passed the low point for inventory, but with less than 2,500 listings for a metropolitan area of more than 3.25M residents, this is still just not enough supply!
The Last 12 Months of SFR Detached Inventory
When it comes to the Denver Residential Market, what works this week, is different than next week, and so on… One broker will encourage escalation clauses, and the next will forbid them. One broker will run with a lender letter, while another wants proof of full “Credit Approval” and verification of funds. AS the World Turns, we have to get out there everyday and “Skate to where the puck will be”. This is no time for running behind. We believe in getting out in front of market, and from all appearances, this is THE best strategy.
So, here are the lyrics from Hamilton. His perseverance is a good lesson for us. Your home search will not be this hard, but the lyrics provide a level of perspective when you find out on “Monday Morning” you lost.
“A ship in harbor is safe — but that is not what ships are built for.” — John A. Shedd
Is this a metaphor for #Homeownership? Let’s see. A participant in this residential market is completely safe staying put. The participant’s goal, however is to move. They want to move up, price or size down, move for employment or family or lifestyle, etc. So, unless the participant leaves the #safeharbor, their goal remains unrealized. Right now, the fear in our market has been magnified by all the things that can go wrong. The truth of the market is simple, and it’s always been this way, “Buyers want to buy, and Sellers want to sell”. As a broker participant in the marketplace, it’s our job to keep the problems at bay.
Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve been observing a change in trend. Let’s see here what this week has for us in the Denver MLS System over the last 7 days.
New Listing (1500)This is the trend we’ve been seeking. Over 1,500 in a single week; Brilliant!
Coming Soon (115) This number, however, is well below recent weeks! Does this trend have legs?
Price Decrease (565)Pay attention here… Sellers are coming out too strong with their list price, and this is a huge number adjusting to the real market!
Pending (1956) Once again, Buyers are finding their way. This is a huge number!
So, I’ve been doing my research on this market week in and week out. We wrote about the demographic shift happening last week. Long story short, Boomers are aging in place longer than previous generations and Millenials are reaching their “Home Buying” age in greater numbers all at the same time. This coupled with the normal pressures of market participants and a shortage has resulted. What’s a broker to do? Don’t shoot the messenger, but this phenomenon could continue into 2030 according to some of the number crunchers. Now, interest rates and employment prospects always play a key role in the demand for homeownership, and only time will tell.
Has the Market Changed?
I talked about the potential for a more buyer friendly market as we roll into the second half of 2021, and now for the last 3 months, there is some indication the Single Family Detached Residential Market in the 11 counties included in the Greater Denver Metropolitan Area is providing some proof to this Hypothesis. It is important to look closely at the weekly numbers, but it is necessary to look at the broader picture over a wider time frame to see clearly. I hope this rings true to your thoughts.
I’d love to hear your comments. Please do not hesitate to call…tc
We are constantly asked, when is this market going to let up and have mercy on at least a few buyers? That question is the segue into this weeks reference point. Demographics are playing a huge roll in all this demand and limited supply.
“If you’re hoping for a housing crash to buy at lower prices you could be waiting a long time. There is going to be a steady stream of 20 and 30-somethings looking to put down roots for the rest of this decade.”
Conversely, will there be any help on the other end with Boomers giving up their homes and adding to supply?
“My sense is there will be a pickup in Boomers selling their homes in the 2nd half of the 2020s and lasting until 2040 or so. These homes will be older – and most will need updating – but many of these homes will be in prime locations. We should also see a pickup in retirement community construction during that time period.”
So, there you have it. The long story short, Demand will outstrip Supply for at least 5 or 10 based on Demographics. If you would like to study some more on this here’s where it originated.
With all the demographic talk above, markets are still LOCAL, and our local data says, we may have seen the last of “No Inventory” moving to at least a market of “Coming Soon” maybe. Let’s keep an eye on this, andplease tune in next week…tc
MyTownCryer 
You must be logged in to post a comment.