Now is not the time to PANIC. The stock market will swing like a pendulum as it always has. But, everyone wants to know. What is the #BlackSwan to hit the Denver Residential Market?
Right now, everything is great. Low rates and an expansion of inventory for the typical buyer. Over the last few days, we have hit 3.75% for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage! This is fantastic for a buyer. We have over 9,000 active listed resale properties for buyers to peruse. So what’s the #BlackSwan?
Well, if we look closely at this week’s MLS stats, a few things are becoming very apparent. First, all the way at the bottom. 476 Sellers have let their listings expire, and another 1,645 sellers have reduced their list price. These numbers express a lot of seller disappointment in the market place.
On the other hand, with these expirations and price reductions, 1,495 buyers have found a property to place under contract and another 1,692 have gone to closing. No #BlackSwan here!
Let’s look at all the numbers now:
New Listing (1486) Very healthy and happy for buyers.
Back On Market (295)
Price Increase (139)
Price Decrease (1645) Sellers want to get it done!
Under Contract (1495) Not a bad week, but no record setter!
Sold (1692) I’d love to see a number like this every week!
Expired (476) Disheartened sellers are apparent in the market!
So, I know you’re waiting for my answer. What is the #BlackSwan sneaking up on us? Our #BlackSwan is affordability! Everyday, I hear over and over and over again. “Denver seems so expensive”. When affordability hits, it hits slowly. It creeps up on the market. Sooner or later, the buyer is pinched to the point of, “Let’s rent”.
Well, I don’t think this will happen immediately, but the combination of so many apartments coming on the market at the same time will be impactful, and buyers will stay on the sidelines until they perceive an affordability gap. For the time being, our #BlackSwan is on the sidelines, but always nearby, but it can approach quietly, without motion, without anyone seeing it. It will be interesting to see how our market adapts to this #BlackSwan…
As always, our job is to protect you from the #BlackSwans in the market place. Call us, let’s spend an hour coming up with plan. Dee and Tom Cryer 303-773-3399 or TheCryerTeam@Kentwood.com Thank You!
be careful out there!!!
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