MyTownCryer

WOW!  I just can’t shout loud enough to be heard.  Over the last week, once again, we continue to put more under contract than we add new listings; by a HUGE margin.  This is clearly being demonstrated in our “core neighborhoods” with multiple offers still ruling the day.  Buyers are finding out about new listings simply on whispers.

Does that garage sale mean they are selling?  It’s not quite that easy, but we have stopped at a lot of garage sales over the last couple of months.  Maybe it’s true.  Maybe we do need a bigger town…

Look at these numbers below:

New Listing (1015) We put 500 more under contract than we listed.
Back On Market (174)
Price Increase (157)
Price Decrease (480)
Under Contract (1502) We are not bringing enough new listings to the the market!
Withdrawn (106)
Leased (28)
Sold (993) Another great week of closings.
Expired (141)

Long story short, if you scroll back over the last 8 weeks and catch up on these posts, you will find this trend is the “normal” in our market so far in 2018.  We’ll keep you posted, but you need to follow us!

Bullish on Homeownership

Wow!  Let me apologize right up front.  What more can I say.  This market is not letting up.  Take a moment and look at our MLS activity over the last 7 days.  Remember, this is January, the first month of the year.  Yes, we are still bullish on the market.  All the signs are present.

When all is said and done, the Denver Market is setting itself up again for another run of short supply, multiple offer activity and price appreciation.

Rates are still low, rents are still high.  It just might be the time to be a seller and a buyer.  This is a great move-up market!

Supply vs. Demand

OK, we’re back to putting more under contract that we list.  Dee and I have been fielding calls during these first two weeks of the year from potential buyers.  Where are our sellers?  We need listings!

As you can see below, we placed 400 more listings under contract than came to the market.  This is killing us for our buyers.  If you have any intention of selling Denver Real Estate in 2018, now is the time to get started.

As we move into 2018, let’s keep an eye on this phenomenon.  If supply goes much lower, there will be bidding wars like never before.  I can’t over emphasize what a great time it is to be a seller.

As always, this data is straight from our MLS System.

I’ve been reviewing the last ten years to make sense of it all.  Sometimes, when one is in the trenches day in and day out, it becomes difficult to see the forest for the trees.  With a little investigation, however, there is much to be learned from this chart.

During 2010, we had an incredible incoming supply of New Listings, but our lowest level of demand was fueled inventory into 2011.  As we came out of the national recession, demand started to increase.  By 2013, “peak demand” had occurred, BUT, by 2014, inventory had declined to a point where we have now arrived at the start to a new year with limited supply and what appears to be insatiable demand.

Now, this is data from the 6 major counties surrounding Denver and not extending into Boulder on the north or El Paso on the south.

So, I’m going out on a limb, and I will unequivocally predict that demand will continue at current levels, but I think this year will see inventories increase around the edges.  Why?

Three main factors for more inventory and a slow down on price appreciation.

1. Interest rates are going to inch up.  This will take some buyer’s out of the market.
2. Affordability issues have already started to make an appearance.  In lower price ranges, buyers are already renting or staying in their rentals rather than “fight the battle”.
3. Last, but not least, new inventory is making its way to the market.  Builders are catching up with demand.  “Flippers” are not seeing the profits once found from their sinister acts.  This inventory may make it “as is” to the market for those adventurous owners.  And finally, this is my own opinion, the “Boomers” are going to finally give up on homeownership.  They will move to assisted living, in with family or out of state.

None of these items are going create huge margins of inventory, but they will make a dent, and we will take a “breather” for 2018.  With that being said, there will still be plenty of enclaves attracting multiple offers.  Close in 1st Tier communities will enjoy stronger demand than more removed 3rd Tier locations with longer commutes and builder competition.

With all this being said, Homeownership is an important component of any family’s pursuit of stability.  This chart of Average Sales Price over the last 10 years speaks to this well.

Embrace the market.  Now is the time to be a buyer, and it is still a great time to be a seller.