MyTownCryer

Supply vs. Demand

OK, we’re back to putting more under contract that we list.  Dee and I have been fielding calls during these first two weeks of the year from potential buyers.  Where are our sellers?  We need listings!

As you can see below, we placed 400 more listings under contract than came to the market.  This is killing us for our buyers.  If you have any intention of selling Denver Real Estate in 2018, now is the time to get started.

As we move into 2018, let’s keep an eye on this phenomenon.  If supply goes much lower, there will be bidding wars like never before.  I can’t over emphasize what a great time it is to be a seller.

As always, this data is straight from our MLS System.

I’ve been reviewing the last ten years to make sense of it all.  Sometimes, when one is in the trenches day in and day out, it becomes difficult to see the forest for the trees.  With a little investigation, however, there is much to be learned from this chart.

During 2010, we had an incredible incoming supply of New Listings, but our lowest level of demand was fueled inventory into 2011.  As we came out of the national recession, demand started to increase.  By 2013, “peak demand” had occurred, BUT, by 2014, inventory had declined to a point where we have now arrived at the start to a new year with limited supply and what appears to be insatiable demand.

Now, this is data from the 6 major counties surrounding Denver and not extending into Boulder on the north or El Paso on the south.

So, I’m going out on a limb, and I will unequivocally predict that demand will continue at current levels, but I think this year will see inventories increase around the edges.  Why?

Three main factors for more inventory and a slow down on price appreciation.

1. Interest rates are going to inch up.  This will take some buyer’s out of the market.
2. Affordability issues have already started to make an appearance.  In lower price ranges, buyers are already renting or staying in their rentals rather than “fight the battle”.
3. Last, but not least, new inventory is making its way to the market.  Builders are catching up with demand.  “Flippers” are not seeing the profits once found from their sinister acts.  This inventory may make it “as is” to the market for those adventurous owners.  And finally, this is my own opinion, the “Boomers” are going to finally give up on homeownership.  They will move to assisted living, in with family or out of state.

None of these items are going create huge margins of inventory, but they will make a dent, and we will take a “breather” for 2018.  With that being said, there will still be plenty of enclaves attracting multiple offers.  Close in 1st Tier communities will enjoy stronger demand than more removed 3rd Tier locations with longer commutes and builder competition.

With all this being said, Homeownership is an important component of any family’s pursuit of stability.  This chart of Average Sales Price over the last 10 years speaks to this well.

Embrace the market.  Now is the time to be a buyer, and it is still a great time to be a seller.

A common expression in this business has always been “A New Year and We’re All Starting from Zero Again”.  I’ve always understood the truth in this, but at the same time, I always believed a job well done in 2016 created referrals in 2017 and so on.  That’s the truth of the matter.

Additionally, as I observe this business change from a relationship based business into an internet lead “poptart” business to some degree, it has really always been this way.  Back in the day, today’s internet lead was called a “Floor Call”.  The floor call has become the push of a button on Zillow or Realtor.com.  We are starting to observe the unintended consequences of this consumer behavior.  In a real estate transaction, there is nothing more valuable than having an advocate.  The push of a button is easy, but a real teammate in invaluable when the waters get rough.

We are starting to sit at the “kitchen tables” of sellers this week.  They’ve have the perception appreciation has blessed them, and now they are ready for more.  Denver’s been good to us… Now is the time to make a plan.  Failure to plan is a plan for failure!

So, when the year starts over, we really aren’t starting from zero again, we really are the accumulation of experiences, contacts, clients, participants and more.  People are always watching us; all of us.  When good has been observed, that does not go unnoticed, and so often, what goes around comes around.

So as we “Start from Zero” one more time, let’s continue to become that participant with years of experience and not the one with one year of experience many times.

Let’s schedule some time to create your real estate plan in 2018.

People routinely overestimate or underestimate how much we work.  The statistics for the last 7 days give great insight into a Realtor’s World.  Although 1,500 closings a week during peak season, over 1,000 is very strong.

The point I am making is simple.  As Realtors, we are working year round, but not all at the same time.  The system works.  Even the disrupters like Zillow, etc. wouldn’t happen if “the system” did not work as well as it does.  We sell houses in May, and we sell houses in December.  It is a 24/7/365 business.  Unless you live on a north facing slope with a long driveway in a snowy climate, you are just as likely to obtain a sale in December as May.  Don’t hesitate to call, chat or email…tc

Bullish on Homeownership

If you have not been following this center of activity north of Denver’s CBD, let me tell you, there is something revolutionary happening.  Start peeling the layers back, and RiNo is making a huge statement with its developing “Innovation Center”.  Healthcare Innovation and Tech has never looked so prominent in Denver.

Egg Strategy is the latest healthcare company to join the roster of tenants at Catalyst Health-Tech Innovation (HTI) in RiNo.

Catalyst HTI

View Coverage of the Top 15 Moving Destinations by Metro Area for 2017:

1. Washington, DC
2. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX
3. Los Angeles, CA
4. New York, NY
5. Atlanta, GA
6. Austin, TX
7. Houston, TX
8. Philadelphia, PA
9. San Francisco, CA
10. Chicago, IL
11. Orlando, FL
12. Seattle, WA
13. Denver, CO
14. Boston, MA
15. Phoenix, AZ

Moving in 2018?  Give us a call, we can help in all cities everywhere!

This is the one you’ve been waiting for.  Under $400K just off Main Street on a quiet little circle with no traffic.  Finished walkout, views, deck, and more.  Please, come take a peek.

Run Our Virtual Tour

Supply vs. Demand

It is just hard to imagine a market like this.  Declining inventory and strong demand are keeping sellers in the driver’s seat, but recently in some communities and higher price ranges, buyers are starting to gain some traction with choice and pricing.

It is just a guess at this point, but there is some anecdotal evidence, affordability is starting to kickback.  2018 Will be a watershed year.  Buyers and Sellers will be facing off a price points never seen before in Denver.   Who will win?  We will have to wait and see, but the next episode will be worth waiting for.

Here are some follow up graphics on several submarkets.  Remember, if you have any questions, please contact us…tc